Good Morning,
Here are a couple of observations. The NFL is by far the most bet on sport in the USA. Pre-Season has started and sports bettors are very excited. All of the sudden, people are not paying as much attention to baseball.
This happens every year. When I looked at today's baseball games, the lines on the underdogs are coming in very high. This is great for us. We do not care if we are betting on a high profile game or on a game that is under the radar. Our goal is to make money.
You will see a good number of bets in baseball that might make you cringe. If you are a subscriber, play them.
There are handicappers that do bet on pre-seasonfootball games, but I am not one of them. The problem I have is that preseason is an audition for a spot on the team. Lst night I watched the Redskin-Steeler game. I lost count, but there were six or seven different quarterbacks that got in the game.
I might be leaving money on the table, but I know what works for me, and I will stick to first half money line baseball underdog plays and wait until the regular NFL season gets underway.
As a side note, if you like reading sports magazines, you can find whatever you are looking for at www.gamblersbookclub.com
I always get Phil Steele's College Review. I like to know what is going on with returning starters, etc.
But right now, we are focused on baseball! There is money waiting to be made
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
ps. contact me for subscription information
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Never Pay Juice
Good Afternoon,
Sunday we lost our LA Angels play vs Detroit. We had two of the best pitchers in baseball going at it (Verlander and Weaver). The line for the first five innings was LA Angels +120. We lost 2-0 , but that was a quality play.
I mentioned Sunday that the game was a toss up and that it depended on who showed up. Verlander of Detroit SHOWED UP and came close to pitching a no hitter.
To say that we made a quality play, but lost, sounds like "The operation was a success, but the patient died."
If I were not betting to make money, I actually would have taken the under in that game, which was a winner. The problem is that the line was 6 1/2 - 130.
At -130 you would need to win almost 57% of your plays just to break even.
At -120 you would need to win about 55% and at -110 you would have to win about 53% of the your plays to break even. Basically when you pay juice, also known as commission, vig or vigorish, you are in the hole before the game even starts.
If you make it a policy to never pay juice, you will automatically put yourself in a favorable position to win over the long haul.
George
703-217-0805
Sunday we lost our LA Angels play vs Detroit. We had two of the best pitchers in baseball going at it (Verlander and Weaver). The line for the first five innings was LA Angels +120. We lost 2-0 , but that was a quality play.
I mentioned Sunday that the game was a toss up and that it depended on who showed up. Verlander of Detroit SHOWED UP and came close to pitching a no hitter.
To say that we made a quality play, but lost, sounds like "The operation was a success, but the patient died."
If I were not betting to make money, I actually would have taken the under in that game, which was a winner. The problem is that the line was 6 1/2 - 130.
At -130 you would need to win almost 57% of your plays just to break even.
At -120 you would need to win about 55% and at -110 you would have to win about 53% of the your plays to break even. Basically when you pay juice, also known as commission, vig or vigorish, you are in the hole before the game even starts.
If you make it a policy to never pay juice, you will automatically put yourself in a favorable position to win over the long haul.
George
703-217-0805
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