First of all, I want to give credit to David Payne who wrote the following article. I thought is was very timely to explain why betting the first half of football games on the moneyline will make you money. Despite all of the
in-depth pre game analyses that go into football games on TV and the radio, the reality is that anything can happen. This is an example of what can happen in a football game that can make you a winner or a loser. If you bet underdogs on the money line you will make money! The following example is a point spread loss. We only play money line underdogs in football for the first half.
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David Payne writes:
It’s good to see football giving bettors an early kick in the gonads. It wakes us up and prepares for what promises to be a season full of bad beats. Be mindful of your composure this season. Don’t waste time beating yourself up over a bad pick; instead, use that time to focus on your next play. Keep your cool.
San Francisco, a 3.5-point favorite, led 13-3 late in the fourth quarter. If you were invested in the Vikings, you were miserable. Brett Favre ran just four plays, and the offense had done absolutely nothing.
Webb, the rookie quarterback for Minnesota , started the fourth quarter. But Minnesota fans weren’t exactly oozing confidence about a spread-covering drive.Then, like a surprise Jagerbomb, Webb changed everything. Out of the shotgun, he took off up the middle and scored on a stunning 48-yard scramble. The extra point made it 13-10 and simultaneously pissed off every San Francisco bettor that had San Francisco -3.5 points. Minnesota bettors suddenly had a winner with nine seconds to play.
But, wait, Mr. Webb was not through.
After recovering an onside kick, the 49ers unsuccessfully tried to run out the clock. They ended up punting with nine seconds to play.
The Vikings took over at their own eight. Instead of just running out the clock and not risking a silly injury on the last play of a meaningless preseason game, Webb took the snap out of the shotgun. He scrambled around, all the way back into his own end zone and was sacked for a safety. Nothing hurts more than the old dagger safety.
Final score: 49ers 15, Vikings 10. Ouch. In essence, Viking bettors that had +3.5 were celebrating victory until it was taken out of their hands in the last few seconds.
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Moral of the story....play 1st half money line underdogs because you never know what can happen. If you win only 50% of your bets you will be profitable.
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