Paralysis by Analysis

Yesterday I was in the car most of the day heading to Elkins, West Virginia for a visit with friends. I had the sports talk show on the radio and it nearly drove me crazy. They had a number of pundits giving their predictions on Sunday Night's Football game.

I think every small detail and matchup was evaluated. They even interviewed two of the player's mothers. I know some people can't get enough of this stuff, but when you are purely in the business to make money, much of it is not significant.

We had the Chicago Bears +150 for the first half. That simply means if the Bears were leading at the half $100 bettors would have won $150 (plus they would get their $100 back). The Giants were leading 3-0 at the half, so that was our only loss. $100 bettors lost $100.

If I polled 1000 people for an estimate half time score, I bet no one would have predicted the 3-0 score. I certainly would not have.

My point is as I have mentioned several times, is we do not predict scores. We simply try to identify underdogs on the money line that have a good chance of being ahead at the half. The second half has no bearing on what we do. Over time, we make a lot of money wagering this way.

Don't complicate things with a buffet of statistical comparisons. That only confuses people.

Use the K.I.S.S. concept ( keep it simple stupid.

People ask me all the time if I can teach them my system. Well, I can teach some basics, but after doing this for 17 years you definitely develop a sixth sense to figure what to do. That is the kind of thing I can't teach and the reason I offer my advisory service.

Most people do not have the inclination or desire to properly evaluate every game. I do. The moral is simple. Do not get caught up in the incredible myriad of available statistics and predictions. If you follow every play I recommend you will have ups and downs but I guarantee you will make money.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com