Doing a Parlay on Two Big Baseball Favorites

Good Afternoon,

I have an astute client that asked me if betting the two biggest baseball favorites in a parlay would be profitable long term.

With a two team parlay, both teams must win in order for you to win the bet. Baseball parlays work different than football or basketball pointspread parlays.

All baseball parlays are going to be on the money line. If you combine
two -200 baseball games in a parlay and you win them both you would risk $100 to win $100 (appoximately).

This is a very tempting bet, especially when you have two great pitchers going against two mediocre teams. If you win a couple of these in a row you will think that you have unlocked the key to winning during baseball season.

If things were that easy we could all make a bunch of money. Just think how nice it would be to get up each morning and bet the two highest baseball favorites in a parlay and be done with the day.

Years ago when I first came across this method of betting, I was very excited.

Unfortunately over the long term this approach will not make you money. I won't get into all of the statistical and mathematical reasons why.

What I will tell you is that the best teams will win about 60% of their games and the worse teams will win about 40% of their games. That is too tight of a difference to make any real money.

You might want to paper trade this type of bet in July to see what kind of results you get. You might have a winning month, but when you look at the big picture, this is not the way to go.

Stick with my plays and you will make money.