Betting the First Five innings

I am not the author of the following article. Credit should be given to Dave Carey.

The average length of a Major League Baseball game is more than three hours.

That’s a long time to sit around and wait as players chew double bubble, pick at their cleats and play with their batting gloves. It’s even more aggravating when you have big money on one of these matchups and shaky relievers, overweight outfielders and boneheaded managers bungle the end of what looked like an assured win.

Those factors and more are the exact reasons sharps are flocking to fatten their bankrolls much faster by playing five-inning lines.

“The best part is that you do not lose value on either the favorite or the underdog, depending on which you want to bet,” Covers Expert Matt Fargo said. “For example, the highest moneyline (on Friday was) Boston -195 with Daisuke Matsuzaka. The five-run line is -200 so there is not a big adjustment.”

But value is just the tip of the iceberg.

For starters, five-inning lines can be played the same way you bet a full MLB game – either with a runline or a moneyline. Nearly all runlines are simply plus or minus half runs, while most moneylines remain similar to those of full nine-inning contests. Totals also are adjusted accordingly. Typically, if a total is around nine runs for a full game, it will be around five for a five-inning wager.

Perhaps what many smart bettors like the most, however, is the fact that five-inning lines take bullpens out of the equation.

As bad as a team like the Astros have been, blowing seven saves hasn’t helped them much. And then there are the pens of the Orioles, Angels, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mets and Dodgers. Each of those relief units has allowed at least 10 home runs already.

“The biggest reason to get involved with first-half lines or five-inning lines for MLB is the bullpen issue,” Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach said. “Let's say I have found a matchup where Team A is crushing the ball, has a solid starter on the mound, but has a weak bullpen. Let's say that team is facing Team B, who is struggling at the plate, has a weak starter on the mound, but has a stellar bullpen. I may not trust Team A to win the full game because the bullpen mismatch could come into play. However, playing the five-inning line takes the bullpen mismatch out of the equation and provides great value.”

And just like this season, there have been several surprising teams making big bucks for those bettors who have been smart enough to tail them.

The American League West is where five-inning bettors have made the most green playing the moneyline this season. The Angels are an absurd 14-7-3, followed by the hot Rangers at 13-6-4 and the solid Athletics at 11-8-5. And then there are the Mariners. Anyone smart enough to fade the light-hitting doormats after last season have been cashing tickets left and right as the losers from the Pacific Northwest are a wretched 6-16-2.

The Angels and Athletics have been doing it with defense and pitching, posting an ERA of just 1.88 and 1.46 during their early runs. The Rangers, meantime, have done it with their bats, jumping out to early leads as they are posting an average of 3.35 runs over that span. And then at the bottom of the standings are the Mariners, who can’t do anything well. The team is crossing home plate an average of just 1.54 times in the first five innings while allowing an average of 2.83 runs in those games.

But there is plenty of value found in other divisions around the league.

On the road, the Marlins are just 1-6-1 over the first five innings, giving up an average of 3.25 runs in those outings. And not to pile on, but the Mariners are a wretched 1-10 in similar contests. In home games, the surprising Royals are off to a hot start at 9-3-2 with five-inning lines. Meantime, the Cubs couldn’t be much colder, going 4-8-2 in the first half of their first 14 games at Wrigley Field.