Recent Performance vs Year Long Stats

Good Evening,
Many very smart people, including baseball managers, have tried to analyze baseball games through the use of Sabermetrics, which in a nutshell is an intense crunching of past performance numbers to predict the outcome of future games. It does have merit, and I use that approach to some degree when I handicap games.

Reality is that the result of a particular game is totally random. Anything can happen. When you look at excellent hitters, for example, that have a batting average of over .300 you will see that over the course of a season they will have streaks and slumps. They are not going to consistently get three hits out of every ten at bats. It just doesn't happen that way.

What is really more important is "What have you done lately" That is a much better measure of how a player will do in their next game. The emotional analysis of a game is much more important to me than a team's year long record. I don't care if a pitcher is 2W-7L on the year. I care about his recent performance. Also, winning and losing are contagious, as are team pitching and team hitting. You will almost never see me bet on a team that has lost it's last three games. I simply do not adhere to the popular notion that a team "Is Due". Play close attention to momentum and recent performance.

When you do that and at the same time focus on money line underdogs you will be a long term winner.

George
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