Handicapping Pitchers

Good Afternoon,
In April we ended up +17.17 units and through May 12th we are up almost
3 units. Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month (a unit is the amount you bet). This is a perfect scenario for us to have another excellent month as we have over 1/2 of May to reach our goals.

We look at a lot of factors when making a play. When you compare pitchers for example, many people just compare ERA's. That is worthless.

The important things to look at are:

1. WHIP ( walks + hits divided by innings pitched.) The lower the number the better.

2. The ratio of a pitcher's ground balls outs vs fly ball outs. This can be
significant. We like pitchers that keep the ball on the ground
especially since we focus on the first five innings.

3. Recent performance is important, W/L record for the season is not. What a pitcher
did in the beginning of April has no reflection on on his next start in May or
June.

4. A pitchers performance against the team they are facing. It is true that some
pitchers simply do well when pitching in a ballpark that they like and some
simply do not do well in certain ballparks. I remember Michael Jordan saying
that he disliked playing in Detroit (you would not know that from looking at
his stats) because he felt their rims were too tight and not forgiving.

With all that being said, there are a lot of other factors to look at. Remember that our goal is to win 50% of our games (first five inning underdogs). Anything can happen. Every starting pitcher at the MLB level has a no-hitter in them.

Historically, when you look at no-hitters, at least half of them were acheived by one game wonders.

The above factors are just some of the things to look at. When handicapping sometimes it looks like a game has all the stars lined up for a win.

It does not work that way. There are no guarantees. We just put ourselves in a position where we feel that our team has a 50% chance to be ahead after five innings.

Over time, we will make money. We will experience winning and losing streaks, lucky wins and tough beats.

The fact that we only play money line underdogs helps to cushion the unexpected.

Please contact me if you have not yet received my free e-book or if you would like to more about how my my advisory service.

Regards,

George K
703-217-0805
gak555 @yahoo.com