Run Line Betting on Baseball

I just exchanged e-mails with a client about arbitrage betting. Arbitage betting is when you place a bet on both teams playing each other. You have to use two sportsbooks and the scenario has to be like this: If Boston is playing Cleveland and they are favored -150, if you find Cleveland at another sportsbook at +155 you can bet both sides and you can't lose. Very rarely happens anymore with American sports.

I do want to address a similar concept that involves betting both sides of a baseball game. We will use today's Texas vs Houston game as an example. Earlier today, Texas was -120 and Houston was +110. However, if you bet the runline, Texas was -1 1/2 +150. This means that if you bet Texas on the runline and they win by two or more runs you would bet $100 to win $150. You basically have taken a favorite and turned them into an underdog. Now, if you take this bet one step further and bet $100 on Houston +110 the only way you can lose if if Texas only wins by one run.

This is an extremely attractive bet and a lot of people bet runline favorites. The problem is that you will lose money over the long haul.

When I first learned this approach I thought I discovered the Holt Grail of Baseball Betting, but I didn't. If Texas were to beat Houston by one run you would actually lose both sides of the bet.

You might find a spot here or there where making a runline bet might make sense, but you will lose if you bet them long term. As an exercise, you might pick 3-4 of the top teams and watch what happens over a month's time if you played them on the runline. The problem is there are so many games where the favorite wins by only one run. As I mentioned, if you lose, you lose both bets. Stay away from runlines unless you are using fun money. Trust me, been there done that.

Focus on making money long-term.