Stay Away from Parlays

For many people parlay betting on the point spread is extremely attractive because of the nice take back. Typically, a $100 bet on a two team parlay will bring in $260 (plus you get your original $100 back if you win. As an example you might take Duke -7 and Stanford -5. Parlays always require two or more bets and all the teams have to beat the pointspead for you to win. Parlays account for 10% of betting, but the sportsbooks make about 30% of their profit from their parlay bettors.

Statistically You need to win about 33% of your parlay bets to make money. Yet, only 25% of 2 team parlay bets win. The odds get much worse if you do parlays involving 3 or more teams. Surely you will win some of your bets just like occasionally slot players will win the jackpot.

However, over the long term betting parlays is not a good proposition.

It Works If You Work It.

Merry Christmas Everyone,
I'm in a food coma right now. First of all, I want to thank Santa for giving us a 2W-0L start today as we won the first half of both the Boston vs Orlando and Miami vs. the Lakers.
I've talked to a lot of you recently and know that some people for various reasons are not making all of the plays. This blog might seem repetitive since I wrote about the same topic recently.
I understand that life gets in the way and that some people get gun shy if we have a couple of losing days in a row. But winning streaks and losing streaks are unpredictable. That is why I always emphasize to stay the course and make all of the plays. Your use of proper money management is crucial. Always bet the same amount on each game (flat bet)
Sometimes skipping plays will work in your favor if we have a losing day, etc. However, over the long term, our way of betting works. I just encourage you to make all the plays. You all have seen a tough run followed by an outstanding run. Treat your sports betting as an investment vehicle.

Happy Holidays,
George
703-217-0805

ps. If your subscription expires at the end of December of if you are new contact me about any specials that might be coming up for January.

35 College Bowl Games Coming Up

College Bowl Season is one of the most exciting times a year. While you cannot discount what happened during the regular season, bowl games are simply different. The key to making money our way is to determine which underdogs want it more and play the 1st half money lines underdogs.

We want to look for teams that are excited and motivated to be in the game. We will make a lot of money if we go against teams that although they are in a bowl, might be a little dissapointed in which bowl they are playing in.

Tune in for a lot of action.

If you want to subscribe to our bowl season special, just contact me at 703-217-0805 or e-mail gak555@yahoo.com Regular subscribers will already be receiving these plays.

Regards,

George

Stick to the Plan

Good Morning,
First thing I want to do is address this weekend's results. Saturday we went
0W-3L and lost 3 units. Sunday we went 4W-1L and won 5.15 units. Based on the feedback I received Saturday evening, I am convinced that a number of players are either, picking and choosing their plays or are not managing their money properly by betting 3-4% per play

This is a long term investment proposition and we will have ups and downs. Over all we will make a lot of money. A bad streak is part of what happens. Please stick to the money management principles and make all of the plays even if we have a bad day or week.

There is a natural tendency to sit on the sidelines after a tough day or in some cases to double up or increase the bet size to make up for a bad day

What we do will make money. Some of you have to stop thinking about this venture as gambling and start looking it as investing. We never know when we are going th have that huge month that will quickly wipe out any temporararily losses.

Clarifying First Half Money Line Plays

Many people, particularly those that have recently started still have a lot of questions about the difference between playing a game on the pointspread vs playing a game on the moneyline.

We only play first half moneylines because you make more money that way. The number of points a team is leading by or is losing by makes no difference. If your team is leading at the half you win the bet. If your team is behind at the half you lose your bet. If the score is tied at the half, you just get your money back as if no bet was made.

The big advantage we have is that when our teams win (we only bet moneyline underdogs), we win more money than if we lose a bet.

Let's look at the last two days of plays to see what happened. Assume that you bet $100 on each game (many people bet less) I am actually referring to Friday and Today as we had no bets on Saturday.

All of these bets were 1st half moneyline bets.

1. Auburn (L) -$100
2. S. Miss (L) -$100 - we were 0W-2L on Friday

3. Buffalo (L) - $100
4. Tennessee (L) -$100
5. Chicago (W) +$135
6. St Louis (W) +$150
7. Jacksonville (W) +$205 We were 3W-2L on Sunday

Some of the above teams ended up winning their games and others ended up losing.
We only care about the first half which involves a completely different set of handicapping guidelines.



Combined for the seven plays we won 3 plays- lost 4 plays and $100 bettors were up $90. That is the beauty of money line betting. We will have great streaks, average performances and losing streaks , however, our goal of averaging at least plus 10 units(a unit is the amount you bet) per month is very achievable if you stick with all of the plays.

I am doing a December special and will gladly send you a free e-book if you so request.

Regards,

George K.
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Professional Sports Betting

The definition of a professional sports bettor is someone that bets on sports either part time or full time to MAKE money.

Most casual bettors do not have the discipline to make money consistently. They bet on their favorite teams, double up when they are losing, and look at sports betting as a recreational activity. As long as they do not mortgage the house they know they will win some and lose some. Many bettors really don’t seem to care very much about earning a long term profit.

They like to have some action on games as a form of recreation or excitement, not as an investment decision. Many of these types of bettors are far more interested in TV games and they tend to bet more on bigger games, like the Super Bowl or the NCAA Tournament.

Money management, record keeping and other important concepts just do not enter their minds. They play parlays, teasers and other exotic bets that offer huge paybacks, but which also are statistically big losers. If you are in this category. the sports books love you because you are making them a lot of money.

Professional bettors make the vast majority of their bets on straight money line bets either for the first half or the whole game. My focus on first half money line bets is extrememly profitable

Professionals bettors are in it for the long haul. They recognize that big winning streaks and some losing streaks are inevitable. Think about it, can anyone really predict a game will be won because of a last second field goal or a three point shot from half court. Of course not.

That is why we are in the probability business and not the prediction business.

My point is that if you stick with me and make all of the plays I recommend, you will make money. What is amazing, is that when I get on a hot streak, clients can't wait until the next day to bet. If I hit a dry run, many of them go into hiding until the next winning streak.

That is not smart. You have to manage your money by flat betting and recognize that our method has a built in advantage that will always lead to winnings seasons.

Sports Betting is a long term investment

Good Day,

It has been a while since I have been updating my blog posts. I am happy to say that after the car accident I am back at full speed.

1. Sports betting is a lifelong endeavor. You will have winning days and you will have losing days. It still amazes me how much praise I get after a winning streak and how much despair I hear after a losing streak. Gamblers have very short term memories.

2. Sports bettors who take a short-term approach get stuck in a vicious cycle. They build their bankroll, add to it with a hot streak and then eventually watch it go up in smoke when they hit the inevitable skids. The most unfortunate of them do it over and over and over again. Forget GREED. It is a losing proposition. I have had clients blow up their accounts after a good run, only to put an insane amount of money on a bet that either doubles their money or they end up losing everything. Don't do that. Sports betting is intoxicating and poor money management causes many bettors to make stupid decisions. Sports betting done properly is not a get rich scheme. You will make money, but you have to understand we are INVESTING, not gambling

3. The key is to look at the long term big picture. Taking the long term view is not only logical, but it’s also profitable. As an example, have you noticed with every stock pick that you have ever made that 90% of the time the stock price drops before it rises. Surely, there are exceptions to the rule but not many.

4. Think back to the last time you suffer a drop in your bankroll. Did it happen quickly, within a week or even a couple of days? Did it happen shortly after you went on a hot streak? Do you remember suffering a tough beat and then trying to play catch-up by betting a few additional games that you originally didn’t intend to play? It happens. The time after you suffer a bad beat or go through an extended losing streak is extremely dangerous, especially if you’re not taking a long-term approach.

5. Looking over the last three months, we has a great September +16 units and a solid October, being up + 7 units. November has been a tough month as we are slightly down in our account. One good day, and we are back in positive territory One small twist can make the difference. Last night, we has two plays. We won Miami, and we lost Orland by one point. HEY, that is the reality of what we do.

I still expect November to be a winning month as we have experienced some really close losses ( as well as some blowouts, so I just suggest you watch your money management and follow the rules that I have set.

The most successful bettors do the following.

1. Play all of my bets
2. Place 4% on your bankroll on each bet.
3. Increase your bet size to 4% if your bankroll increases.
4. Do not get hung up on daily fluctuations. Our goal is to make +10 units average
per month - +120 units per year. A unit is the amount you usually bet.
5. Set it and forget it. The approach we use WORKS! Just keep making\
the plays and you will make money.

Do not bet based on ATS results

I could show you hundreds of examples of handicappers that advise making plays based on ATS (Against the Spread)record.

With our style of betting we hardly ever pay attention to ATS because we are betting first half moneyline line underdogs for a team to be leading at half while winning more money back than we wagered. That is why our goal is 50% winners and 10 units of profit per month. A unit is what you normally risk on each of your bets.

ATS means how a team does against the pointspread. We never bet on pointspreads, because we are in the business of making money.

Here are three ridiculous examples of recommended bets based on ATS records. We will use college football as an example.

1. California is 2-7 ATS past nine games vs. Washington State.
2. Southern Cal is 7-3 ATS past ten vs Arizona St.
3. Florida Atlantic is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games in November.

What happened ATS 3 or 4 years ago between teams means almost nothing when you are looking to make a wager today. Coaches and players change very frequently and many teams that were great four years ago are terrible this year and vica versa.

You betting should be base on a combination of fundamental, technical and situational conditions. If you want to make money over the long term stick to money line underdogs. All professional handicappers will have ups and downs, but the approach we use WORKS as long as you are using good money management and bet the same amount on every play.

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com.

Call if you have any questions about our advisory service or sports betting approach.

NBA-Taking Candy from a Baby?

Thanks to subscriber MN for inspiring this blog. The NBA will be starting very soon so we will begin to have more daily plays.

January 1st through March 31st of 2010 when I was focusing on basketball I went
86W-76L (53.08%) with an average take back of +138. $100 bettors were up $4,268 or 42.68 units.

The NBA presents many golden opportunities for the way we bet. They play a long grueling season of 82 games with a lot of travel and injuries involved. There will be many situational plays for us to take advantage of.

Many people feel that NBA games do not really kick into high gear until the 4th quarter, and that is true in a lot of games. In our method we don't care about the
4th quarter, only the first half.

In many cases, inferior teams are able to keep pace for at least the first half, so this is great for us in being able to sneak in some solid wins.

We will be looking to go against many over valued team. As an example, the Miami Heat are the most hyped team in history. If they play to their potential, they will win a lot of games.

The lines will almost always be skewed in their favor as many people will blindly bet on them. However, Lebron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are all 4th quarter closers. That's not to say that Wade or one of the other superstars won't put up 30 points in the first half.

But these guys are human and have to pace themselves. Also, the chances of one of them having a bad game is always prevalent.

Winning NBA 1st half bets is not like taking candy from a baby, but trust me, we will make a lot of money.

The Special for non-subscribers to get all baseball, football and basketball plays through December 31st for only $99.00 will end this Sunday October 24th. I accept checks, money orders or PayPal. Don't forget we still have a lot of pro and college football remaining through the rest of October.
Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

What I noticed at Glory Days yesterday

Glory Days Grill is one of the best sports bars in the metropolitan Washington DC. area. They have several locations and multiple TV screens.

Just listening and talking with several patrons , I was amazed at what I was hearing. People were all over the place with their bets and parlay cards. It was not uncommon to see many people going over on some games, unders on others, taking favorites and taking dogs.

What I walked away with was a true appreciation of what I have learned over the years. The key to making money consistently is specialization. I am very disciplined and focused, and when I evaluate a game I am evaluating the first half or first five innings exclusively. Even if I love a favorite, I won't bet it.

If you find something that works, stick to it. You don't have to bet every game on the board. Remember, our goal is to make money. Stick to the plays I release and you will make money. Do not be selective....bet them all.

A final point is to stick to your money management. When we go on a great run as we have lately, it is not uncommon for bettors to up their bet size because they are doing great.

Do not make that mistake. We will have some tough days ahead, because that is the nature of the business. Stay disciplined and you will be alright. Treat your sports betting as a business

Year to Date Record through September 30th

The official won-loss record for this year through September 30th is 332W-343L.
That is a winning percentage of 49.18%. Our goal is to win 50% of the games we play.
Our average take back on winners was +136. So $100 bettors for example win an average of $136 on successful bets, and lose $100 on losing bets. $100 bettors are up $10,852 for the year.

I am one of the very few handicappers that specializes in betting money line underdogs for the 1st five innings of baseball games and the 1st half of football and basketball games. We do not bet pointspreads which you will find many of the top handicappers are moving away from because of the commission/vigorish.

I bet MLB, NFL, NCAAF,NBA and NCAAB. Plays are release once a day typically in the morning. I do not use a system. Rather, I combine fundamental, technical and situational analysis.

If you would like to try my service, which includes unlimited phone and e-mail support, I charge $50.00 per month and guide you every step of the way. I am doing a $99.00 special that will give you all plays through December 31, 2010. You can pay by check/money order or PayPal whichever option you choose.:

My address is: George Kallajxhi
13411 Harrison Ave.
Ft. Washington Md. 20744

703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

PayPal email to send money is the same : gak555@yahoo.com

By the way, I got to know all of the big Vegas players and set my foundation and approach by working with Bob McCune, Larry Grossman, Lem Banker and others. The world of sportsbetting has changed dramatically from the late 1990's

The way I bet is the state of art way of making money betting on sports.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805

Paralysis by Analysis

Yesterday I was in the car most of the day heading to Elkins, West Virginia for a visit with friends. I had the sports talk show on the radio and it nearly drove me crazy. They had a number of pundits giving their predictions on Sunday Night's Football game.

I think every small detail and matchup was evaluated. They even interviewed two of the player's mothers. I know some people can't get enough of this stuff, but when you are purely in the business to make money, much of it is not significant.

We had the Chicago Bears +150 for the first half. That simply means if the Bears were leading at the half $100 bettors would have won $150 (plus they would get their $100 back). The Giants were leading 3-0 at the half, so that was our only loss. $100 bettors lost $100.

If I polled 1000 people for an estimate half time score, I bet no one would have predicted the 3-0 score. I certainly would not have.

My point is as I have mentioned several times, is we do not predict scores. We simply try to identify underdogs on the money line that have a good chance of being ahead at the half. The second half has no bearing on what we do. Over time, we make a lot of money wagering this way.

Don't complicate things with a buffet of statistical comparisons. That only confuses people.

Use the K.I.S.S. concept ( keep it simple stupid.

People ask me all the time if I can teach them my system. Well, I can teach some basics, but after doing this for 17 years you definitely develop a sixth sense to figure what to do. That is the kind of thing I can't teach and the reason I offer my advisory service.

Most people do not have the inclination or desire to properly evaluate every game. I do. The moral is simple. Do not get caught up in the incredible myriad of available statistics and predictions. If you follow every play I recommend you will have ups and downs but I guarantee you will make money.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Make Sure You Get Your Sportsbook Bonus

Almost all sportsbooks offer some type of sign up bonus or a bonus when you add additional money to your account. Many of them however, do not advertise their offer. Sometimes you have to ask them "What is the Bonus you are offering to new accounts or to customers that add money to their account".

Don't leave free money on the table. Contact me if you want to know where to find the best sportsbook bonuses.

George
gak555@yahoo.com
703-217-0805

Why We Only Bet Money Line Underdogs

If you study any casino game you will find that the house always has a built in probability advantage. They make the most money from Roulette players and the least from Black Jack players.

In point spread sports betting whether you bet the favorite or the underdog, you will pay an average of $110 to win $100. If you win you get $100. But, if you lose you are out $110. Just to break even you need to win 52.38% of your bets. To make any real money you need to win at least 56% or higher against the point spread. Trust me, that is not easy.

When betting the money line underdog in sports, you get the most bang for your buck.By example, let's say that the Yankees are favored by -170 over Kansas City and the take back on Kansas City is +155. That means if if you like the Yankees you would bet $170 to win $100. On the other hand if you bet Kansas City you would bet $100 to win $155. If the Yankees lose you are out $170. If they win you only win $100. Conversely if you bet KC and lose you are out $100. But if you win you are up $155.

The whole premise of how we win is to find underdogs that based on our analysis have a 50% chance of being ahead after the first half or first 5 innings of the games. If you are not aware, you can easily bet the first half of a game at most reputable sports books. In another blog I will explain why we bet the first half/1st five innings instead of the whole game. What we do is unique and very profitable. Contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Which Sportsbook to Use ?

There are an amazing number of sportsbooks out there that will take your bets. If you are on any type of sports betting mailing list, like I am, your mailbox will be full of very slick advertising pieces from sportsbooks that offer you a plethora of bonuses and special offers.

Oftentimes, when I ask a client or potential client who they bet with, it is a book that I have never heard of. Nothing wrong with that as long as you get paid. The important thing if you bet with me is having a sportsbook that does first half money lines and first five inning moneylines.

I know that having multiple sportsbooks to compare prices is a good idea, but I find that most people stick to one or two sportsbooks. I normally steer people to 5Dimes to start and if they want to add a book to compare prices, BetJamaica. I have no affiliation with these books, but I know they are solid and most importantly, they pay. I have had accounts with them for years.

If you want to see how your sportsbook rates go to www.sportsbookreview.com This site rates a very large number of sportbooks

We Always Lose the Popularity Contests

There are a number of websites that display which teams are being chosen to win by recreational bettors. By and large, these stats come from amateur contest websites such as Wagerline.com. The vast majority of everyday bettors go with the favorites. That is something we never do as we bet money line underdogs.

We are professional bettors that bet to make money. We often go against the grain and realize that anything can happen in a sporting event. Most people that come to me have been losing money either due to bad pick selection(mainly favorites) or poor money management.

I have tunnel vision when it comes to my official bets. Sometimes I have the same can't lose reaction to a favorite and feel like backing up the Brinks truck to bet large.

Betting on favorites can be fun, but I always resist the temptation. People that read this blog and have made good money betting on favorites will scoff at this and move on.

My take is that if you just bet favorites, it is just a matter of time before you lose. The legenday gurus in this business like Bob McCune, Lem Banker and David Sirvansky all focus or fucused on the 'dogs. That is where the real long term money can be found.

The Best Sports Books

sportsbookreview.com

This is an outstanding website that has been rating sports books since 1999. I am amazed how many thriving sports books are out there. People just love to wager.

I recommend you stick to the top rated sports books. I always start my new clients with 5Dimes.com because I know their operation very well and have received countless payouts from them. BetJamaica.com is another favorite of mine and if you want to open a second account to compare prices, this one is a good choice. They are very solid and they are owned by the same group that owns The Greek.com which is also highly rated.

You can open an account with just about any sports book without depositing any money. If you are going to be working with me and open an account at 5Dimes.com under source make sure you put my name: George Kallajxhi. They know me down there and I send them a lot of new customers. I'll make sure you get you 20% initial deposit bonus.......something they normally do not advertise.

The Beauty of Money Line Underdogs

Below is part of the write up I sent to my clients this morning. We have three plays today. If Washington is leading after five innings $100 bettors will have cleared $170 above the $100 they bet. Their payback would read (+270 because they get the original risk amount back plus the additional $170). I hope this blog doesn't blow up in my face with an Atlanta rally before the 5th inning is over. Right now we are in the top of the 5th inning and Washington is leading 4-1. I purposely wrote this blog before the end of the 5th inning because if Atlanta does rally to take the lead in the bottom of the 5th it will show you that in sports anything can happen.

If we win, we have two more games left today. The worse thing that could happen is that we lose them both. If that occurs , $100 bettors are only out $30 for the day. If the last two games split we make money. If we win all three games, that is a huge day because of the big take backs we have on our underdog plays.

If you are not aboard yet, my monthly service fee is a very reasonable $50.00
Join now through PayPal and get the rest of September free and all of October. This will include baseball and football. Please mention this blog as your source of the promotion.

_________________________________________________________________________________

1. Washington Nationals vs Atlanta - John Lannan has pitched very well for the Nats lately. In his last 21 innings he has only given up 5 runs. Mike Minor of Atlanta is good, however in his last four starts he has been very hitable given up more hits than innings pitched. Big take back today at around +170 as we try to sneak one in.

How did I know the Padres would Win ?

For the second straight day I was asked how I knew a team would win. Yesterday it was the KC Chiefs, which was an unpopular pick among my clients. Tonight it was the San Diego Padres.

If you are new to all this we only bet the first 5 innings of baseball games or the first half of football and basketball games. The San Diego Padres-Colorado Rockies game is still going on as I type this. But, San Diego was ahead after 5 innings 4-3. End of bet. That's all we care about. We were leading after five innings. $100 bettors with a take back of +150 made $150 of pure profit.


Getting back to the question of how I knew the Padres would win tonight. The answer is "I DIDN'T." No one knows who will win a contest. I am a professional handicapper and I know what is reasonable and what is not. When I see touts running their ads, everyone of them seems to have gone 16-4 their last 20 games. That is a bunch of bull. Could it happen. Sure. I once went 15-0 betting money line underdogs. That is incredible, but not common. Stay away from these guys that tell you they are doing that every week. I think most of them are great marketers and probably not very good handicappers.

I will say it again, I am in the probabilty business, not the prediction business. If you are a client, make all of the plays, as we will have winning and losing streaks. In the end we can't help but be profitable based on the way we bet.

Why Betting on Football will be Profitable

As many of you know, we will be betting on first half money line underdogs in College Football and the NFL. I want to use tonight's opening NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints as an example of how profitable football betting will be for us.

The point spread for the first half of tonight's game was Minnesota (+3 -110). So if you wanted to win $100 you would have bet $110. You pay a price for that
3 point buffer, and most people do in fact bet the point spread.

However, the money line for the Vikings was +160 for the first half. Points do not matter when betting the money line. If you would have bet $100 on Minnesota, you would have won $160. THAT IS PROFOUND, and the secret to our success.

If we average +150 on our first half money line bets, we would only need to be leading at the half 40% of the time to break even. Everything above 40% is pure profit.

We are not in the prediction business, we are in the probability business.
Our goal is to find favorable spots where we feel that we have a 50% chance of being ahead at the half.

Regardless of what you may think or read, no one can predict exactly what will happen in a sporting event. Tonight, it looked like New Orleans was going to coast to a 7-3 halftime lead. Instead, Minnesota scored a touchdown in the last two minutes(they missed the extra point) and ended up with a 9-7 lead. So Minnesota bettors won their first half bet.

If you held a gun to my head and asked me what the score would be at halftime, I would have said New Orleans 14 - Minnesota 3. But like I said I do not predict scores. I look for favorable probabilities.

We will have tough loses and fortunate wins. That is part of what we do. Take it in stride, use proper money management and you will be OK.

I look forward to a very profitabe football season.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

An example of the importance of money management

Today I released two 5 inning baseball underdog plays (see analyses below). We went 1W-1L, so $100 bettors were up $25 for the day. I'll take a plus money day anytime. We won the Houston game and lost the Chicago White Sox game.


The point I want to make is that our pitcher for the Chicago White Sox, Freddy Garcia, left the game after two innings due to a sore back. This is the kind of thing that can make the best and most thorough analysis go right out the window.

The lesson to be learned is always flat bet the same amount of money on EVERY game regardless of how strongly you feel about a play. Forget5 Star bets, game of the week and all that nonsense because anything can happen.

When you flat bet a specific amount on each play you can weather an unfortunate occurance or a losing streak. Think of this as long term sports investing rather than betting.



Good Morning,
Today we have two plays.

1. Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs - Here we have two teams that are fighting for respect. Both of them have been playing fairly well lately. What we really like is the pitching match up. Our guy, Nelson Figueroa has been excellent. He is a part time reliever/part time starter. In sixty innings of work this year he has only given up 21 runs. Carlos Silva of the Cubs had a great start this season, but has not pitched since August 1st He was sidelined due to minor heart surgery. In his last seven innings, he has given up 14 runs. The take back will be +125 or so.

2. Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers - Both pitchers have been consistent recently. What is really attractive about this game is the take back that will come in at around +145 to +150. The White Sox have won 7 games in a row and are only 3 1/2 games out of first place. They have momentum and incentive. Detroit on the other hand has lost two in a row and they are out of contention. This line is simply out of wack.


All Baseball Plays - 1st 5 inning money lines
All Football Plays - 1st half money lines

Tally based on risking $100 per play
Month to Date Results - 4W-3L +$281

Some Insights into Football Betting

First of all, it was nice to start September with two strong MLB days. I know when it comes to betting, that football rules. However, there will still be plenty of great sport investing opportunities left in baseball, so I urge you to keep making those baseball wagers.

We will shortly begin having plays in NCAAF and NFL. Since so many games are clustered on the weekends it is very important to watch your money management carefully and never bet more than 4% on any one game.

The bets we make will all be first half money line bets on the underdogs. Our goal is to be leading at least 50% of the games at halftime.

Unlike baseball, where you have to wait until the day of the game to wager, you will usually see the first half football lines posted earlier in the week. There is a lot of debate about whether you will get a better line if you bet early in the week or wait until the last minute. The general wisdom is to bet favorites early in the week and wait until game day to bet underdogs. Over time it becomes a wash, so don't get hung up on that.

Some specific things to focus on when you are betting on football:
( I have much more that I will share in future blogs)

1. I know just about everyone will want to bet on televised games or on their favorite teams. Let's face it, it's fun. I would simply recommend you bet 1/2 or less of your normal amount that you would use for your regular bets.

2. Some of the best values out there will be on obscure teams that do not get much media attention. These can be gems. Remember our goal is to make money through our sports investing.

3. Home field advantage in college football can be justified for a lot of teams. However, in many cases a team playing at home doesn't really have a strong advantage. For example, there is a huge difference between a team like Michigan playing in front of 102,000 home team fans, and a Towson University my alma mater) playing in front of 20,000 home fans. The lines makers typically award 3 points to most home teams as a built in advantage regardless of who they are. We will be looking closely at road underdogs that have a better team but are underdogs in large part because they are playing away.

_____________________________________________________________________________

The fee for my service is $50.00 a month regardless of how many plays I release. From now through the end on October the nuber of plays tend to spike up. If you like to figure out how much you are paying per pick, it will probably come out to less than 50 cents per game. Contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

If you are serious about making money on sports betting

Good Evening,

I had a number of people that have decided to give my service a try. To be exact, there were 7 new clients that signed up via PayPal while I was on vacation.

Today was the first day I released plays for September. The good news is that we went 2W-1L today. $100 bettors were up about $180.

For those of you that have not started yet, below is the actually e-mail I sent out this morning to my clients. Hopefully, it will give you a good idea of the type of analysis I provide. I try to keep it short and simple as I know my clients only have one goal in mind...MAKING MONEY.

What confuses many people is the concept of betting money line underdogs for the first five innings of a baseball game or the first half of a football or basketball game. 90% of sports bettors are used to betting the pointspread. If you look at one of my earlier blogs, I explain very clearly why betting the point spread is a losing proposition. .

My clients are always welcome to contact me by phone or e-mail as I love talking about sports betting.

In a nutshell, when we bet the money line underdog for the first five innings or the first half, we always win more money than we risk. That allows towin only 45% or 50% of our bets and make good money.

I am one of the very few people that bet this way. All I care about is putting myself in a favorable situation to make money.

I will be putting this exact e-mail as my latest blog to hopefully give newcomers more information.

Look for an exciting day tomorrow. I have not decided yet, but we may have our first college football play. Stay tuned.

___________________________________________________________________-


Good Morning,

Expect a lot of football action this month. Also September will be a fascinating month in baseball as teams jockey for position to pull out a division title or wildcard spot. Other teams are bringing up a bunch of minor league players to evaluate and still other teams will be throwing in the psychological towel early.

Our job is to capitalize on the opportunities that present themselves.

Today we have three plays:

1. Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis - We have two teams that are going in opposite dirrections. Cincinnati is 7-3 and St. Louis is 2-8 over the last ten games. In addition, the Reds bats are hot. They have scored 5 or more runs in four of their last five games. St. Louis does have a pitching advantage as Chris Carpenter is very solid. However, he has shown signs of a tired arm in his last two starts. What makes this a particularly appealing play is the whopping +160 or so takeback we will be getting.

2. Colorado Rockies vs San Diego - every year a top team or two crumbles in September. San Diego sure looks like a candidate for the choke of the year award. Although they are still sitting on top of their division, they have lost nine games in a row.
Today's matchups feature two excellent pitchers. We will take our chances with a surging Colorado team vs a San Diego team that is in turmoil. We will have a decent decent takeback of about +120

3. Chicago White Sox vs Boston - Chicago is on a roll having won five games in a row. They are only 3 1/2 games out of first place. Boston, on the other hand is one of those teams that looks about ready to throw in the towel. They are 10 games out looking up at the formidable Yankees and Rays. The pitching matchup is a virtual wash. What we like is the momemtum and the +125 approximate takeback.

All baseball games are first 5 Inning money lines plays
All football games are first half money line plays

Al Roker and Sports Betting

My vacation to the Outer Banks,NC was cut short due to a mandatory evacuation. We were told to leave late Thursday. The big news was the approach of Hurricane Earl. The Weather Channel even sent Al Roker down to give continual updates.

The forecast vacillated from Earl being a major category four hurricane to it missing the Outer Banks completely and heading north. The end result was that “Hurricane Earl” just missed the Outer Banks and caused strong winds and rain. No real harm done.

All of the expert meteorologists were monitoring the storm and giving their opinions as to the ultimate path of Hurricane Earl. Truth be told, no one knew exactly what would happen.

How does this relate to sports betting? Well, when we bet on a sporting event nothing can be guaranteed. So many things can happen to alter our analysis. For example, did our quarterback get injured on the second play of the game? Is there a torrential rain that virtually prevents the passing game from being effective? Did our team’s plane have a three hour delay causing our players to change their normal routine?

The point is, when we bet on money line underdogs ONLY we have a cushion for the unexpected. We always win more on our bets than we initially risk. We do not need to win 55% or 60% of our bets to be profitable. A 50% winning percentage makes us a lot of money. A 45% winning percentage would put us in break even territory.

When I release plays, just like Hurricane Earl, I cannot guarantee the end results. However, I have a buffer thaat allows me to be wrong and still make money. That is the beauty of money line betting.

The way I bet is going to make money. I am not in the prediction business, I am in the probability business. Over time we will be successful and make a ton of money.

September is a great month because we have three sports that overlap ( MLB-NFL and NCAAF). Traditionally I do not bet the first week of college football.

There were 31 games today in college football that had first half money lines. I will learn more from the results of those games than I would from reading the 12 college football publications that come out before the season starts. Next week we will have a number of college football plays.

Don’t forget that there is still a lot of money to be made in these final weeks of baseball. You might be surprised at some of my baseball recommendations that I will be sending out. Every team has a COMPLETELY different outlook in September. After 17 years of sports betting, I know exactly what to look for. I expect September to be a very profitable month. For my current subscribers, make sure you make all of the plays and stick to your money management. September will be an excellent money maker.

The Myth of Home Field Advantage in College Football

Home-field advantage is overrated, especially in college football.
There is no denying that many teams perform better at home. The issue is that the lines makers know that bettors will lean towards the home team if they can't quite decide which team to bet. Consequently, they tend to inflate the line in college football by an average of 3 points to the home team.

Fortunately for us first half money line bettors, one size does not fit all. Sure when you have a packed stadium week in and week out like Michigan or Florida, the home team probably warrants an advantage.

Well how about those teams that do not fill their home stands every week. The lines makers are giving them the same average home advantage as the full house teams when they really do not deserve it.

This is where we can capitalize on first half money line plays. Even when betting on a road dog in a capacity filled stadium, it has been proven that the crowd does not normally have a major influence until the 4th quarter.


One of several things I look at when playing college football, is the average attendance vs the stadium capacity. This will tell me a lot about fan support.
When you start getting my college football plays you will normally see an number of obscure underdogs playing on the road for the reasons I mentioned above. All I want to do, is to be leading a game at halftime.

If you want to pick a winner for a high profile televised game I can help you with that. On the other hand if your main motivation is making money then follow my plays on the Appalacian States and Towson Universities of the world.

Here is why you will make money playing 1st half money line football plays

First of all, I want to give credit to David Payne who wrote the following article. I thought is was very timely to explain why betting the first half of football games on the moneyline will make you money. Despite all of the
in-depth pre game analyses that go into football games on TV and the radio, the reality is that anything can happen. This is an example of what can happen in a football game that can make you a winner or a loser. If you bet underdogs on the money line you will make money! The following example is a point spread loss. We only play money line underdogs in football for the first half.

__________________________________________________

David Payne writes:

It’s good to see football giving bettors an early kick in the gonads. It wakes us up and prepares for what promises to be a season full of bad beats. Be mindful of your composure this season. Don’t waste time beating yourself up over a bad pick; instead, use that time to focus on your next play. Keep your cool.

San Francisco, a 3.5-point favorite, led 13-3 late in the fourth quarter. If you were invested in the Vikings, you were miserable. Brett Favre ran just four plays, and the offense had done absolutely nothing.

Webb, the rookie quarterback for Minnesota , started the fourth quarter. But Minnesota fans weren’t exactly oozing confidence about a spread-covering drive.Then, like a surprise Jagerbomb, Webb changed everything. Out of the shotgun, he took off up the middle and scored on a stunning 48-yard scramble. The extra point made it 13-10 and simultaneously pissed off every San Francisco bettor that had San Francisco -3.5 points. Minnesota bettors suddenly had a winner with nine seconds to play.


But, wait, Mr. Webb was not through.

After recovering an onside kick, the 49ers unsuccessfully tried to run out the clock. They ended up punting with nine seconds to play.

The Vikings took over at their own eight. Instead of just running out the clock and not risking a silly injury on the last play of a meaningless preseason game, Webb took the snap out of the shotgun. He scrambled around, all the way back into his own end zone and was sacked for a safety. Nothing hurts more than the old dagger safety.

Final score: 49ers 15, Vikings 10. Ouch. In essence, Viking bettors that had +3.5 were celebrating victory until it was taken out of their hands in the last few seconds.

________________________________________________________________________

Moral of the story....play 1st half money line underdogs because you never know what can happen. If you win only 50% of your bets you will be profitable.

The Beauty of 1st Half Football Money Line Betting

The vast majority of football bettors, whether they bet the NFL or NCAA, use the point spread for their bets. A typical example might be a bet on the Dallas Cowboys at home against the Green Bay Packers. If the line is Dallas -6 (-110) they can take either Dallas -6 points or Green Bay +6 points. Regardless of which team they take they immediately put themselves in the hole. The reason is the 10% vigorish (-110) or commission that bettors have to pay. They have to win almost 53% (actually 52.38%) of their bets just to break even. That may sound easy, but it's not.

My interest in betting on sports is strickly to make money. I don't want the book makers to have an advantage. The solution is to bet on money line underdogs and forget about point spread betting altogether.

Taking it one step further, there is an incredible amount of value in betting the underdog for the first half of a football game on the moneyline. This is what I specialize in when I make my plays.

The handicapping criteria I use is different because all I am looking to do is to have my team ahead at the half. I'm not worried about smaller offensive lines or running backs getting tired in the second half or a myriad of other things that happen late in a game.

I'm just trying to sneak in a first half lead. It is statistically significant that underdogs tend to lose games towards the last part of a game. My goal is to take advantage and try to bet on underdog teams that have at least a 50% chance of being ahead at the half.

If we use the Dallas - Green Bay example, the first half point spread line might be Dallas -3 (-110) or Green Bay +3 (-110). However, on the money line, Green Bay might be +150. That simply means that if Green Bay is leading the game at the half $100 bettors will have won $150. If they lose they will only lose $100. Points are taken out of the equation. Green Bay just has to be leading.

Now, think about this. One field goal can make the difference between losing $100 on this bet or winning $150.

All of the sudden, you only need to win 40% of your bets to break even. A winning percentage above that is profitable. As a matter of fact, if you are getting +150 on your first half bets, and are leading 50% of your games at half time, a $100 bettor would be ahead $2,500 over a span of just 100 games.

Should You Bet On Preseason Football ?

As most of you know, I focus on money line underdogs for the first five innings of a baseball game, or the first half of a basketball or football game.

Since football is the most popular sport to bet on, I am getting a lot of questions about preseason NFL football betting. As a rule, I do not bet on preseason football because the sports books do not typically offer money lines for these games. They usually just put up point spreads. The point spreads are usually very tight with most of them falling between -1 and -3 points regardless of who is playing. Unfortunately there is very little correlation between preseason and the regular season.

If I do bet on preseason, I do it as a small part of my bankroll mainly for fun, and never put out official plays until the regular season starts.

One thing you might want to look at if you want action is betting on the new coaches. Often they want to get off to a good start right away to set a fresh new environment of winning.


This year there are only three new coaches. Mike Shanahan - Redskins, Pete Carroll -Seahawks and Chan Gailey - Bills.

Another thing is to look at is the idea of going against teams that had a great season last year and have a carryover of stability. These teams are usually not concerned about winning until the regular season.

Have fun if you bet the preseason, but wait until the regular season to make serious money.

Speaking of making money, we are off to a 6W-5L start on our baseball underdogs. $100 bettors are up $370 through today as we cashed our one early bet on the Twins (first five innings +$140). August is a great month to bet on baseball

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Winning Percentage vs Units Won

I want to give credit to Allen Moody for some of the content in this post.


If somebody were to ask you if you would rather be a 60-percent handicapper or a
55-percent handicapper, which would you choose? The obvious answer is that it's better to be a 60-percent handicapper, but that isn't necessarily true.

Since we only bet on money line underdogs, the only statistic that sports bettors should be concerned with is units won.

Units won is the amount of profit, or loss, that a sports investor has over time. We do not worry nearly as much about winning percentage.

With baseball season in full force, many sports bettors are seeing ads from different sports services claiming winning percentages of 65-percent for baseball, and that's entirely possibly, but what the services aren't saying is that the majority of their selections were favorites of -200 or more, turning that 65-percent handicapping into a losing proposition.

Making it more difficult for sports bettors is that some sports services will claim to have won 200 units in a particular sport, but don't mention that they release 10- or 20-unit plays, along with several 100-unit "locks" at the end of the year if things aren't going so well and they need something to base next year's advertising on.

Units won is really the only thing you should be concerned with, as that ultimately is going to translate into the bottom line. When you only bet money line underdogs, you can win only 50% of the time and make a lot of money.

Sports Investing vs Gambling

Sports investing is a very disciplined method of wagering on sporting events. The principles of sports investing teach you to manage your funds to maximize your profit while minimizing your risk.

Gambling on the other hand typically involves spur of the moment betting decisions that are often based on hunches, feelings or unrealistic expectations.

You have to treat this arena as a business by first determining a comfortable bankroll amount. This money must be funds that will not affect your living situation. Sports investing losses should never interfere with bills you have to pay or any other financial obligations.

A good sports investor will do his homework and adhere to a stict criteria and a set of defined parameters. He always bets the same unit on each game and focuses on long term success.

Sports investors are methodical. Gamblers tend to lose control and become reckless.

Call or email me if you have any sports betting questions.

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Why Sports Books Hate Baseball

Part of the following was taken from an article written by Aaron Schudiner who writes for Covers.com

"It’s the slowest part of the sports betting calendar. Baseball is the only game in town and it doesn’t take a backseat until football season arrives in September. "

You’d think bookies would be thanking their stars that America’s pastime was keeping the action alive during the dull summer months. But that’s not necessarily the case.

“It’s by far my least favorite sport to book,” says Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Belmont.com. “Other than the three-day All-Star Break, we’re talking about a sport that is played every single day for six months. It can take a toll on any bookmaker.”

It's not just the length of the campaign that turns oddsmakers off to Major League Baseball. Public bettors, who show up in droves during the football season, are nowhere to be found in July and August. So the lines makers end up working harder for a sport that will bring in less gambling revenues.

“The only true money that comes in on baseball is sharp money,” Jay Kornegay, Executive Director of Race and Sportsbook at the Las Vegas Hilton, told ESPN’s Chad Millman.

In spite of its long season, baseball is the sport that is the least bet of the big three.
_______________________________________________________________________

The above article represents the very reason why betting on baseball makes sense. This is particularly true when you bet the first five innings of a game on the money line. Our goal is very simple - TO MAKE MONEY.

It is easy to find weak spots when you have so many games to pick from. We simply look the the right situations where our team has a very good chance to be ahead after 5 innings. If you are a little confused as to why we play just the first 5 innings of a baseball game on the money line, don't worry. It's my job to make sure clients do the right thing.

Handi-Scammers vs Handi-Cappers

P.T Barnum once said “there is a sucker born every minute.” That is particularly true if you relate it to betting. Many people just do not have the time to make their own betting selections so they rely on a handicapping or pick service. There are some good services out there, but be careful as there are also a lot of scam artists.

You can spot them by the outrageous claims they make. They are usually much better marketers than handicappers. All too often folks get suckered into believing the advertising from what I call handi-scammers. People fall for these ads because they are usually motivated by greed and these scam artists play right into their weakness.

Those who claim to be in possession of some exclusive classified information that will absolutely and positively decide the outcome of a game are simply lying. Also, when you see a label given to any one game such as lock of the year, 50 star play, or a sure thing, RUN, don‘t walk away. The people that make these claims plain and simple are not legitimate.

One of their most common tactics is to give out both sides of a game and thus, ensuring 50% of the callers will receive a winner and as a result, those 50% will fork out more money next week.

The following week they’ll do the same and now 25% of the people that they initially contacted have gone 2-0 and are now ready to hand out big bucks. Hopefully, you’ll be one of those people that went 0-1 and won’t be conned into dishing out more money.

A variation of this is the you only pay if you win. Again, they are using the exact same tactic mentioned above by giving out both sides of a game, knowing that half of the people will, in fact, win. If you lose you don’t have to pay them but you still lose money because you lost the bet . If you win and have to give them a percentage of your winnings it raises the percentage of wins you need just to break even.

Here is another almost comical ploy that these scammers use. If you happen to get on their mailing list you may receive a full schedule for the NFL season. Well if you flip through the schedule you will see that they often will already have highlighted locks or specific blowout games for
two or three months in advance. Are they so clairvoyant to know which game will be the lock of the week two or three months down the road ? I don’t think so.

There are legitimate handicappers out there that you can use if you do not want to go through the work of handicapping your own games. First of all , you should never pay more than 1% of your normal betting amount for a play. So if you normally bet $100 per game you should pay no more that $1.00 per pick. That’s in stark contrast to the $10-$50 or more per play that the so called Gurus often charge for their picks.

Also, do not go with someone that has a short time period of success. Anyone can get on a hot streak. In line with this, beware of sports services that spend a lot of money claiming how great they are. These services make a ton of money signing up clients, but it is usually the client that loses because they get caught up in the hype.

You will be much better off going with someone that is consistent, reliable, honest and obviously good. Look for handicappers that charge a reasonable amount and that do not make pie in the sky promises. Ask a handicapper if he has ever had a losing month. If they tell you NO, you can be sure they are not being truthful.


George Kallajxhi
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Difference Between a Trend and a System

I recently read on one of the forums I follow about a great new system that someone came up with. The gentleman’s system was simply to take the NY Yankees every game on the run line (this means they would have to win the game by two runs).

He based his system on the fact that this year the Yankees on the run line through May 14th were 22W-12L on the run line. That is very impressive.

Unfortunately from May 15th through July 4th the Yankees were only
19W-27L on the run line even though they had a winning record during that time.

If you read one of my earlier posts on run line betting you will see that in time, it is not a money maker. The reason is because there are so many one run games in MLB.

A trend is a short term series of events that typically is spread over 100 games or less. Trends are meaningless and often times they are team specific.

A system on the other hand is typically based on 1000 or more games and can never be based on just one team. It needs to be based on the whole league regardless of which sport you are dealing with. Keep that in mind next time someone has a great discovery that is based on a statistically insignificant number of games or on the results of just one team.

Systems can work, trends cannot.

How to Handle Winning and Losing Streaks

It is inevitable that even the best handicappers will have winning and losing streaks. They will also have great months, average months and below average months.
Accept this as reality if you are a sports bettor.

The way to handle the ups and downs of your wagering is to maintain strict discipline with your money management. If you do that and have a solid foundation that leads to making good risk/reward bets then you will be OK .

Don't get too high on the winning streaks or too low on the losing streaks. Always maintain an even keel.

By example, the New York Yankees have the best record in baseball at 47-28. Yet, they have gone through two three game losing streaks and one four game losing streak this season.

Just take things in stride. What counts is not the day to day fluctuations, but rather how you do over the course of a month or year.

Why You Should Bet on Baseball.

When you look at the three main sports that people wager on football gets the heaviest action, followed by basketball and then baseball. The irony is that there are a lot less possible plays in football than there are in baseball. You are talking about 16 games per team in football vs. 162 games per team in baseball .

If you are serious about making money you need to incorporate baseball into you betting strategy. It does not matter if you win a high profile football game like the Dallas Cowboys vs the Indy Colts, or if you win an obscure baseball game between the KC Royals vs the Baltimore Orioles. If you are flat betting you make the same money.

Some people shy away from baseball because most baseball betting is done on the money line rather than the point spread, which is what most people are comfortable with. However, money line betting is easy to understand and much more profitable than point spread betting.

If you have any questions, contact me.

Regards,

George K.
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Instant Gratification

Many people that bet on sports look for instant gratification. The idea of placing a bet online or with a bookie and winning is intoxicating.

Just think, with a phone call or a press of a mouse at your computer you can make a bet. If you have $1,000 dollars and you bet it all on one game that you know can’t lose, you will either double your money or lose everything.

If you lose, you are out of the game. If you win, more than likely you will also be out of the game; although it will take longer. A big win can be dangerous because you get caught up in irrational expectations.

Professional gamblers never try to hit a home run. They look for the day to day singles and doubles. Smart betting is actually mundane and boring. If you are an action freak you will probably blow up your account at some point.

Smart sports investors know that successful betting is a grind, not a quick fix.

Having a proven system and adhering to a strict money management system is the key to being a winner.

I am always asked what can I make if I bet on sports. I will not promise you pie in the sky results. However, if you follow my plays religiously you can expect to triple your money in three to nine months. That is much better than putting your money in the stock market.

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Similarities between Sports Betting and Wall Street

Success in all types of investing or risk taking has a lot to do with controlling emotions. The psychological issues that drive financial investing and sports betting decisions are almost identical.

Here are three things to always be aware of:

GREED – When the greed circuitry of our brain kicks in, we fixate on
how great we will feel when we cash in winning plays or investments.
Conversely, we tend to ignore developments that could cause us to lose.

Many of us have placed what we consider to be sure, can’t lose bets.
Greed creates tunnel vision, which can easily intoxicate us and
minimize any thought of things going the wrong way. This thought
pattern is pervasive among bettors and investors.

You absolutely must understand the possibility that you may lose
your “sure thing” bet and consider all the negatives that may occur.
Always stop and think about what could be wrong. Be humble, not cavalier when
you bet.

Expect the unexpected and forget about sure plays of the month and all that
garbage. Rule number one is to protect what you have.


OVERCONFIDENCE – This normally happens when you are on a hot
streak, and you will be, when everything you touch is gold. There is
this incredible urge that just seems to take over causing you to “up the
anti” and bet more than you should and in some cases a lot more.

Betting properly is actually a day in day out mundane task. Done
properly it will bring you a regular stream of income. When you let
things get out of hand and step outside the betting parameters it will
invariably catch up to you.

REGRET/CHASING – One of the toughest things for sports
bettors or investors to do is to stay calm when they are losing.
The urge to make up for a recent loss is often the most dangerous period of
time for a bettor or investor. The desire to make up for losses
can be over powering. This may be the number one reason so many people become
losers.

They simply cannot control themselves and force themselves to try and make
up for their losses by doubling their bets or chasing a bet to try to make up
for a previous loss. When people get to this point, logic, proper money
management and following a system simply get thrown out the window.

Successful sports bettors know that the key to accumulating wealth is
making good consistent decisions. If you stick to the things you know
work and put your emotions into check mode you will be successful.
Don’t get too high when you are winning and don’t get too low when
you are losing. Just stick to the day to day best practices and you will
be a winner.

If you need a sports betting coach to guide you through the complex world of sports betting, contact me.

Regards,
George K.
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

5Dimes.com vs. BetJamaica.com

Even though there are no plays today, I analyzed the differences in the lines for all of the first 5 inning underdogs listed today between (5Dimes vs BetJamaica)

Credit should be given to MB of Massachusetts for pointing out the excellent lines at BetJaimaica. In many cases,I found the lines were better at BetJamaica.com

I have been starting everyone at 5Dimes.com, and if you only have enough money for one account, then stick to 5Dimes. They are still one of the best books around. If you have enough money to spread to another sportsbook, then open an account at BetJamaica. Please note that they are both rated A+ at www.sportsbookreview.com

These books allow interbook transfers as long as you are sending at least $500.00 and there is no charge.

If you do a straight deposit to BetJamaica, please note that they have different preferences as to the method of deposit than 5 Dimes. So read the deposit instructions carefully. Also pay attention to the bonus they offer for opening a new account. Sometimes you have to ask for it.

Full Disclosure: I am already an affiliate with 5Dimes and I have talked to the folkes at BetJamaica and plan on signing up as one of their affiliates, also . This means I benefit for each person that signs up there through me. Whatever the benefit is, I will take it off of the monthly fee that you send me. We are in this thing together. I will let everyone know what
the end result is.

Please contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Top Ten Ways to Lose Money

Credit for part of the top ten can be credited to JR Miller.

1. Always bet more than you can afford to lose. Gamble with the rent money, or the kid’s college fund, or the grocery money, or the car payment. Risk more than you can afford to lose. This certainly make things more exciting

2. Keep changing the sizes of your bets. Consider doubling up after a losing day in order to get even, or why not double up after a winning day to really have a big day.

3. Always bet according to your hunches. Betting according to your gut feelings is a real nifty short-cut to losing money. If you feel like you're 'due' a winning day, increase the size of your bets. Or if you get a hunch that a particular team is ready to get hot, load up on them and don't let anyone talk you out of it.

4. Anybody will win now and then if they bet propositions. Those stupid bets like betting on who will win the Super Bowl coin toss can be categorized as gambling and not sports investing.

5. Whenever you gamble, be tired, drink up, and flirt. Breaking this rule could be one of the reasons you've been winning in the first place

6. Pay for advice from touts who claim to win at least 70% of their picks. Truth is that winning 70% of your bets over time is impossible. Anyone can have a great week or a great month. But that type of winning percentage cannot be maintained.

7. Never read books or articles by experts, never do research. Always try new systems and ideas while you're playing with real money. Never practice or double-check a system at home before hand, and never read anything by acknowledged experts.

8. Always impress people with the size of your bets. It’s an ego thing like driving a muscle car. The good news is that if you drop $300 or $400 at the Las Vegas sportsbook, the casino will probably comp you the $10.95 buffet.

9. Consider winning or losing as a direct test of your self worth. Do not graciously accept that losing streaks are part of what happens to any successful sports bettor.

10. Bet just high profile games. Nothing wrong with betting a televised game because it is fun to watch, but they are the games that are most analyzed and scrutinized. A relatively obscure $100 bet on Montana vs Idaho State is worth the same payback as a high profile bet playing the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New England Patriots.

Are Online Sportsbook Accounts Safe ?

The answer is yes and no. There are a lot of sportsbooks out there that will gladly take your deposit. The key is finding the ones that can be trusted to send you money when you request a payout. There is an excellent website you might want to check out: www.sportsbookreview.com they review and rate a large number of sportsbooks.

I have never had a problem when requesting money and I try to stick to the best rated sportsbooks. It's a good idea to spread your money and use more than one sports book if you can. Besides reducing your risk. you can shop lines and get the best price for your wager.

One of my clients recently compared the lines for our plays at three different sports books. There was quite a bit of variation in the prices. If you can get +130 instead of +125 on one of our money line plays the difference over time is significant.

When to Change Your Bet Size

Let's say your bankroll is $1,000. This is the amount you have set aside to bet. You decide you are comfortable betting 3% per game ( remember you can use between 2% and 4%). That would make your bet size $30.00.

You can increase your bet size if you are making money. So if you take your account up to $1,500 , 3% of $1,500 will become your new bet amount. That would make your new betting unit(size) $45.00.

On the other hand, let's say your account temorarily drops to $900.00. You do not adjust your betting size downward. You keep it at $30.00. We only adjust our betting size when our account goes up in value. If you drop your bet size because your bankroll has gone down, then you will need a higher percentage of winners just to get back up to breakeven.

Since your bet size is only 2%-4%, you have enough of a buffer zone to make up for any loses without having to reduce your bet size.

Case in Point - Why You Must Flat Bet.

Forty-eight hours ago Ray Allen hit eight 3 pointers to lead the Celtics to victory over the LA Lakers. Last night the same Ray Allen missed eight three pointers and 5 short shots. This
All Star went from one of his best games ever to one of his worse.

Always remember that anything can happen. Betting properly puts you in a good position to make money. However, the short term fluctuations are inevitable. My subscribers have seen us go 0W-3L on any given day. The have also seen 4W-0L. What counts is where you stand at the end of the month.

If you do not flat bet there is a good chance you will get emotional with your betting, use different bet sizes, double your bet after a bad run to make up for losses and so on. Let's not get caught up in these emotional traps.

Flat Betting....The Only Way to Go!

I want to revisit the importance of managing your money properly in order to make money betting on sports. No matter how strongly you feel about a bet, you have to bet the same amount on each bet you make. This is called flat betting. Forget the following notions:

1. This is a 5 star play!
2. Play of the month!
3. Can't miss!
4. Unload on this one, and so on.

If you are a beginner, shut out all the hype and bet the same amount on every game.. Always remember Murphy's Law: What can go wrong will go wrong.

If you are an experienced bettor but are losing money I would bet that you do not have a solid, unwavering money management system in place that you stick to no matter what.

I spent the last few days studying my recommended bet amounts. In class I have been telling folkes to bet 2% of their total bankroll. Your bankroll is the money you have set aside for betting. It's not your monthly rent, food or child support obligations.

One adjustment I have made and this is particularly important for my current subscribers, is that you can bet between 2%-4% of your bankroll and still keep your money safe. So by example if your allocated bankroll is $1000, 2% would be $20 and 4% would be $40 per bet.

In my next post I will discuss when and how to change your bet size depending on whether you are making money or if you are going through a bad streak and your bankroll has dropped a few dollars.

By the way, I do get a lot of inquiries about my service which is $50.00 per month to get my plays e-mailed daily, and I appreciate the inquiries. If you cannot comfortably bet at least $20.00 per game do not pay for my service. What I do is not a get rich scheme for people that are in a desperate situation. Rather, it is an ongoing process that over one year should easily triple your starting bankroll.

Is betting the runline in baseball a sucker bet?

YES IT IS! The runline bet takes a favorite and turns it into an underdog. By example, let's say the NY Yankees are favored to win over Kansas City and the line is -180. That means you have to bet $180 to win $100. The sports books have created an enticing alternative called the runline. By example, they might make the runline on the Yankees +120 (-1 1/2 runs). That means that if the Yankees win by 2 runs and you bet $100 you will win $120. If they lose or only win by one run, you lose the bet.

DO NOT MAKE THIS BET! Statistics over time show that the number of one run games that occur in baseball are so significant, that anyone that bets the runline will eventually lose money.

This is an extremely popular bet. The last time I was in Las Vegas during baseball season, I was at the sportsbook at the Mirage. I could not believe the number of runline bets that were being made on teams that were favored to win. This bet is intoxicating.

If the Yankees beat a poor team like KC the previous day by a score of 10-1 think how easy it is to rationalize that the next day surely the Yankees will win by at least two runs. Sorry....it doesn't happen that way. If you want to make money, do not fall into the run line trap. Ultimately it is a sucker bet.

Stock Market Drops...No Effect on Sports Bettors

The beauty of sports investing is that the economy has zero effect on your plays and your results.

I do care greatly about the economy and how it effects our country and the world. So many factors such as employment/housing starts, the potential damage caused by the oil spill and the financial crisis in Europe impact our lives directly or indirectly.

You never know what will happen next and what it will mean to us personally, emotionally and economically.

I take solace in knowing the when I bet on sports with the purpose of making money that nothing related to the economy matters regardless of whether we are in times of boom or doom. That's comforting.

Why Pointspread Bettors Usually Lose.

Pointspread betting by far is the most common way that people bet. The most popular sports that people bet on are football and basketball. Baseball and hockey work a little different in that betting the money line is the traditional way of wagering on those sports.

Luckily, due to online sports books, betting the money line on football and basketball is readily available. We always bet moneyline underdogs no matter which sport we are betting. There are a number of alternative bets like run line betting in baseball, the grand salami in hockey and proposition bets in football that I will address later.

Let's take a look at tonight's pointspread on the NBA game between the Lakers and Celtics. The line has wavered a bit but let's say that the Lakers are favored on the pointspread by
-6 (-110). What that means is that if you bet on LA, they must win the game by 7 point for you to win. On the other hand, if you bet on Boston +6(-110) then Boston can lose the game by 5 points and you would still have a winning ticket. If the Lakers win by exactly 6 points, that is called a push (tie) and you get your original wager back.

Moneyline betting means that you bet a team to either win or lose regardless of the points. If you bet the underdog then you will always win more than you bet. You will see later in a future blog why this is the only way to go.

The problem you put yourself in when you make a pointspread bet is that you immediately put yourself in the hole because of the (-110) which is called the vig, vigorish or commission. If you want to win $100 on the Lakers, you have to bet $110. If you win, you win $100, but if you lose, you lose $110. Just to break even you have to win 52.38% of your bets. They may sound easy, but it is not. To really make good money, you will need to hit 55% of your bets or higher.

Now I will tell you that anyone can have a hot pointspread streak for a few day, a week or even a month. But when you see and hear about touts winning 70-80% or more of their bets, its usually based on a small sample of wagers unless they are outright lying. Most of these touts are great at marketing their service, but just average handicappers. Forget the enticing hype. Long term if you hit 55-60% of your pointspread bets, you are doing great.


The lines makers are very good at setting lines for games. They use incredibly complex computer algorithms to try to split the betting so each team receives 50% of the betting action. If there is a lot of money being bet on one team, then they will adjust the line accordingly to attract an equal amount of money on each side. This is not an exact science, but overall they get fairly close when they set the lines.

The important thing I want to drill down is that you do not want to start in the hole by betting the pointspread on a game unless you are making a small bet just to have some action or fun.

For the purpose of making serious money you want to focus on the money line !