It is inevitable that even the best handicappers will have winning and losing streaks. They will also have great months, average months and below average months.
Accept this as reality if you are a sports bettor.
The way to handle the ups and downs of your wagering is to maintain strict discipline with your money management. If you do that and have a solid foundation that leads to making good risk/reward bets then you will be OK .
Don't get too high on the winning streaks or too low on the losing streaks. Always maintain an even keel.
By example, the New York Yankees have the best record in baseball at 47-28. Yet, they have gone through two three game losing streaks and one four game losing streak this season.
Just take things in stride. What counts is not the day to day fluctuations, but rather how you do over the course of a month or year.
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Why You Should Bet on Baseball.
When you look at the three main sports that people wager on football gets the heaviest action, followed by basketball and then baseball. The irony is that there are a lot less possible plays in football than there are in baseball. You are talking about 16 games per team in football vs. 162 games per team in baseball .
If you are serious about making money you need to incorporate baseball into you betting strategy. It does not matter if you win a high profile football game like the Dallas Cowboys vs the Indy Colts, or if you win an obscure baseball game between the KC Royals vs the Baltimore Orioles. If you are flat betting you make the same money.
Some people shy away from baseball because most baseball betting is done on the money line rather than the point spread, which is what most people are comfortable with. However, money line betting is easy to understand and much more profitable than point spread betting.
If you have any questions, contact me.
Regards,
George K.
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
If you are serious about making money you need to incorporate baseball into you betting strategy. It does not matter if you win a high profile football game like the Dallas Cowboys vs the Indy Colts, or if you win an obscure baseball game between the KC Royals vs the Baltimore Orioles. If you are flat betting you make the same money.
Some people shy away from baseball because most baseball betting is done on the money line rather than the point spread, which is what most people are comfortable with. However, money line betting is easy to understand and much more profitable than point spread betting.
If you have any questions, contact me.
Regards,
George K.
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Thursday, June 24, 2010
Instant Gratification
Many people that bet on sports look for instant gratification. The idea of placing a bet online or with a bookie and winning is intoxicating.
Just think, with a phone call or a press of a mouse at your computer you can make a bet. If you have $1,000 dollars and you bet it all on one game that you know can’t lose, you will either double your money or lose everything.
If you lose, you are out of the game. If you win, more than likely you will also be out of the game; although it will take longer. A big win can be dangerous because you get caught up in irrational expectations.
Professional gamblers never try to hit a home run. They look for the day to day singles and doubles. Smart betting is actually mundane and boring. If you are an action freak you will probably blow up your account at some point.
Smart sports investors know that successful betting is a grind, not a quick fix.
Having a proven system and adhering to a strict money management system is the key to being a winner.
I am always asked what can I make if I bet on sports. I will not promise you pie in the sky results. However, if you follow my plays religiously you can expect to triple your money in three to nine months. That is much better than putting your money in the stock market.
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Just think, with a phone call or a press of a mouse at your computer you can make a bet. If you have $1,000 dollars and you bet it all on one game that you know can’t lose, you will either double your money or lose everything.
If you lose, you are out of the game. If you win, more than likely you will also be out of the game; although it will take longer. A big win can be dangerous because you get caught up in irrational expectations.
Professional gamblers never try to hit a home run. They look for the day to day singles and doubles. Smart betting is actually mundane and boring. If you are an action freak you will probably blow up your account at some point.
Smart sports investors know that successful betting is a grind, not a quick fix.
Having a proven system and adhering to a strict money management system is the key to being a winner.
I am always asked what can I make if I bet on sports. I will not promise you pie in the sky results. However, if you follow my plays religiously you can expect to triple your money in three to nine months. That is much better than putting your money in the stock market.
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Similarities between Sports Betting and Wall Street
Success in all types of investing or risk taking has a lot to do with controlling emotions. The psychological issues that drive financial investing and sports betting decisions are almost identical.
Here are three things to always be aware of:
GREED – When the greed circuitry of our brain kicks in, we fixate on
how great we will feel when we cash in winning plays or investments.
Conversely, we tend to ignore developments that could cause us to lose.
Many of us have placed what we consider to be sure, can’t lose bets.
Greed creates tunnel vision, which can easily intoxicate us and
minimize any thought of things going the wrong way. This thought
pattern is pervasive among bettors and investors.
You absolutely must understand the possibility that you may lose
your “sure thing” bet and consider all the negatives that may occur.
Always stop and think about what could be wrong. Be humble, not cavalier when
you bet.
Expect the unexpected and forget about sure plays of the month and all that
garbage. Rule number one is to protect what you have.
OVERCONFIDENCE – This normally happens when you are on a hot
streak, and you will be, when everything you touch is gold. There is
this incredible urge that just seems to take over causing you to “up the
anti” and bet more than you should and in some cases a lot more.
Betting properly is actually a day in day out mundane task. Done
properly it will bring you a regular stream of income. When you let
things get out of hand and step outside the betting parameters it will
invariably catch up to you.
REGRET/CHASING – One of the toughest things for sports
bettors or investors to do is to stay calm when they are losing.
The urge to make up for a recent loss is often the most dangerous period of
time for a bettor or investor. The desire to make up for losses
can be over powering. This may be the number one reason so many people become
losers.
They simply cannot control themselves and force themselves to try and make
up for their losses by doubling their bets or chasing a bet to try to make up
for a previous loss. When people get to this point, logic, proper money
management and following a system simply get thrown out the window.
Successful sports bettors know that the key to accumulating wealth is
making good consistent decisions. If you stick to the things you know
work and put your emotions into check mode you will be successful.
Don’t get too high when you are winning and don’t get too low when
you are losing. Just stick to the day to day best practices and you will
be a winner.
If you need a sports betting coach to guide you through the complex world of sports betting, contact me.
Regards,
George K.
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Here are three things to always be aware of:
GREED – When the greed circuitry of our brain kicks in, we fixate on
how great we will feel when we cash in winning plays or investments.
Conversely, we tend to ignore developments that could cause us to lose.
Many of us have placed what we consider to be sure, can’t lose bets.
Greed creates tunnel vision, which can easily intoxicate us and
minimize any thought of things going the wrong way. This thought
pattern is pervasive among bettors and investors.
You absolutely must understand the possibility that you may lose
your “sure thing” bet and consider all the negatives that may occur.
Always stop and think about what could be wrong. Be humble, not cavalier when
you bet.
Expect the unexpected and forget about sure plays of the month and all that
garbage. Rule number one is to protect what you have.
OVERCONFIDENCE – This normally happens when you are on a hot
streak, and you will be, when everything you touch is gold. There is
this incredible urge that just seems to take over causing you to “up the
anti” and bet more than you should and in some cases a lot more.
Betting properly is actually a day in day out mundane task. Done
properly it will bring you a regular stream of income. When you let
things get out of hand and step outside the betting parameters it will
invariably catch up to you.
REGRET/CHASING – One of the toughest things for sports
bettors or investors to do is to stay calm when they are losing.
The urge to make up for a recent loss is often the most dangerous period of
time for a bettor or investor. The desire to make up for losses
can be over powering. This may be the number one reason so many people become
losers.
They simply cannot control themselves and force themselves to try and make
up for their losses by doubling their bets or chasing a bet to try to make up
for a previous loss. When people get to this point, logic, proper money
management and following a system simply get thrown out the window.
Successful sports bettors know that the key to accumulating wealth is
making good consistent decisions. If you stick to the things you know
work and put your emotions into check mode you will be successful.
Don’t get too high when you are winning and don’t get too low when
you are losing. Just stick to the day to day best practices and you will
be a winner.
If you need a sports betting coach to guide you through the complex world of sports betting, contact me.
Regards,
George K.
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Thursday, June 17, 2010
5Dimes.com vs. BetJamaica.com
Even though there are no plays today, I analyzed the differences in the lines for all of the first 5 inning underdogs listed today between (5Dimes vs BetJamaica)
Credit should be given to MB of Massachusetts for pointing out the excellent lines at BetJaimaica. In many cases,I found the lines were better at BetJamaica.com
I have been starting everyone at 5Dimes.com, and if you only have enough money for one account, then stick to 5Dimes. They are still one of the best books around. If you have enough money to spread to another sportsbook, then open an account at BetJamaica. Please note that they are both rated A+ at www.sportsbookreview.com
These books allow interbook transfers as long as you are sending at least $500.00 and there is no charge.
If you do a straight deposit to BetJamaica, please note that they have different preferences as to the method of deposit than 5 Dimes. So read the deposit instructions carefully. Also pay attention to the bonus they offer for opening a new account. Sometimes you have to ask for it.
Full Disclosure: I am already an affiliate with 5Dimes and I have talked to the folkes at BetJamaica and plan on signing up as one of their affiliates, also . This means I benefit for each person that signs up there through me. Whatever the benefit is, I will take it off of the monthly fee that you send me. We are in this thing together. I will let everyone know what
the end result is.
Please contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Credit should be given to MB of Massachusetts for pointing out the excellent lines at BetJaimaica. In many cases,I found the lines were better at BetJamaica.com
I have been starting everyone at 5Dimes.com, and if you only have enough money for one account, then stick to 5Dimes. They are still one of the best books around. If you have enough money to spread to another sportsbook, then open an account at BetJamaica. Please note that they are both rated A+ at www.sportsbookreview.com
These books allow interbook transfers as long as you are sending at least $500.00 and there is no charge.
If you do a straight deposit to BetJamaica, please note that they have different preferences as to the method of deposit than 5 Dimes. So read the deposit instructions carefully. Also pay attention to the bonus they offer for opening a new account. Sometimes you have to ask for it.
Full Disclosure: I am already an affiliate with 5Dimes and I have talked to the folkes at BetJamaica and plan on signing up as one of their affiliates, also . This means I benefit for each person that signs up there through me. Whatever the benefit is, I will take it off of the monthly fee that you send me. We are in this thing together. I will let everyone know what
the end result is.
Please contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Top Ten Ways to Lose Money
Credit for part of the top ten can be credited to JR Miller.
1. Always bet more than you can afford to lose. Gamble with the rent money, or the kid’s college fund, or the grocery money, or the car payment. Risk more than you can afford to lose. This certainly make things more exciting
2. Keep changing the sizes of your bets. Consider doubling up after a losing day in order to get even, or why not double up after a winning day to really have a big day.
3. Always bet according to your hunches. Betting according to your gut feelings is a real nifty short-cut to losing money. If you feel like you're 'due' a winning day, increase the size of your bets. Or if you get a hunch that a particular team is ready to get hot, load up on them and don't let anyone talk you out of it.
4. Anybody will win now and then if they bet propositions. Those stupid bets like betting on who will win the Super Bowl coin toss can be categorized as gambling and not sports investing.
5. Whenever you gamble, be tired, drink up, and flirt. Breaking this rule could be one of the reasons you've been winning in the first place
6. Pay for advice from touts who claim to win at least 70% of their picks. Truth is that winning 70% of your bets over time is impossible. Anyone can have a great week or a great month. But that type of winning percentage cannot be maintained.
7. Never read books or articles by experts, never do research. Always try new systems and ideas while you're playing with real money. Never practice or double-check a system at home before hand, and never read anything by acknowledged experts.
8. Always impress people with the size of your bets. It’s an ego thing like driving a muscle car. The good news is that if you drop $300 or $400 at the Las Vegas sportsbook, the casino will probably comp you the $10.95 buffet.
9. Consider winning or losing as a direct test of your self worth. Do not graciously accept that losing streaks are part of what happens to any successful sports bettor.
10. Bet just high profile games. Nothing wrong with betting a televised game because it is fun to watch, but they are the games that are most analyzed and scrutinized. A relatively obscure $100 bet on Montana vs Idaho State is worth the same payback as a high profile bet playing the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New England Patriots.
1. Always bet more than you can afford to lose. Gamble with the rent money, or the kid’s college fund, or the grocery money, or the car payment. Risk more than you can afford to lose. This certainly make things more exciting
2. Keep changing the sizes of your bets. Consider doubling up after a losing day in order to get even, or why not double up after a winning day to really have a big day.
3. Always bet according to your hunches. Betting according to your gut feelings is a real nifty short-cut to losing money. If you feel like you're 'due' a winning day, increase the size of your bets. Or if you get a hunch that a particular team is ready to get hot, load up on them and don't let anyone talk you out of it.
4. Anybody will win now and then if they bet propositions. Those stupid bets like betting on who will win the Super Bowl coin toss can be categorized as gambling and not sports investing.
5. Whenever you gamble, be tired, drink up, and flirt. Breaking this rule could be one of the reasons you've been winning in the first place
6. Pay for advice from touts who claim to win at least 70% of their picks. Truth is that winning 70% of your bets over time is impossible. Anyone can have a great week or a great month. But that type of winning percentage cannot be maintained.
7. Never read books or articles by experts, never do research. Always try new systems and ideas while you're playing with real money. Never practice or double-check a system at home before hand, and never read anything by acknowledged experts.
8. Always impress people with the size of your bets. It’s an ego thing like driving a muscle car. The good news is that if you drop $300 or $400 at the Las Vegas sportsbook, the casino will probably comp you the $10.95 buffet.
9. Consider winning or losing as a direct test of your self worth. Do not graciously accept that losing streaks are part of what happens to any successful sports bettor.
10. Bet just high profile games. Nothing wrong with betting a televised game because it is fun to watch, but they are the games that are most analyzed and scrutinized. A relatively obscure $100 bet on Montana vs Idaho State is worth the same payback as a high profile bet playing the Dallas Cowboys vs. the New England Patriots.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Are Online Sportsbook Accounts Safe ?
The answer is yes and no. There are a lot of sportsbooks out there that will gladly take your deposit. The key is finding the ones that can be trusted to send you money when you request a payout. There is an excellent website you might want to check out: www.sportsbookreview.com they review and rate a large number of sportsbooks.
I have never had a problem when requesting money and I try to stick to the best rated sportsbooks. It's a good idea to spread your money and use more than one sports book if you can. Besides reducing your risk. you can shop lines and get the best price for your wager.
One of my clients recently compared the lines for our plays at three different sports books. There was quite a bit of variation in the prices. If you can get +130 instead of +125 on one of our money line plays the difference over time is significant.
I have never had a problem when requesting money and I try to stick to the best rated sportsbooks. It's a good idea to spread your money and use more than one sports book if you can. Besides reducing your risk. you can shop lines and get the best price for your wager.
One of my clients recently compared the lines for our plays at three different sports books. There was quite a bit of variation in the prices. If you can get +130 instead of +125 on one of our money line plays the difference over time is significant.
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
When to Change Your Bet Size
Let's say your bankroll is $1,000. This is the amount you have set aside to bet. You decide you are comfortable betting 3% per game ( remember you can use between 2% and 4%). That would make your bet size $30.00.
You can increase your bet size if you are making money. So if you take your account up to $1,500 , 3% of $1,500 will become your new bet amount. That would make your new betting unit(size) $45.00.
On the other hand, let's say your account temorarily drops to $900.00. You do not adjust your betting size downward. You keep it at $30.00. We only adjust our betting size when our account goes up in value. If you drop your bet size because your bankroll has gone down, then you will need a higher percentage of winners just to get back up to breakeven.
Since your bet size is only 2%-4%, you have enough of a buffer zone to make up for any loses without having to reduce your bet size.
You can increase your bet size if you are making money. So if you take your account up to $1,500 , 3% of $1,500 will become your new bet amount. That would make your new betting unit(size) $45.00.
On the other hand, let's say your account temorarily drops to $900.00. You do not adjust your betting size downward. You keep it at $30.00. We only adjust our betting size when our account goes up in value. If you drop your bet size because your bankroll has gone down, then you will need a higher percentage of winners just to get back up to breakeven.
Since your bet size is only 2%-4%, you have enough of a buffer zone to make up for any loses without having to reduce your bet size.
Case in Point - Why You Must Flat Bet.
Forty-eight hours ago Ray Allen hit eight 3 pointers to lead the Celtics to victory over the LA Lakers. Last night the same Ray Allen missed eight three pointers and 5 short shots. This
All Star went from one of his best games ever to one of his worse.
Always remember that anything can happen. Betting properly puts you in a good position to make money. However, the short term fluctuations are inevitable. My subscribers have seen us go 0W-3L on any given day. The have also seen 4W-0L. What counts is where you stand at the end of the month.
If you do not flat bet there is a good chance you will get emotional with your betting, use different bet sizes, double your bet after a bad run to make up for losses and so on. Let's not get caught up in these emotional traps.
All Star went from one of his best games ever to one of his worse.
Always remember that anything can happen. Betting properly puts you in a good position to make money. However, the short term fluctuations are inevitable. My subscribers have seen us go 0W-3L on any given day. The have also seen 4W-0L. What counts is where you stand at the end of the month.
If you do not flat bet there is a good chance you will get emotional with your betting, use different bet sizes, double your bet after a bad run to make up for losses and so on. Let's not get caught up in these emotional traps.
Flat Betting....The Only Way to Go!
I want to revisit the importance of managing your money properly in order to make money betting on sports. No matter how strongly you feel about a bet, you have to bet the same amount on each bet you make. This is called flat betting. Forget the following notions:
1. This is a 5 star play!
2. Play of the month!
3. Can't miss!
4. Unload on this one, and so on.
If you are a beginner, shut out all the hype and bet the same amount on every game.. Always remember Murphy's Law: What can go wrong will go wrong.
If you are an experienced bettor but are losing money I would bet that you do not have a solid, unwavering money management system in place that you stick to no matter what.
I spent the last few days studying my recommended bet amounts. In class I have been telling folkes to bet 2% of their total bankroll. Your bankroll is the money you have set aside for betting. It's not your monthly rent, food or child support obligations.
One adjustment I have made and this is particularly important for my current subscribers, is that you can bet between 2%-4% of your bankroll and still keep your money safe. So by example if your allocated bankroll is $1000, 2% would be $20 and 4% would be $40 per bet.
In my next post I will discuss when and how to change your bet size depending on whether you are making money or if you are going through a bad streak and your bankroll has dropped a few dollars.
By the way, I do get a lot of inquiries about my service which is $50.00 per month to get my plays e-mailed daily, and I appreciate the inquiries. If you cannot comfortably bet at least $20.00 per game do not pay for my service. What I do is not a get rich scheme for people that are in a desperate situation. Rather, it is an ongoing process that over one year should easily triple your starting bankroll.
1. This is a 5 star play!
2. Play of the month!
3. Can't miss!
4. Unload on this one, and so on.
If you are a beginner, shut out all the hype and bet the same amount on every game.. Always remember Murphy's Law: What can go wrong will go wrong.
If you are an experienced bettor but are losing money I would bet that you do not have a solid, unwavering money management system in place that you stick to no matter what.
I spent the last few days studying my recommended bet amounts. In class I have been telling folkes to bet 2% of their total bankroll. Your bankroll is the money you have set aside for betting. It's not your monthly rent, food or child support obligations.
One adjustment I have made and this is particularly important for my current subscribers, is that you can bet between 2%-4% of your bankroll and still keep your money safe. So by example if your allocated bankroll is $1000, 2% would be $20 and 4% would be $40 per bet.
In my next post I will discuss when and how to change your bet size depending on whether you are making money or if you are going through a bad streak and your bankroll has dropped a few dollars.
By the way, I do get a lot of inquiries about my service which is $50.00 per month to get my plays e-mailed daily, and I appreciate the inquiries. If you cannot comfortably bet at least $20.00 per game do not pay for my service. What I do is not a get rich scheme for people that are in a desperate situation. Rather, it is an ongoing process that over one year should easily triple your starting bankroll.
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Is betting the runline in baseball a sucker bet?
YES IT IS! The runline bet takes a favorite and turns it into an underdog. By example, let's say the NY Yankees are favored to win over Kansas City and the line is -180. That means you have to bet $180 to win $100. The sports books have created an enticing alternative called the runline. By example, they might make the runline on the Yankees +120 (-1 1/2 runs). That means that if the Yankees win by 2 runs and you bet $100 you will win $120. If they lose or only win by one run, you lose the bet.
DO NOT MAKE THIS BET! Statistics over time show that the number of one run games that occur in baseball are so significant, that anyone that bets the runline will eventually lose money.
This is an extremely popular bet. The last time I was in Las Vegas during baseball season, I was at the sportsbook at the Mirage. I could not believe the number of runline bets that were being made on teams that were favored to win. This bet is intoxicating.
If the Yankees beat a poor team like KC the previous day by a score of 10-1 think how easy it is to rationalize that the next day surely the Yankees will win by at least two runs. Sorry....it doesn't happen that way. If you want to make money, do not fall into the run line trap. Ultimately it is a sucker bet.
DO NOT MAKE THIS BET! Statistics over time show that the number of one run games that occur in baseball are so significant, that anyone that bets the runline will eventually lose money.
This is an extremely popular bet. The last time I was in Las Vegas during baseball season, I was at the sportsbook at the Mirage. I could not believe the number of runline bets that were being made on teams that were favored to win. This bet is intoxicating.
If the Yankees beat a poor team like KC the previous day by a score of 10-1 think how easy it is to rationalize that the next day surely the Yankees will win by at least two runs. Sorry....it doesn't happen that way. If you want to make money, do not fall into the run line trap. Ultimately it is a sucker bet.
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Stock Market Drops...No Effect on Sports Bettors
The beauty of sports investing is that the economy has zero effect on your plays and your results.
I do care greatly about the economy and how it effects our country and the world. So many factors such as employment/housing starts, the potential damage caused by the oil spill and the financial crisis in Europe impact our lives directly or indirectly.
You never know what will happen next and what it will mean to us personally, emotionally and economically.
I take solace in knowing the when I bet on sports with the purpose of making money that nothing related to the economy matters regardless of whether we are in times of boom or doom. That's comforting.
I do care greatly about the economy and how it effects our country and the world. So many factors such as employment/housing starts, the potential damage caused by the oil spill and the financial crisis in Europe impact our lives directly or indirectly.
You never know what will happen next and what it will mean to us personally, emotionally and economically.
I take solace in knowing the when I bet on sports with the purpose of making money that nothing related to the economy matters regardless of whether we are in times of boom or doom. That's comforting.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Why Pointspread Bettors Usually Lose.
Pointspread betting by far is the most common way that people bet. The most popular sports that people bet on are football and basketball. Baseball and hockey work a little different in that betting the money line is the traditional way of wagering on those sports.
Luckily, due to online sports books, betting the money line on football and basketball is readily available. We always bet moneyline underdogs no matter which sport we are betting. There are a number of alternative bets like run line betting in baseball, the grand salami in hockey and proposition bets in football that I will address later.
Let's take a look at tonight's pointspread on the NBA game between the Lakers and Celtics. The line has wavered a bit but let's say that the Lakers are favored on the pointspread by
-6 (-110). What that means is that if you bet on LA, they must win the game by 7 point for you to win. On the other hand, if you bet on Boston +6(-110) then Boston can lose the game by 5 points and you would still have a winning ticket. If the Lakers win by exactly 6 points, that is called a push (tie) and you get your original wager back.
Moneyline betting means that you bet a team to either win or lose regardless of the points. If you bet the underdog then you will always win more than you bet. You will see later in a future blog why this is the only way to go.
The problem you put yourself in when you make a pointspread bet is that you immediately put yourself in the hole because of the (-110) which is called the vig, vigorish or commission. If you want to win $100 on the Lakers, you have to bet $110. If you win, you win $100, but if you lose, you lose $110. Just to break even you have to win 52.38% of your bets. They may sound easy, but it is not. To really make good money, you will need to hit 55% of your bets or higher.
Now I will tell you that anyone can have a hot pointspread streak for a few day, a week or even a month. But when you see and hear about touts winning 70-80% or more of their bets, its usually based on a small sample of wagers unless they are outright lying. Most of these touts are great at marketing their service, but just average handicappers. Forget the enticing hype. Long term if you hit 55-60% of your pointspread bets, you are doing great.
The lines makers are very good at setting lines for games. They use incredibly complex computer algorithms to try to split the betting so each team receives 50% of the betting action. If there is a lot of money being bet on one team, then they will adjust the line accordingly to attract an equal amount of money on each side. This is not an exact science, but overall they get fairly close when they set the lines.
The important thing I want to drill down is that you do not want to start in the hole by betting the pointspread on a game unless you are making a small bet just to have some action or fun.
For the purpose of making serious money you want to focus on the money line !
Luckily, due to online sports books, betting the money line on football and basketball is readily available. We always bet moneyline underdogs no matter which sport we are betting. There are a number of alternative bets like run line betting in baseball, the grand salami in hockey and proposition bets in football that I will address later.
Let's take a look at tonight's pointspread on the NBA game between the Lakers and Celtics. The line has wavered a bit but let's say that the Lakers are favored on the pointspread by
-6 (-110). What that means is that if you bet on LA, they must win the game by 7 point for you to win. On the other hand, if you bet on Boston +6(-110) then Boston can lose the game by 5 points and you would still have a winning ticket. If the Lakers win by exactly 6 points, that is called a push (tie) and you get your original wager back.
Moneyline betting means that you bet a team to either win or lose regardless of the points. If you bet the underdog then you will always win more than you bet. You will see later in a future blog why this is the only way to go.
The problem you put yourself in when you make a pointspread bet is that you immediately put yourself in the hole because of the (-110) which is called the vig, vigorish or commission. If you want to win $100 on the Lakers, you have to bet $110. If you win, you win $100, but if you lose, you lose $110. Just to break even you have to win 52.38% of your bets. They may sound easy, but it is not. To really make good money, you will need to hit 55% of your bets or higher.
Now I will tell you that anyone can have a hot pointspread streak for a few day, a week or even a month. But when you see and hear about touts winning 70-80% or more of their bets, its usually based on a small sample of wagers unless they are outright lying. Most of these touts are great at marketing their service, but just average handicappers. Forget the enticing hype. Long term if you hit 55-60% of your pointspread bets, you are doing great.
The lines makers are very good at setting lines for games. They use incredibly complex computer algorithms to try to split the betting so each team receives 50% of the betting action. If there is a lot of money being bet on one team, then they will adjust the line accordingly to attract an equal amount of money on each side. This is not an exact science, but overall they get fairly close when they set the lines.
The important thing I want to drill down is that you do not want to start in the hole by betting the pointspread on a game unless you are making a small bet just to have some action or fun.
For the purpose of making serious money you want to focus on the money line !
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