Good Morning,
Here are a couple of observations. The NFL is by far the most bet on sport in the USA. Pre-Season has started and sports bettors are very excited. All of the sudden, people are not paying as much attention to baseball.
This happens every year. When I looked at today's baseball games, the lines on the underdogs are coming in very high. This is great for us. We do not care if we are betting on a high profile game or on a game that is under the radar. Our goal is to make money.
You will see a good number of bets in baseball that might make you cringe. If you are a subscriber, play them.
There are handicappers that do bet on pre-seasonfootball games, but I am not one of them. The problem I have is that preseason is an audition for a spot on the team. Lst night I watched the Redskin-Steeler game. I lost count, but there were six or seven different quarterbacks that got in the game.
I might be leaving money on the table, but I know what works for me, and I will stick to first half money line baseball underdog plays and wait until the regular NFL season gets underway.
As a side note, if you like reading sports magazines, you can find whatever you are looking for at www.gamblersbookclub.com
I always get Phil Steele's College Review. I like to know what is going on with returning starters, etc.
But right now, we are focused on baseball! There is money waiting to be made
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
ps. contact me for subscription information
Saturday, August 13, 2011
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
Never Pay Juice
Good Afternoon,
Sunday we lost our LA Angels play vs Detroit. We had two of the best pitchers in baseball going at it (Verlander and Weaver). The line for the first five innings was LA Angels +120. We lost 2-0 , but that was a quality play.
I mentioned Sunday that the game was a toss up and that it depended on who showed up. Verlander of Detroit SHOWED UP and came close to pitching a no hitter.
To say that we made a quality play, but lost, sounds like "The operation was a success, but the patient died."
If I were not betting to make money, I actually would have taken the under in that game, which was a winner. The problem is that the line was 6 1/2 - 130.
At -130 you would need to win almost 57% of your plays just to break even.
At -120 you would need to win about 55% and at -110 you would have to win about 53% of the your plays to break even. Basically when you pay juice, also known as commission, vig or vigorish, you are in the hole before the game even starts.
If you make it a policy to never pay juice, you will automatically put yourself in a favorable position to win over the long haul.
George
703-217-0805
Sunday we lost our LA Angels play vs Detroit. We had two of the best pitchers in baseball going at it (Verlander and Weaver). The line for the first five innings was LA Angels +120. We lost 2-0 , but that was a quality play.
I mentioned Sunday that the game was a toss up and that it depended on who showed up. Verlander of Detroit SHOWED UP and came close to pitching a no hitter.
To say that we made a quality play, but lost, sounds like "The operation was a success, but the patient died."
If I were not betting to make money, I actually would have taken the under in that game, which was a winner. The problem is that the line was 6 1/2 - 130.
At -130 you would need to win almost 57% of your plays just to break even.
At -120 you would need to win about 55% and at -110 you would have to win about 53% of the your plays to break even. Basically when you pay juice, also known as commission, vig or vigorish, you are in the hole before the game even starts.
If you make it a policy to never pay juice, you will automatically put yourself in a favorable position to win over the long haul.
George
703-217-0805
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
The Gambling Gods Can Be Kind
Good Morning,
Last night we had a really wacky win. We bet Baltimore +110 to be leading Boston after five innings of play. Baltimore was the home team. With two outs in the bottom of the 5th, Boston was leading 6-2. I just figured that would be a loss.
Baltimore ended up scoring five runs and took the lead 7-6, which gave
us a win. Boston scored eight runs in the eight inning and won the game 15-10.
Sometimes we will have fortunate wins and sometimes we will have tough losses.
It comes with the territory. What is interesting is that we tend to remember the tough losses more than the fortunate wins.
I still clearly recall a two loss day about three years ago. I was leading two college basketball games as the first half was coming to a close. I lost both games on last second three point shots from midcourt. I couldn't believe it.
Reality, is that over the long haul the fortunate wins and tough loses even themselves out. That is why we only bet underdog money lines.
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Last night we had a really wacky win. We bet Baltimore +110 to be leading Boston after five innings of play. Baltimore was the home team. With two outs in the bottom of the 5th, Boston was leading 6-2. I just figured that would be a loss.
Baltimore ended up scoring five runs and took the lead 7-6, which gave
us a win. Boston scored eight runs in the eight inning and won the game 15-10.
Sometimes we will have fortunate wins and sometimes we will have tough losses.
It comes with the territory. What is interesting is that we tend to remember the tough losses more than the fortunate wins.
I still clearly recall a two loss day about three years ago. I was leading two college basketball games as the first half was coming to a close. I lost both games on last second three point shots from midcourt. I couldn't believe it.
Reality, is that over the long haul the fortunate wins and tough loses even themselves out. That is why we only bet underdog money lines.
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Friday, July 8, 2011
When Very Good Pitchers Face Elite Pitchers
Good Morning,
Today one of our plays is Atlanta vs. Philadelphia for the first five innings. The payback on Atlanta is a very nice +160 The last time that Roy Halladay pitched for Philadelphia I stayed out of his way. He is one of the best in the business.
What is different about tonight's game is that Atlanta has been playing very well lately and they are sending Brandon Beachy to the mound. Beachy is flying under the radar right now, and a lot of people do not know much about him. He is going to be very good.
An interesting thing happens when a good pitcher faces the best. Often a confident, good pitcher relishes the opportunity to go against the elite. It is not uncommon to see them elevate they game to a high level.
Of course, this does not always happen, but with a strong takeback of +160 we have an excellent chance of leading this game after five innings. Even if we are behind 10-0 after five, this is still a very good bet as our goal is to win 50% of our plays.
Today one of our plays is Atlanta vs. Philadelphia for the first five innings. The payback on Atlanta is a very nice +160 The last time that Roy Halladay pitched for Philadelphia I stayed out of his way. He is one of the best in the business.
What is different about tonight's game is that Atlanta has been playing very well lately and they are sending Brandon Beachy to the mound. Beachy is flying under the radar right now, and a lot of people do not know much about him. He is going to be very good.
An interesting thing happens when a good pitcher faces the best. Often a confident, good pitcher relishes the opportunity to go against the elite. It is not uncommon to see them elevate they game to a high level.
Of course, this does not always happen, but with a strong takeback of +160 we have an excellent chance of leading this game after five innings. Even if we are behind 10-0 after five, this is still a very good bet as our goal is to win 50% of our plays.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Winning Streaks and Losing Streaks
Good Evening,
If we are on a losing streak, which will happen, there is a strong tendency for players to skip some plays or wait until we are on a winning streak to start betting again . Bad idea.
On the other hand, if we are on a strong winning streak which will also happen, some clients will double their bet size, etc. Another bad idea.
Bob McCune, my mentor, taught me that betting on sports, especially
Baseball (162 games per year)is a grind filled with ups and downs. Never get too high or too low based on your results.
Sports bettng is exciting. However, making money is even more exciting. I highly recommend that you stay with all of the plays that I recommend and flat bet each one with the same amount of money regardless if we are doing great or if we are in a funk.
We never really know if we are going to have a bad month or if we are going to hit a home run. In the long run we will prevail and we will be profitable. Stay with it play by play.
If we are on a losing streak, which will happen, there is a strong tendency for players to skip some plays or wait until we are on a winning streak to start betting again . Bad idea.
On the other hand, if we are on a strong winning streak which will also happen, some clients will double their bet size, etc. Another bad idea.
Bob McCune, my mentor, taught me that betting on sports, especially
Baseball (162 games per year)is a grind filled with ups and downs. Never get too high or too low based on your results.
Sports bettng is exciting. However, making money is even more exciting. I highly recommend that you stay with all of the plays that I recommend and flat bet each one with the same amount of money regardless if we are doing great or if we are in a funk.
We never really know if we are going to have a bad month or if we are going to hit a home run. In the long run we will prevail and we will be profitable. Stay with it play by play.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Run Line Betting on Baseball
I just exchanged e-mails with a client about arbitrage betting. Arbitage betting is when you place a bet on both teams playing each other. You have to use two sportsbooks and the scenario has to be like this: If Boston is playing Cleveland and they are favored -150, if you find Cleveland at another sportsbook at +155 you can bet both sides and you can't lose. Very rarely happens anymore with American sports.
I do want to address a similar concept that involves betting both sides of a baseball game. We will use today's Texas vs Houston game as an example. Earlier today, Texas was -120 and Houston was +110. However, if you bet the runline, Texas was -1 1/2 +150. This means that if you bet Texas on the runline and they win by two or more runs you would bet $100 to win $150. You basically have taken a favorite and turned them into an underdog. Now, if you take this bet one step further and bet $100 on Houston +110 the only way you can lose if if Texas only wins by one run.
This is an extremely attractive bet and a lot of people bet runline favorites. The problem is that you will lose money over the long haul.
When I first learned this approach I thought I discovered the Holt Grail of Baseball Betting, but I didn't. If Texas were to beat Houston by one run you would actually lose both sides of the bet.
You might find a spot here or there where making a runline bet might make sense, but you will lose if you bet them long term. As an exercise, you might pick 3-4 of the top teams and watch what happens over a month's time if you played them on the runline. The problem is there are so many games where the favorite wins by only one run. As I mentioned, if you lose, you lose both bets. Stay away from runlines unless you are using fun money. Trust me, been there done that.
Focus on making money long-term.
I do want to address a similar concept that involves betting both sides of a baseball game. We will use today's Texas vs Houston game as an example. Earlier today, Texas was -120 and Houston was +110. However, if you bet the runline, Texas was -1 1/2 +150. This means that if you bet Texas on the runline and they win by two or more runs you would bet $100 to win $150. You basically have taken a favorite and turned them into an underdog. Now, if you take this bet one step further and bet $100 on Houston +110 the only way you can lose if if Texas only wins by one run.
This is an extremely attractive bet and a lot of people bet runline favorites. The problem is that you will lose money over the long haul.
When I first learned this approach I thought I discovered the Holt Grail of Baseball Betting, but I didn't. If Texas were to beat Houston by one run you would actually lose both sides of the bet.
You might find a spot here or there where making a runline bet might make sense, but you will lose if you bet them long term. As an exercise, you might pick 3-4 of the top teams and watch what happens over a month's time if you played them on the runline. The problem is there are so many games where the favorite wins by only one run. As I mentioned, if you lose, you lose both bets. Stay away from runlines unless you are using fun money. Trust me, been there done that.
Focus on making money long-term.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Doing a Parlay on Two Big Baseball Favorites
Good Afternoon,
I have an astute client that asked me if betting the two biggest baseball favorites in a parlay would be profitable long term.
With a two team parlay, both teams must win in order for you to win the bet. Baseball parlays work different than football or basketball pointspread parlays.
All baseball parlays are going to be on the money line. If you combine
two -200 baseball games in a parlay and you win them both you would risk $100 to win $100 (appoximately).
This is a very tempting bet, especially when you have two great pitchers going against two mediocre teams. If you win a couple of these in a row you will think that you have unlocked the key to winning during baseball season.
If things were that easy we could all make a bunch of money. Just think how nice it would be to get up each morning and bet the two highest baseball favorites in a parlay and be done with the day.
Years ago when I first came across this method of betting, I was very excited.
Unfortunately over the long term this approach will not make you money. I won't get into all of the statistical and mathematical reasons why.
What I will tell you is that the best teams will win about 60% of their games and the worse teams will win about 40% of their games. That is too tight of a difference to make any real money.
You might want to paper trade this type of bet in July to see what kind of results you get. You might have a winning month, but when you look at the big picture, this is not the way to go.
Stick with my plays and you will make money.
I have an astute client that asked me if betting the two biggest baseball favorites in a parlay would be profitable long term.
With a two team parlay, both teams must win in order for you to win the bet. Baseball parlays work different than football or basketball pointspread parlays.
All baseball parlays are going to be on the money line. If you combine
two -200 baseball games in a parlay and you win them both you would risk $100 to win $100 (appoximately).
This is a very tempting bet, especially when you have two great pitchers going against two mediocre teams. If you win a couple of these in a row you will think that you have unlocked the key to winning during baseball season.
If things were that easy we could all make a bunch of money. Just think how nice it would be to get up each morning and bet the two highest baseball favorites in a parlay and be done with the day.
Years ago when I first came across this method of betting, I was very excited.
Unfortunately over the long term this approach will not make you money. I won't get into all of the statistical and mathematical reasons why.
What I will tell you is that the best teams will win about 60% of their games and the worse teams will win about 40% of their games. That is too tight of a difference to make any real money.
You might want to paper trade this type of bet in July to see what kind of results you get. You might have a winning month, but when you look at the big picture, this is not the way to go.
Stick with my plays and you will make money.
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