I just exchanged e-mails with a client about arbitrage betting. Arbitage betting is when you place a bet on both teams playing each other. You have to use two sportsbooks and the scenario has to be like this: If Boston is playing Cleveland and they are favored -150, if you find Cleveland at another sportsbook at +155 you can bet both sides and you can't lose. Very rarely happens anymore with American sports.
I do want to address a similar concept that involves betting both sides of a baseball game. We will use today's Texas vs Houston game as an example. Earlier today, Texas was -120 and Houston was +110. However, if you bet the runline, Texas was -1 1/2 +150. This means that if you bet Texas on the runline and they win by two or more runs you would bet $100 to win $150. You basically have taken a favorite and turned them into an underdog. Now, if you take this bet one step further and bet $100 on Houston +110 the only way you can lose if if Texas only wins by one run.
This is an extremely attractive bet and a lot of people bet runline favorites. The problem is that you will lose money over the long haul.
When I first learned this approach I thought I discovered the Holt Grail of Baseball Betting, but I didn't. If Texas were to beat Houston by one run you would actually lose both sides of the bet.
You might find a spot here or there where making a runline bet might make sense, but you will lose if you bet them long term. As an exercise, you might pick 3-4 of the top teams and watch what happens over a month's time if you played them on the runline. The problem is there are so many games where the favorite wins by only one run. As I mentioned, if you lose, you lose both bets. Stay away from runlines unless you are using fun money. Trust me, been there done that.
Focus on making money long-term.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
Doing a Parlay on Two Big Baseball Favorites
Good Afternoon,
I have an astute client that asked me if betting the two biggest baseball favorites in a parlay would be profitable long term.
With a two team parlay, both teams must win in order for you to win the bet. Baseball parlays work different than football or basketball pointspread parlays.
All baseball parlays are going to be on the money line. If you combine
two -200 baseball games in a parlay and you win them both you would risk $100 to win $100 (appoximately).
This is a very tempting bet, especially when you have two great pitchers going against two mediocre teams. If you win a couple of these in a row you will think that you have unlocked the key to winning during baseball season.
If things were that easy we could all make a bunch of money. Just think how nice it would be to get up each morning and bet the two highest baseball favorites in a parlay and be done with the day.
Years ago when I first came across this method of betting, I was very excited.
Unfortunately over the long term this approach will not make you money. I won't get into all of the statistical and mathematical reasons why.
What I will tell you is that the best teams will win about 60% of their games and the worse teams will win about 40% of their games. That is too tight of a difference to make any real money.
You might want to paper trade this type of bet in July to see what kind of results you get. You might have a winning month, but when you look at the big picture, this is not the way to go.
Stick with my plays and you will make money.
I have an astute client that asked me if betting the two biggest baseball favorites in a parlay would be profitable long term.
With a two team parlay, both teams must win in order for you to win the bet. Baseball parlays work different than football or basketball pointspread parlays.
All baseball parlays are going to be on the money line. If you combine
two -200 baseball games in a parlay and you win them both you would risk $100 to win $100 (appoximately).
This is a very tempting bet, especially when you have two great pitchers going against two mediocre teams. If you win a couple of these in a row you will think that you have unlocked the key to winning during baseball season.
If things were that easy we could all make a bunch of money. Just think how nice it would be to get up each morning and bet the two highest baseball favorites in a parlay and be done with the day.
Years ago when I first came across this method of betting, I was very excited.
Unfortunately over the long term this approach will not make you money. I won't get into all of the statistical and mathematical reasons why.
What I will tell you is that the best teams will win about 60% of their games and the worse teams will win about 40% of their games. That is too tight of a difference to make any real money.
You might want to paper trade this type of bet in July to see what kind of results you get. You might have a winning month, but when you look at the big picture, this is not the way to go.
Stick with my plays and you will make money.
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
A Lesson from Peter Lynch
Most people over 35 years of age will remember Peter Lynch. He managed the very successful Magellan Mutual Fund. One of his key approaches was deciding which companies he wanted to stay away from at all costs.
The same principle applies to sports investing. One of the key things I look at is which teams to bet against. I work backwards from that point to see if I have a possible play. There are, of course, a lot of factors to look at in baseball.
One thing you do not want to do is to bet against a team that is on a losing streak.
With 162 games being played by each team, even the best will have losing streaks.
It is very tempting to bet on a team BECAUSE THEY ARE DUE FOR A WIN. Don't do this. It's like getting in front of a run away freight train.
June will be over in just three days. We have two plays today and a strong probabiliy that we will hit our expected average of 8-10 units a month.
I'm not sure where we will end up, but I know we will have a winning month. Even if we are only up 5 units, that would mean that $100 bettors will still be up $500 for June.
I charge $49.00 per month for my advisory service. You will receive plays daily via e-mail and I provide full phone and e-mail support. I take payments through PayPal.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
The same principle applies to sports investing. One of the key things I look at is which teams to bet against. I work backwards from that point to see if I have a possible play. There are, of course, a lot of factors to look at in baseball.
One thing you do not want to do is to bet against a team that is on a losing streak.
With 162 games being played by each team, even the best will have losing streaks.
It is very tempting to bet on a team BECAUSE THEY ARE DUE FOR A WIN. Don't do this. It's like getting in front of a run away freight train.
June will be over in just three days. We have two plays today and a strong probabiliy that we will hit our expected average of 8-10 units a month.
I'm not sure where we will end up, but I know we will have a winning month. Even if we are only up 5 units, that would mean that $100 bettors will still be up $500 for June.
I charge $49.00 per month for my advisory service. You will receive plays daily via e-mail and I provide full phone and e-mail support. I take payments through PayPal.
Let me know if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Friday, June 24, 2011
One Run Games
I am amazed and excited by how many one run games we are seeing this year in baseball. All of my clients are up this month which is good. With just one more week left in June, we are pushing for a strong finish. We want to get to at least eight units for the month. That would give a good, solid performance in June.
One stat that works in our favor is the parity among teams. It is true that on any given day, a team can win regardless of who is pitching against them. If we carefully pick our underdog plays we should do extremely well during the dog days of summer.
It does not matter if you win by one run or ten runs. A win is a win. Look for a strong financial return the rest of baseball season.
George
703-217-0805
One stat that works in our favor is the parity among teams. It is true that on any given day, a team can win regardless of who is pitching against them. If we carefully pick our underdog plays we should do extremely well during the dog days of summer.
It does not matter if you win by one run or ten runs. A win is a win. Look for a strong financial return the rest of baseball season.
George
703-217-0805
Thursday, June 23, 2011
Heartbreak Hotel
Good Afternoon,
Heartbreak Hotel is one of my favorite Elvis songs, and it sure did apply today.
We bet on the Minnesota Twins to be leading after five innings. We lost 1-0 as Tim Lincecum is pitching a masterpeice for the San Francisco Giants. Through five innings, he has already stuck out nine players.
As I mentioned in today's writeup, he is capable of doing that at any time. Betting on Minnesota +160 was still a good bet.
I take a loss in stride and move on, and that is exactly what I will do here. I admit that I really wanted this game so that my clients and I could reach at least eight units of profit this month. We can still easily do that if I have a strong finish.
Eight to ten units per month is what I consider to be a solid, but not great month. Right now, clients are still in the plus column which is good.
There is nothing magical about having a great month, by the way. The only difference between an average and a great month is that we end up winning a lot of these one run games. That cannot be predicted. If I keep handicapping the way I do, then that will happen.
Heartbreak Hotel is one of my favorite Elvis songs, and it sure did apply today.
We bet on the Minnesota Twins to be leading after five innings. We lost 1-0 as Tim Lincecum is pitching a masterpeice for the San Francisco Giants. Through five innings, he has already stuck out nine players.
As I mentioned in today's writeup, he is capable of doing that at any time. Betting on Minnesota +160 was still a good bet.
I take a loss in stride and move on, and that is exactly what I will do here. I admit that I really wanted this game so that my clients and I could reach at least eight units of profit this month. We can still easily do that if I have a strong finish.
Eight to ten units per month is what I consider to be a solid, but not great month. Right now, clients are still in the plus column which is good.
There is nothing magical about having a great month, by the way. The only difference between an average and a great month is that we end up winning a lot of these one run games. That cannot be predicted. If I keep handicapping the way I do, then that will happen.
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Random Thoughts
1. Make sure when you place a bet that you choose the first five innings or first half option. Many clients, including myself, have mistakenly placed bets on the whole game.
2. I do not have an affiliation with any sports book. However, the three sports books that I recommend 5Dimes, The Greek, and Bet Jamaica are financially strong and offer the type of bets we need. Finding the 1st five inning lines is different at each of the sports books. Just contact me if you can't find them.
3. Most sports books offer a casino option. STAY AWAY.
4. All books offer sign up or reload bonuses. That is found money. You do not want to choose the reduced juice option. Reduced juice is great, but it does not apply to the way we bet. Choose one of the other options.
5. We will definitely be betting on hockey when the season starts. I have spent a lot of time on hockey and there is a lot of money to be made. The way we bet actually favors low scoring games.
Hockey plays right into our approach. I am a close friend with one of the best hockey handicappers out of Canada. Like me, he only bets on underdogs. He was up 46.37 units last season. The beauty is you can make money even if you have no interest in hockey. I would bet on rubber duck racing if I knew that I could make a profit.
6. You may see occasional bets on WNBA (women's pro basketball) in the near future.
There used to be a handful of teams that dominate every season. That has changed. There is much more parity in the league and that favors the way we bet.
7. I make every single bet that I recommend, so when you win or lose, we are in this thing together.
I could go on and on, but it is lunch time and I am craving Chinese.
Contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
2. I do not have an affiliation with any sports book. However, the three sports books that I recommend 5Dimes, The Greek, and Bet Jamaica are financially strong and offer the type of bets we need. Finding the 1st five inning lines is different at each of the sports books. Just contact me if you can't find them.
3. Most sports books offer a casino option. STAY AWAY.
4. All books offer sign up or reload bonuses. That is found money. You do not want to choose the reduced juice option. Reduced juice is great, but it does not apply to the way we bet. Choose one of the other options.
5. We will definitely be betting on hockey when the season starts. I have spent a lot of time on hockey and there is a lot of money to be made. The way we bet actually favors low scoring games.
Hockey plays right into our approach. I am a close friend with one of the best hockey handicappers out of Canada. Like me, he only bets on underdogs. He was up 46.37 units last season. The beauty is you can make money even if you have no interest in hockey. I would bet on rubber duck racing if I knew that I could make a profit.
6. You may see occasional bets on WNBA (women's pro basketball) in the near future.
There used to be a handful of teams that dominate every season. That has changed. There is much more parity in the league and that favors the way we bet.
7. I make every single bet that I recommend, so when you win or lose, we are in this thing together.
I could go on and on, but it is lunch time and I am craving Chinese.
Contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
What is Your Return if We are up Eight Units in June
Good Morning,
Special note. Some of you may have received spam from my e-mail address yesterday. I was hacked. I apologize and believe the problem has been resolved.
Yesterday we lost the Houston bet, but won the Tampa Bay bet so $100 bettors were up $30 on the day. As you know, our goal is to average 8-10 units per month.
By playing only the first five inning money line underdogs if we win 50% of our games, we make a very nice return.
Earier this month we were up over seven units. We had a bit of a losing streak and currently we stand at 17W-17L +4.58 units, with plenty of month left. The good news is that we are making money.
Here is an example of what your return would be if we end up with just plus eight units in June. If you bet 4% of your bankroll and have $2,500 in your account you would be betting $100 dollars on each play. If we are up eight units, you would make $800 for the month. If you divide $800 by $2,500 that would give you a 32% return for the month.
It's hard to find that potential in other investments. We won't win 8-10 units every month, but when we tally up the big months, average months and losing months we will come in with a great return for the year.
Special note. Some of you may have received spam from my e-mail address yesterday. I was hacked. I apologize and believe the problem has been resolved.
Yesterday we lost the Houston bet, but won the Tampa Bay bet so $100 bettors were up $30 on the day. As you know, our goal is to average 8-10 units per month.
By playing only the first five inning money line underdogs if we win 50% of our games, we make a very nice return.
Earier this month we were up over seven units. We had a bit of a losing streak and currently we stand at 17W-17L +4.58 units, with plenty of month left. The good news is that we are making money.
Here is an example of what your return would be if we end up with just plus eight units in June. If you bet 4% of your bankroll and have $2,500 in your account you would be betting $100 dollars on each play. If we are up eight units, you would make $800 for the month. If you divide $800 by $2,500 that would give you a 32% return for the month.
It's hard to find that potential in other investments. We won't win 8-10 units every month, but when we tally up the big months, average months and losing months we will come in with a great return for the year.
Monday, June 20, 2011
Why We have to Bet on the Houston Astros Tonight
Good Morning,
Sometimes the line dictates a play for us. Texas is a better team than Houston and there are numerous reasons why they might beat Houston tonight.
One thing I am sure of is that Texas does not warrant being such a big favorite against their in state rival. The takeback on Houston is a large +160 for the first five innings. Houston has been playing fairly well in recent games and they could easily be ahead after five innings. The risk/reward is in our favor. Win or lose, this is a quality bet.
Baseball is a streaky venture. You never really know who is going to show up on the mound. If you look at virtually every pitcher you will see gems and you will see bad outings. That is why leading after 5 innings is all we care about and why we focus on the underdogs.
Last night was a perfect example of what can happen. We had two plays. We played Toronto vs Cincy. Cincy won the game 2-1, but Toronto was ahead 1-0, so we won that bet. In our other play, we had Houston over the LA Dodgers. the score after five innings was 0-0 so that was a push(tie). LA Dodgers went on to win 1-0.
The key as is that you must make all the plays and flat bet the same amount on each game. The fact that we only bet underdogs, over time, will make us winners.
Sometimes the line dictates a play for us. Texas is a better team than Houston and there are numerous reasons why they might beat Houston tonight.
One thing I am sure of is that Texas does not warrant being such a big favorite against their in state rival. The takeback on Houston is a large +160 for the first five innings. Houston has been playing fairly well in recent games and they could easily be ahead after five innings. The risk/reward is in our favor. Win or lose, this is a quality bet.
Baseball is a streaky venture. You never really know who is going to show up on the mound. If you look at virtually every pitcher you will see gems and you will see bad outings. That is why leading after 5 innings is all we care about and why we focus on the underdogs.
Last night was a perfect example of what can happen. We had two plays. We played Toronto vs Cincy. Cincy won the game 2-1, but Toronto was ahead 1-0, so we won that bet. In our other play, we had Houston over the LA Dodgers. the score after five innings was 0-0 so that was a push(tie). LA Dodgers went on to win 1-0.
The key as is that you must make all the plays and flat bet the same amount on each game. The fact that we only bet underdogs, over time, will make us winners.
Wednesday, June 15, 2011
Mid-Month Update
Good Morning,
We are at the half point in the month and here is where we stand:
(13W-11L +5.69 units ) A unit is the amount you bet, so for example a $100 bettor would be up $569.00 so far this month
Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month. Our monthly results will vary from great months to losing months, so flat betting the same amount on each play is very important.
The baseball lines have been very tight this year. By that I mean we are not seeing many plays with large paybacks. Scoring is down and this has definitely been a year where we are seeing a lot of quality pitching.
I prefer large paybacks where I feel the underdog has a good chance to be ahead after five innings. We are still finding good value out there and we are picking our spots carefully. Remember, we are long term sports investors.
If you have not yet subscribed, I charge $49.00 per month to have plays sent to you by e-mail daily. My service includes full e-mail and phone support. Contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
We are at the half point in the month and here is where we stand:
(13W-11L +5.69 units ) A unit is the amount you bet, so for example a $100 bettor would be up $569.00 so far this month
Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month. Our monthly results will vary from great months to losing months, so flat betting the same amount on each play is very important.
The baseball lines have been very tight this year. By that I mean we are not seeing many plays with large paybacks. Scoring is down and this has definitely been a year where we are seeing a lot of quality pitching.
I prefer large paybacks where I feel the underdog has a good chance to be ahead after five innings. We are still finding good value out there and we are picking our spots carefully. Remember, we are long term sports investors.
If you have not yet subscribed, I charge $49.00 per month to have plays sent to you by e-mail daily. My service includes full e-mail and phone support. Contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
How to Average 8-10 units per month
Good Morning,
As many of you know, our goal is to average 8-10 units per month (a unit is the amount you bet). So if are up 10 units for June, $100 bettors will make $1,000. A $20.00 bettor will make $200.
Like the stock market, the road to profits is not a straight line. We will have great months, average months and losing months. If you make all of the plays we release, you will make money.
We are in the prime of Baseball season. Many are calling this the year of the pitcher, and I agree. Scoring is down in MLB, and that actually benefits us based on the way we bet.
Here are recent results, betting primarily on baseball.
April +17.17 units
May - 5.03 units
June + 4.90 units through June 7th.
Subscribers should make all of the plays. We never know when we will have a
+20 unit month, but it is coming. Accept the tough months and enjoy the big months, In the end we will always make money
If you have not yet subscibed, feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail if you have any questions. Even if you are not into baseball, follow my plays. One thing we all like is to make money!
Regards
George Kallajxhi
703-217-0805
As many of you know, our goal is to average 8-10 units per month (a unit is the amount you bet). So if are up 10 units for June, $100 bettors will make $1,000. A $20.00 bettor will make $200.
Like the stock market, the road to profits is not a straight line. We will have great months, average months and losing months. If you make all of the plays we release, you will make money.
We are in the prime of Baseball season. Many are calling this the year of the pitcher, and I agree. Scoring is down in MLB, and that actually benefits us based on the way we bet.
Here are recent results, betting primarily on baseball.
April +17.17 units
May - 5.03 units
June + 4.90 units through June 7th.
Subscribers should make all of the plays. We never know when we will have a
+20 unit month, but it is coming. Accept the tough months and enjoy the big months, In the end we will always make money
If you have not yet subscibed, feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail if you have any questions. Even if you are not into baseball, follow my plays. One thing we all like is to make money!
Regards
George Kallajxhi
703-217-0805
Friday, June 3, 2011
Last Night's Crazy Game
In their first game against Dallas it took Miami about 13 minutes to get 9 points.
Last night they went on a 9-0 run with 2:56 remaining in the first half to tie the game. I already had Dallas marked as a first half win. We were looking at the possibility of a 3-0 night and the line for the first half was a heathy Dallas +150.
Then in the 4th quarter, Dallas comes back from a 15 point deficit to win the game. Go figure.
This kind of stuff happens all the time in sports. That is why wager the way we do. Sometimes we benefit and sometimes we don't. Expect more of the same wild swings for the remainer of the NBA finals. As a matter of fact expect the unexpected all the time.
Last night they went on a 9-0 run with 2:56 remaining in the first half to tie the game. I already had Dallas marked as a first half win. We were looking at the possibility of a 3-0 night and the line for the first half was a heathy Dallas +150.
Then in the 4th quarter, Dallas comes back from a 15 point deficit to win the game. Go figure.
This kind of stuff happens all the time in sports. That is why wager the way we do. Sometimes we benefit and sometimes we don't. Expect more of the same wild swings for the remainer of the NBA finals. As a matter of fact expect the unexpected all the time.
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Low Scoring Baseball Games + Hockey ?
Special thanks to client NS for suggesting we should focus on underdogs that give us a higher payback. 90% of the time you will see that our plays are offered up with a line of +110 to +190.
I agree with NS and prefer a larger payback. A plus +175 play covers a lot more territory than a +110 (ironic that two of our plays today are showing a return of
+115 or less). I will look closely at this factor.
Related to the above paragraph: Scoring and offensive numbers are lower in almost every category in MLB. This is the era of the pitcher. There are many young and talented arms out there.
Although we do not bet totals, it is one of the categories a look at when making a pick. (for new subscibers, totals means the number of runs scored in a game). You can bet the over or under on these games. Posted totals will normally be about one run lower in the National League than the American League because of the designated hitter in the American League.
It used to be rare to see a totals number of 6 1/2. Usually the cutoff has been at least seven runs in the National League. You only would see 6 1/2 if there was a
pitching duel expected. Now it is common to see o/u lines of 6 1/2 in the National League. This benefits us because of the way we bet. The The important factor is to realize is that what we do is long term sports investing. Our goal is to average
+8-10 units (the amount we bet).
As far as hockey is concerned, we are missing the boat. I have been working closely with a colleauge in Canada that does great in hockey. Verified by me, he was up 69.5 units this year. I know many of my cliets do not care about what I pick. Their concern is simply, are you going to win or lose today. I understand that completely.
I wanted everyone to know that we will be betting on hockey this year. Forget the playoffs, it is too late for that this year. Lower scoring games tend to favor are style of betting. I will be heading to Winnepeg some time this summer to get everything in place. I know certain clients will eat this up because they love action. I love action, too.
However, the goal here is to make money, and that will happen. Keep your nose the grindstorm and that will happen. What is a grindstone ????? I don't know, but I always wanted to put it in writing.
Cheers,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
.
I agree with NS and prefer a larger payback. A plus +175 play covers a lot more territory than a +110 (ironic that two of our plays today are showing a return of
+115 or less). I will look closely at this factor.
Related to the above paragraph: Scoring and offensive numbers are lower in almost every category in MLB. This is the era of the pitcher. There are many young and talented arms out there.
Although we do not bet totals, it is one of the categories a look at when making a pick. (for new subscibers, totals means the number of runs scored in a game). You can bet the over or under on these games. Posted totals will normally be about one run lower in the National League than the American League because of the designated hitter in the American League.
It used to be rare to see a totals number of 6 1/2. Usually the cutoff has been at least seven runs in the National League. You only would see 6 1/2 if there was a
pitching duel expected. Now it is common to see o/u lines of 6 1/2 in the National League. This benefits us because of the way we bet. The The important factor is to realize is that what we do is long term sports investing. Our goal is to average
+8-10 units (the amount we bet).
As far as hockey is concerned, we are missing the boat. I have been working closely with a colleauge in Canada that does great in hockey. Verified by me, he was up 69.5 units this year. I know many of my cliets do not care about what I pick. Their concern is simply, are you going to win or lose today. I understand that completely.
I wanted everyone to know that we will be betting on hockey this year. Forget the playoffs, it is too late for that this year. Lower scoring games tend to favor are style of betting. I will be heading to Winnepeg some time this summer to get everything in place. I know certain clients will eat this up because they love action. I love action, too.
However, the goal here is to make money, and that will happen. Keep your nose the grindstorm and that will happen. What is a grindstone ????? I don't know, but I always wanted to put it in writing.
Cheers,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
.
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