Why We Do Not Bet on Preseason Football

Good Morning,
Here are a couple of observations. The NFL is by far the most bet on sport in the USA. Pre-Season has started and sports bettors are very excited. All of the sudden, people are not paying as much attention to baseball.

This happens every year. When I looked at today's baseball games, the lines on the underdogs are coming in very high. This is great for us. We do not care if we are betting on a high profile game or on a game that is under the radar. Our goal is to make money.
You will see a good number of bets in baseball that might make you cringe. If you are a subscriber, play them.

There are handicappers that do bet on pre-seasonfootball games, but I am not one of them. The problem I have is that preseason is an audition for a spot on the team. Lst night I watched the Redskin-Steeler game. I lost count, but there were six or seven different quarterbacks that got in the game.
I might be leaving money on the table, but I know what works for me, and I will stick to first half money line baseball underdog plays and wait until the regular NFL season gets underway.
As a side note, if you like reading sports magazines, you can find whatever you are looking for at www.gamblersbookclub.com
I always get Phil Steele's College Review. I like to know what is going on with returning starters, etc.
But right now, we are focused on baseball! There is money waiting to be made

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

ps. contact me for subscription information

Never Pay Juice

Good Afternoon,
Sunday we lost our LA Angels play vs Detroit. We had two of the best pitchers in baseball going at it (Verlander and Weaver). The line for the first five innings was LA Angels +120. We lost 2-0 , but that was a quality play.

I mentioned Sunday that the game was a toss up and that it depended on who showed up. Verlander of Detroit SHOWED UP and came close to pitching a no hitter.

To say that we made a quality play, but lost, sounds like "The operation was a success, but the patient died."

If I were not betting to make money, I actually would have taken the under in that game, which was a winner. The problem is that the line was 6 1/2 - 130.

At -130 you would need to win almost 57% of your plays just to break even.
At -120 you would need to win about 55% and at -110 you would have to win about 53% of the your plays to break even. Basically when you pay juice, also known as commission, vig or vigorish, you are in the hole before the game even starts.

If you make it a policy to never pay juice, you will automatically put yourself in a favorable position to win over the long haul.

George
703-217-0805

The Gambling Gods Can Be Kind

Good Morning,
Last night we had a really wacky win. We bet Baltimore +110 to be leading Boston after five innings of play. Baltimore was the home team. With two outs in the bottom of the 5th, Boston was leading 6-2. I just figured that would be a loss.

Baltimore ended up scoring five runs and took the lead 7-6, which gave
us a win. Boston scored eight runs in the eight inning and won the game 15-10.

Sometimes we will have fortunate wins and sometimes we will have tough losses.
It comes with the territory. What is interesting is that we tend to remember the tough losses more than the fortunate wins.

I still clearly recall a two loss day about three years ago. I was leading two college basketball games as the first half was coming to a close. I lost both games on last second three point shots from midcourt. I couldn't believe it.

Reality, is that over the long haul the fortunate wins and tough loses even themselves out. That is why we only bet underdog money lines.

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

When Very Good Pitchers Face Elite Pitchers

Good Morning,
Today one of our plays is Atlanta vs. Philadelphia for the first five innings. The payback on Atlanta is a very nice +160 The last time that Roy Halladay pitched for Philadelphia I stayed out of his way. He is one of the best in the business.

What is different about tonight's game is that Atlanta has been playing very well lately and they are sending Brandon Beachy to the mound. Beachy is flying under the radar right now, and a lot of people do not know much about him. He is going to be very good.

An interesting thing happens when a good pitcher faces the best. Often a confident, good pitcher relishes the opportunity to go against the elite. It is not uncommon to see them elevate they game to a high level.

Of course, this does not always happen, but with a strong takeback of +160 we have an excellent chance of leading this game after five innings. Even if we are behind 10-0 after five, this is still a very good bet as our goal is to win 50% of our plays.

Winning Streaks and Losing Streaks

Good Evening,

If we are on a losing streak, which will happen, there is a strong tendency for players to skip some plays or wait until we are on a winning streak to start betting again . Bad idea.

On the other hand, if we are on a strong winning streak which will also happen, some clients will double their bet size, etc. Another bad idea.

Bob McCune, my mentor, taught me that betting on sports, especially
Baseball (162 games per year)is a grind filled with ups and downs. Never get too high or too low based on your results.

Sports bettng is exciting. However, making money is even more exciting. I highly recommend that you stay with all of the plays that I recommend and flat bet each one with the same amount of money regardless if we are doing great or if we are in a funk.

We never really know if we are going to have a bad month or if we are going to hit a home run. In the long run we will prevail and we will be profitable. Stay with it play by play.

Run Line Betting on Baseball

I just exchanged e-mails with a client about arbitrage betting. Arbitage betting is when you place a bet on both teams playing each other. You have to use two sportsbooks and the scenario has to be like this: If Boston is playing Cleveland and they are favored -150, if you find Cleveland at another sportsbook at +155 you can bet both sides and you can't lose. Very rarely happens anymore with American sports.

I do want to address a similar concept that involves betting both sides of a baseball game. We will use today's Texas vs Houston game as an example. Earlier today, Texas was -120 and Houston was +110. However, if you bet the runline, Texas was -1 1/2 +150. This means that if you bet Texas on the runline and they win by two or more runs you would bet $100 to win $150. You basically have taken a favorite and turned them into an underdog. Now, if you take this bet one step further and bet $100 on Houston +110 the only way you can lose if if Texas only wins by one run.

This is an extremely attractive bet and a lot of people bet runline favorites. The problem is that you will lose money over the long haul.

When I first learned this approach I thought I discovered the Holt Grail of Baseball Betting, but I didn't. If Texas were to beat Houston by one run you would actually lose both sides of the bet.

You might find a spot here or there where making a runline bet might make sense, but you will lose if you bet them long term. As an exercise, you might pick 3-4 of the top teams and watch what happens over a month's time if you played them on the runline. The problem is there are so many games where the favorite wins by only one run. As I mentioned, if you lose, you lose both bets. Stay away from runlines unless you are using fun money. Trust me, been there done that.

Focus on making money long-term.

Doing a Parlay on Two Big Baseball Favorites

Good Afternoon,

I have an astute client that asked me if betting the two biggest baseball favorites in a parlay would be profitable long term.

With a two team parlay, both teams must win in order for you to win the bet. Baseball parlays work different than football or basketball pointspread parlays.

All baseball parlays are going to be on the money line. If you combine
two -200 baseball games in a parlay and you win them both you would risk $100 to win $100 (appoximately).

This is a very tempting bet, especially when you have two great pitchers going against two mediocre teams. If you win a couple of these in a row you will think that you have unlocked the key to winning during baseball season.

If things were that easy we could all make a bunch of money. Just think how nice it would be to get up each morning and bet the two highest baseball favorites in a parlay and be done with the day.

Years ago when I first came across this method of betting, I was very excited.

Unfortunately over the long term this approach will not make you money. I won't get into all of the statistical and mathematical reasons why.

What I will tell you is that the best teams will win about 60% of their games and the worse teams will win about 40% of their games. That is too tight of a difference to make any real money.

You might want to paper trade this type of bet in July to see what kind of results you get. You might have a winning month, but when you look at the big picture, this is not the way to go.

Stick with my plays and you will make money.

A Lesson from Peter Lynch

Most people over 35 years of age will remember Peter Lynch. He managed the very successful Magellan Mutual Fund. One of his key approaches was deciding which companies he wanted to stay away from at all costs.

The same principle applies to sports investing. One of the key things I look at is which teams to bet against. I work backwards from that point to see if I have a possible play. There are, of course, a lot of factors to look at in baseball.

One thing you do not want to do is to bet against a team that is on a losing streak.
With 162 games being played by each team, even the best will have losing streaks.

It is very tempting to bet on a team BECAUSE THEY ARE DUE FOR A WIN. Don't do this. It's like getting in front of a run away freight train.

June will be over in just three days. We have two plays today and a strong probabiliy that we will hit our expected average of 8-10 units a month.

I'm not sure where we will end up, but I know we will have a winning month. Even if we are only up 5 units, that would mean that $100 bettors will still be up $500 for June.

I charge $49.00 per month for my advisory service. You will receive plays daily via e-mail and I provide full phone and e-mail support. I take payments through PayPal.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

One Run Games

I am amazed and excited by how many one run games we are seeing this year in baseball. All of my clients are up this month which is good. With just one more week left in June, we are pushing for a strong finish. We want to get to at least eight units for the month. That would give a good, solid performance in June.

One stat that works in our favor is the parity among teams. It is true that on any given day, a team can win regardless of who is pitching against them. If we carefully pick our underdog plays we should do extremely well during the dog days of summer.

It does not matter if you win by one run or ten runs. A win is a win. Look for a strong financial return the rest of baseball season.

George
703-217-0805

Heartbreak Hotel

Good Afternoon,
Heartbreak Hotel is one of my favorite Elvis songs, and it sure did apply today.
We bet on the Minnesota Twins to be leading after five innings. We lost 1-0 as Tim Lincecum is pitching a masterpeice for the San Francisco Giants. Through five innings, he has already stuck out nine players.

As I mentioned in today's writeup, he is capable of doing that at any time. Betting on Minnesota +160 was still a good bet.

I take a loss in stride and move on, and that is exactly what I will do here. I admit that I really wanted this game so that my clients and I could reach at least eight units of profit this month. We can still easily do that if I have a strong finish.

Eight to ten units per month is what I consider to be a solid, but not great month. Right now, clients are still in the plus column which is good.

There is nothing magical about having a great month, by the way. The only difference between an average and a great month is that we end up winning a lot of these one run games. That cannot be predicted. If I keep handicapping the way I do, then that will happen.

Random Thoughts

1. Make sure when you place a bet that you choose the first five innings or first half option. Many clients, including myself, have mistakenly placed bets on the whole game.

2. I do not have an affiliation with any sports book. However, the three sports books that I recommend 5Dimes, The Greek, and Bet Jamaica are financially strong and offer the type of bets we need. Finding the 1st five inning lines is different at each of the sports books. Just contact me if you can't find them.

3. Most sports books offer a casino option. STAY AWAY.

4. All books offer sign up or reload bonuses. That is found money. You do not want to choose the reduced juice option. Reduced juice is great, but it does not apply to the way we bet. Choose one of the other options.

5. We will definitely be betting on hockey when the season starts. I have spent a lot of time on hockey and there is a lot of money to be made. The way we bet actually favors low scoring games.
Hockey plays right into our approach. I am a close friend with one of the best hockey handicappers out of Canada. Like me, he only bets on underdogs. He was up 46.37 units last season. The beauty is you can make money even if you have no interest in hockey. I would bet on rubber duck racing if I knew that I could make a profit.

6. You may see occasional bets on WNBA (women's pro basketball) in the near future.
There used to be a handful of teams that dominate every season. That has changed. There is much more parity in the league and that favors the way we bet.

7. I make every single bet that I recommend, so when you win or lose, we are in this thing together.

I could go on and on, but it is lunch time and I am craving Chinese.

Contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

What is Your Return if We are up Eight Units in June

Good Morning,

Special note. Some of you may have received spam from my e-mail address yesterday. I was hacked. I apologize and believe the problem has been resolved.

Yesterday we lost the Houston bet, but won the Tampa Bay bet so $100 bettors were up $30 on the day. As you know, our goal is to average 8-10 units per month.
By playing only the first five inning money line underdogs if we win 50% of our games, we make a very nice return.

Earier this month we were up over seven units. We had a bit of a losing streak and currently we stand at 17W-17L +4.58 units, with plenty of month left. The good news is that we are making money.

Here is an example of what your return would be if we end up with just plus eight units in June. If you bet 4% of your bankroll and have $2,500 in your account you would be betting $100 dollars on each play. If we are up eight units, you would make $800 for the month. If you divide $800 by $2,500 that would give you a 32% return for the month.

It's hard to find that potential in other investments. We won't win 8-10 units every month, but when we tally up the big months, average months and losing months we will come in with a great return for the year.

Why We have to Bet on the Houston Astros Tonight

Good Morning,

Sometimes the line dictates a play for us. Texas is a better team than Houston and there are numerous reasons why they might beat Houston tonight.

One thing I am sure of is that Texas does not warrant being such a big favorite against their in state rival. The takeback on Houston is a large +160 for the first five innings. Houston has been playing fairly well in recent games and they could easily be ahead after five innings. The risk/reward is in our favor. Win or lose, this is a quality bet.

Baseball is a streaky venture. You never really know who is going to show up on the mound. If you look at virtually every pitcher you will see gems and you will see bad outings. That is why leading after 5 innings is all we care about and why we focus on the underdogs.

Last night was a perfect example of what can happen. We had two plays. We played Toronto vs Cincy. Cincy won the game 2-1, but Toronto was ahead 1-0, so we won that bet. In our other play, we had Houston over the LA Dodgers. the score after five innings was 0-0 so that was a push(tie). LA Dodgers went on to win 1-0.

The key as is that you must make all the plays and flat bet the same amount on each game. The fact that we only bet underdogs, over time, will make us winners.

Mid-Month Update

Good Morning,

We are at the half point in the month and here is where we stand:
(13W-11L +5.69 units ) A unit is the amount you bet, so for example a $100 bettor would be up $569.00 so far this month

Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month. Our monthly results will vary from great months to losing months, so flat betting the same amount on each play is very important.

The baseball lines have been very tight this year. By that I mean we are not seeing many plays with large paybacks. Scoring is down and this has definitely been a year where we are seeing a lot of quality pitching.

I prefer large paybacks where I feel the underdog has a good chance to be ahead after five innings. We are still finding good value out there and we are picking our spots carefully. Remember, we are long term sports investors.

If you have not yet subscribed, I charge $49.00 per month to have plays sent to you by e-mail daily. My service includes full e-mail and phone support. Contact me if you have any questions.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

How to Average 8-10 units per month

Good Morning,

As many of you know, our goal is to average 8-10 units per month (a unit is the amount you bet). So if are up 10 units for June, $100 bettors will make $1,000. A $20.00 bettor will make $200.

Like the stock market, the road to profits is not a straight line. We will have great months, average months and losing months. If you make all of the plays we release, you will make money.

We are in the prime of Baseball season. Many are calling this the year of the pitcher, and I agree. Scoring is down in MLB, and that actually benefits us based on the way we bet.

Here are recent results, betting primarily on baseball.

April +17.17 units
May - 5.03 units
June + 4.90 units through June 7th.

Subscribers should make all of the plays. We never know when we will have a
+20 unit month, but it is coming. Accept the tough months and enjoy the big months, In the end we will always make money

If you have not yet subscibed, feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail if you have any questions. Even if you are not into baseball, follow my plays. One thing we all like is to make money!

Regards

George Kallajxhi
703-217-0805

Last Night's Crazy Game

In their first game against Dallas it took Miami about 13 minutes to get 9 points.

Last night they went on a 9-0 run with 2:56 remaining in the first half to tie the game. I already had Dallas marked as a first half win. We were looking at the possibility of a 3-0 night and the line for the first half was a heathy Dallas +150.

Then in the 4th quarter, Dallas comes back from a 15 point deficit to win the game. Go figure.

This kind of stuff happens all the time in sports. That is why wager the way we do. Sometimes we benefit and sometimes we don't. Expect more of the same wild swings for the remainer of the NBA finals. As a matter of fact expect the unexpected all the time.

Low Scoring Baseball Games + Hockey ?

Special thanks to client NS for suggesting we should focus on underdogs that give us a higher payback. 90% of the time you will see that our plays are offered up with a line of +110 to +190.

I agree with NS and prefer a larger payback. A plus +175 play covers a lot more territory than a +110 (ironic that two of our plays today are showing a return of
+115 or less). I will look closely at this factor.

Related to the above paragraph: Scoring and offensive numbers are lower in almost every category in MLB. This is the era of the pitcher. There are many young and talented arms out there.

Although we do not bet totals, it is one of the categories a look at when making a pick. (for new subscibers, totals means the number of runs scored in a game). You can bet the over or under on these games. Posted totals will normally be about one run lower in the National League than the American League because of the designated hitter in the American League.

It used to be rare to see a totals number of 6 1/2. Usually the cutoff has been at least seven runs in the National League. You only would see 6 1/2 if there was a
pitching duel expected. Now it is common to see o/u lines of 6 1/2 in the National League. This benefits us because of the way we bet. The The important factor is to realize is that what we do is long term sports investing. Our goal is to average
+8-10 units (the amount we bet).

As far as hockey is concerned, we are missing the boat. I have been working closely with a colleauge in Canada that does great in hockey. Verified by me, he was up 69.5 units this year. I know many of my cliets do not care about what I pick. Their concern is simply, are you going to win or lose today. I understand that completely.

I wanted everyone to know that we will be betting on hockey this year. Forget the playoffs, it is too late for that this year. Lower scoring games tend to favor are style of betting. I will be heading to Winnepeg some time this summer to get everything in place. I know certain clients will eat this up because they love action. I love action, too.

However, the goal here is to make money, and that will happen. Keep your nose the grindstorm and that will happen. What is a grindstone ????? I don't know, but I always wanted to put it in writing.

Cheers,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

.

The Beach Ball Factor in Baseball

Is momentum important in baseball ?

Yes, it is very important. Each team will play 162 games. You will see that every team from the best to the worst is going to have winning streaks and losing streaks. Good hitting and good pitching are contagious.

Betting on an underdog that has been on a winning streak is one of my favorite plays. Bob McCune taught me to never get in the way of a winning or a losing streak in baseball. Regardless of the team, sometimes the hitters collectively will be seeing Beach Balls and sometimes they will be seeing BB guns come to the plate.

The best way to look at these opportunities is to focus of recent performance. What happened one or two months ago does not matter. What does matter, is what has a team done lately. Forget about statistics for the full season, what happened last week is much more important.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Baseball - Pitching Changes

Good Afternoon,

I want to clarify the difference in baseball between action bets and listed pitchers.
We always want to bet listed pitchers. Baseball lines are highly influenced by whom is pitching for both sides.

If you place a bet at most sports books they automatically default to listed pitchers. That means if the listed pitchers do not start the game and a replacement pitcher gets the call, your bet is null and void and you just get your money back. If you bet action, then regardless of a pitching change, your bet will stand.

This year in baseball we have only had two games with last minute pitching changes, so this is not a major concern, but it is something to be aware of.

Last year I went to a Washington Nationals game. The highly touted rookie Steven Strausburg was scheduled to pitch. Unfortunately during warm ups he was having stiffness in his shoulder, so they scratched him for the game and brought someone else in to start the game. Anyone that bet either side would have just gotten their money back because Strauburg did not start .

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

When Bad isn't that Bad

Good Morning,

Yesterday, we had four plays. Below is the e-mail that I sent to subscribers. It was definitely one of those days. We went 1W-3L. We lost all three of our day MLB games and won the NBA bet.

I do not like losing money, but tough days are part of what we do. I just want to point out that we were down only 1.25 units on the day. The reason is that we had Oklahoma City at +175. That is the advantage of betting money line underdogs. When we have a good day, our returns far out shines the bad days.

If you are a subsciber, just accept what happened yesterday, and move on. The nice thing about sports betting is that there is always tomorrow.

___________________________________________________________________________


Good Morning,
Today we have one NBA and three MLB plays. Please note the early starts:

1. (9:05) Oklahoma City vs Dallas - play OC +175

2. (12:05) Cleveland Indians vs Boston. play Cleveland +155

3. (1:05) Toronto Blue Jays vs NY Yankees. play Toronto +155

4. (2:05) Chicago White Sox vs Texas. play Chicago White Sox +1.31

All Plays are 1st half or 1st five inning money lines

Which Sport Book to Use

Good Afternoon,
I send all new clients to 5Dimes.com (I have no affiliation with them other than being a long term client). Most sports books will allow you to open an account without actually funding it. This gives you a chance to review the site.

Many sites have numerous betting options including online casinos. Personally, I would never place a casino bet using an online sports book.

We specialize in one type of bet so when you look at a sports book, avoid all the bells and whistles and find out if they allow 1st half and 1st five inning money line betting.


Also, find out about any potential bonus that is being offered. It might seem like a hassle when you open up an account at a sports book because they vary in the ways they accept money, and might require you to fax a copy of your license, etc. However, once you do it, it's done.

You should also know that off shore sports books do not report income to the IRS. Below is a website that evaluates over 750 sports books. I strongly recommend that you use a sports book that is rated A or A+ and that accepts our type of betting.

BetJamaica.com and theGreek.com are two other quality sites that accept our type of betting. If you have a large bankroll, you might want to open accounts at more that one sports book. This allows you to shop for the best price.

www.sportsbookreview.com

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

The Zig-Zag Theory

The Zig-Zag theory is one of the most popular handicapping techniques especially during the NBA playoffs. It is based on the simple theory: The team that wins a game is less likely to improve than the one that just lost. The loser comes out more hungry because every play off game is a must win situation.

I look at the Zig-Zag theory when I handicap the NBA playoffs and to some degree the MLB post season. There are several times that this approach is helpful, especially when you are dealing with strong defenses.

However, over time you can not place bets strickly using this theory. If it worked then technically every playoff series would go seven games, and we know that doesn't happen.

So look at the revenge factor, just don't hang your hat on it or use it exclusively.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Realistic Expectations

Good Morning,
The class I teach and my e-book are both titled How to Make $50,000 a Year Betting on Sports.

I am not a very good marketing guy, but someone that is recommended this title to attract attention. It certainly has done that. But, I want clients to be realistic about what they can make betting on sports.

Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month. If you work with me, that is very realistic, but you have to look at sports investing as a long term investment.

Over the course of a year, we will have huge months, average months and
losing months.


We never know when we will hit a big month or a losing month. That is why it is important to use proper money management (flat betting 3-4% of your of your bankroll) on each play.

We should hit at least 100 units( a unit is the amount you bet) every year. If you want to make $50,000 profit you would have to bet about $500.00 per play.

Many of my clients cannot bet $500 per game. I get calls and e-mails all the time from people that want to know how they can turn a bankroll of $500 into a bankroll of $50,000. You can't over night. If you take the amount you bet on each game and multiply it by 100, that will give you a more realistic picture of what you will make. For example, if you are a $100 bettor you should make $10,000 a year.

The good news is that as your bankroll increases, so does your amount that you bet on every game. Also, there is no easier way to make money than properly betting on sports.

We are not affected by unemployment rates or an uncertain economy. I know that if I compare my returns to what you can get in the options, futures, commodities and stock market, I will win hands down.

If you are a current client you know you can contact me by phone or e-mail at anytime. I try to answer questions as quickly as possible.

If you have not yet signed up and are sitting on the fence, now is a great time to get started. Just call or e-mail me and I will tell you why.

Regards.

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Flat Betting Every Game

Special Thanks to client Jeff A. for giving me the idea to do this post.

Tonight we have two plays. My client suggested we bet more on one game than the other. I totally understand and respect his opinion.

I flat bet every game even if I feel particularly strong about a play. In the long run that is the way to go. A gentleman that I tutored with, Bob McCune, used to say that "every pitcher has a no hitter in them." His point was that anything can happen in a particular game.

When I pick a team to win, I can easily point out reasons they could lose. It's the plus money that gives us a cushion. The last couple of days we had a couple of very close losses. That comes with the territory. You will find that over time we will have a lot of close winners , too.
Please stick to betting the same amount on every game even if it takes you out of your comfort zone.


Regards,

George

Yesterday's Recap

Good Morning,
Yesterday I sent out five plays to my clients and potential clients(which I do ocassionally). The end result was 1W-2L -.75 units. It looked like we were poised for a big day after winning the San Francisco game.

What was frustrating was that we were leading in everyone of our other games.

1. Oklahoma City which had a large payback of +170 was leading 27-20 after the first quarter. Dallas came out smoking in the 2nd quarter and out scored OC 35-21

2. Texas was up 3-0 and the White Sox got three runs in the bottom of the fifth to push the game

3. San Diego scored first, but they were behind 2-1 after five innings.

4. The Toronto game was postponed due to weather.

If anything, yesterday reinforced the importance of good money management
(flat betting 3-4% on every game) because we will have days like yesterday. We will also have days where the exact opposite happens and he hit a big 4-5 unit day.

Because we have the advantage of only betting money line underdogs that we feel have a 50% chance of being ahead after the first half or first five innings it gives us a nice cushion.

For existing clients we have 14 days to get to our average of 8-10 units per month. Very realistic.

For potential clients the special offer to try my service will end on May 20th.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Betting Overs and Unders on Baseball

Special thanks to client Andy R for giving me the idea to blog on this topic

Many clients are interested in betting on over and unders. If you are a beginner, all the sports we bet on include an over/under option. By example, in baseball if San Francisco is playing the LA Dodgers, the linesmakers will post a total of lets say 8 1/2.

Over/under bettors do not care who wins. They care about how many runs are scored in the game. Usually you will find in baseball that the totals are lower by about one run in the National League vs the American League because the National League does not have a designated hitter. In the National League, the pitcher must bat.

There are countless ways that people handicap totals. Some of them include pitching matchups, wind direction, altitude of a stadium, humidity, team stats and home umpires.

Looking at the home umpire is particularly interesting as umpires develop a reputation of having a tight strike zone or a forgiving stike zone. Unfortunately, for bettors this phenomenon does not hold steady over time. If you look at every umpire and see how they they have done over the last five years, you will not find one umpire that is consistently biased one way or the other.

Below is a link to a good article by Allen Moody that you can copy and paste. You might want to subscribe to his newsletter. It is free and informative.

I am not a very good totals handicapper. A fews years ago, I did a lot of over/under betting, but I did not get consistent results, so I moved away from that arena. I am sure that there are professionals that focus on totals, but I have never found one that is consistently profitable over time.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/baseballbetting/a/umpires.htm

Recent Performance vs Year Long Stats

Good Evening,
Many very smart people, including baseball managers, have tried to analyze baseball games through the use of Sabermetrics, which in a nutshell is an intense crunching of past performance numbers to predict the outcome of future games. It does have merit, and I use that approach to some degree when I handicap games.

Reality is that the result of a particular game is totally random. Anything can happen. When you look at excellent hitters, for example, that have a batting average of over .300 you will see that over the course of a season they will have streaks and slumps. They are not going to consistently get three hits out of every ten at bats. It just doesn't happen that way.

What is really more important is "What have you done lately" That is a much better measure of how a player will do in their next game. The emotional analysis of a game is much more important to me than a team's year long record. I don't care if a pitcher is 2W-7L on the year. I care about his recent performance. Also, winning and losing are contagious, as are team pitching and team hitting. You will almost never see me bet on a team that has lost it's last three games. I simply do not adhere to the popular notion that a team "Is Due". Play close attention to momentum and recent performance.

When you do that and at the same time focus on money line underdogs you will be a long term winner.

George
703-217-0805

Does Defense Matter in Baseball ?

Absolutely!

If you look at stats for football and basketball you can easily find how teams are doing defensively. However, defense is probably the most overlooked significant stat in baseball.

Very few sports bettors look at how a MLB team is doing defensively. The reason is that baseball is a lower scoring game than football and basketball. The effects of a bad defense are easy to overlook in baseball. But if you look at every one run game in Baseball, most times you will find that the losing team had more errors than the winning team.

Last year, if you bet every game on the worse three teams defensively you would have been down 45-50 units.

This is not the holy grail that will make you a winner. But it is something you should look at when picking a play.

I always look at this stat when I am handicapping. It is one of many factors that I use to handicap games, and sometimes it will determine whether or not to move forward.

For my clients, I do this as part of my service. If you see me make a play, you can be sure that I looked at defense vs defense.

If you are not yet a client, and have questions feel free to contact me.

Regards,


George K
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Handicapping Pitchers

Good Afternoon,
In April we ended up +17.17 units and through May 12th we are up almost
3 units. Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month (a unit is the amount you bet). This is a perfect scenario for us to have another excellent month as we have over 1/2 of May to reach our goals.

We look at a lot of factors when making a play. When you compare pitchers for example, many people just compare ERA's. That is worthless.

The important things to look at are:

1. WHIP ( walks + hits divided by innings pitched.) The lower the number the better.

2. The ratio of a pitcher's ground balls outs vs fly ball outs. This can be
significant. We like pitchers that keep the ball on the ground
especially since we focus on the first five innings.

3. Recent performance is important, W/L record for the season is not. What a pitcher
did in the beginning of April has no reflection on on his next start in May or
June.

4. A pitchers performance against the team they are facing. It is true that some
pitchers simply do well when pitching in a ballpark that they like and some
simply do not do well in certain ballparks. I remember Michael Jordan saying
that he disliked playing in Detroit (you would not know that from looking at
his stats) because he felt their rims were too tight and not forgiving.

With all that being said, there are a lot of other factors to look at. Remember that our goal is to win 50% of our games (first five inning underdogs). Anything can happen. Every starting pitcher at the MLB level has a no-hitter in them.

Historically, when you look at no-hitters, at least half of them were acheived by one game wonders.

The above factors are just some of the things to look at. When handicapping sometimes it looks like a game has all the stars lined up for a win.

It does not work that way. There are no guarantees. We just put ourselves in a position where we feel that our team has a 50% chance to be ahead after five innings.

Over time, we will make money. We will experience winning and losing streaks, lucky wins and tough beats.

The fact that we only play money line underdogs helps to cushion the unexpected.

Please contact me if you have not yet received my free e-book or if you would like to more about how my my advisory service.

Regards,

George K
703-217-0805
gak555 @yahoo.com

Does Your Last Tough Loss Match This ?

Good Afternoon,

I did not have a bet on Texas vs Oakland. However, after three and 1/2 innings, Texas was up 7-0. The game was then postponed due to weather.


In order for a game to be officially on the books it has to go a minimum of 5 innings or 4 1/2 innings if the home team is leading. Texas bettors were SOL, and Oakland bettors were very happy.

This is the kind of craziness that comes with the sports betting arena. Whether you work with me or someone else, stay disciplined with your picks and money management. Frustrating things will happen when you bet for a living, but over the long haul they will average out if you have a good handicapper or system

Why I Played Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzles Today

Good Afternoon,
As many of you know, I do not predict games. I look for favorable opportunities to be leading at halftime. Today I bet the first half money line for Memphis at +170 and Boston +185 This is a perfect setup for the way I bet.

There are four excellent teams and no one has any idea who will bring it on tonight. Will Paul Pierce be on fire ? Will Kevin Durant score 40 points and have the game of his life ? We don't know. We can easily go 0W-2L, 1W-1L or 2W-0L.

Proper Sports investing is a long term process. not a one night stand. Be careful of touts that give out 4-5 star plays, or the lock of the week. There is no such thing. If you follow my money management system, which is to flat bet every game 3-4% of your bankroll you will end up being a winner.

Even if we go 0W-2L tonight, it would not effect what I do. The beauty of sports betting is that there is always tomorrow.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Jumping Lines

Good Afternoon,
I noticed that the lines of our three plays today, and other games are jumping all over the place. This is not surprising. The public wants action. and with just a few basketball games remaining, baseball is the outlet. Since baseball is not as liquid as football and basketball, line fluctuations are to be expected, especially during the first two months of the season. At that point things will settle down.

We do not have a crystal ball to predict which lines will move towards or against our favor. One of our play today was +117 for the first five innings and it moved down to +107.

Sometimes line movements go in our favor, and sometimes they go agsinst us. What you shoud do is make the play regardless of line movements, even if the line drops below +110 which is normally our bottom acceptable bet.

Regard,

George
703-217-0805

Sports Books are on Vacation

Good Morning,
I do not mean the title of this blog to be taken literally. But once Football and Basketball(almost) are done, there is a lot less money bet on baseball. Some sports books lay people off until football starts again. Sports bettors simply do not bet as much on Baseball as the do the other sports.

That is great for us, because there are so many baseball games. Each team plays 162 games a year and the beauty is that even the best teams will lose 35-40% of their games. You can make a lot of money betting on baseball.

A win is a win. As long as you stick to your money management, you will make just as much money on games like the KC Royals vs the Baltimore Orioles as you would in a high profile football game that everyone is watching on TV.

I had one client that told me to contact him when Football season starts again because he is not into Baseball. I think he is making a big mistake. Our goal here is that we are sports investors looking to make a profit. Even if you hate baseball, you should make my recommended plays if your main goal is making money.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com.

Money Management

Thanks to client TG for this blog

Good Afternoon,

A unit is the amount that you bet. If you are a $20 bettor, $20 is your unit. If you are a $500 bettor, $500 is your unit.

If you increase your bankroll, you should increase your unit size (some people use
3% and others 4% of their bankroll. If you are betting 4% per game and your bankroll increases from $1,000 to $1,300 you should adjust your bankroll to reflect 4% of $1,300, which would be $52


However, if your bankroll decreases from $1,300 to $1,200 you do not lower your unit size . Keep the unit size at $52 until we rebound.


Regards,

George
703-217-0805

When is the Best Time to Place a Bet

Good Afternoon,
I just returned e-mailed to a sharp client who knows that an extra 5 or 10 points on a line can make the difference in profitability over the long run.

The line changes on 1st half and 1st five innings can move rapidly since there is not as much liquidity as there is it betting the full game.

I placed my two bets shortly after sending them out this morning. I used 5Dimes for both bets.

I got Atlanta Hawks at +115 and Minnesota at +125.

I just re-checked the lines and now they have the Atlanta Hawks at +105 (good for us) and Minnesota at +145 (bad for us).

The key question is "When is the best time to place a bet" Technically if you hover over the line changes you will find lines that are better or worse than the ones I send out.

Personally, I have no interest in doing that. Once I decide on a play, I set it and forget it. It really does come out in the wash because half the time I end up getting a better line by waiting, and half the time waiting can end up giving me a worse line.

That is a small price to pay when you are also concerned about your quality of life.

In my e-book I encourage shopping different books to get the best possible line. This can be very time consuming, especially if you are working full time. Reality, is if you set it and forget it, you will save yourself a lot of stress hovering over a computer.

There are a lot of professional bettors that will disagree with me and I understand that. But over time, you are probably better off just making the plays when you get them.

George

When to Bet Against the Best Pitchers

As a rule, I shy away from betting against the best pitchers in baseball
(i.e. Roy Halliday, Josh Johnson, CC Sabathia, Josh Johnson, etc.) There are just too many other opportunities out there. However, there is good money to be made if you carefully pick your spots when your team is going against a top notch guy. I have made plenty of money going against the Randy Johnsons and Roger Clemens of the world.

The best pitchers are always going to command a premium price and the lines on them is usually overinflated because of public opinion. That is good for us.

With that being said, if an opposing team is in good form and they have a good, not great pitcher, going for them, it is always woth a second look.

When a good pitcher is going against a great pitcher you will often see the good pitcher rise to the occasion and pitch a great game. It's a combination of competiveness, adrenaline and the challenge of going against a stud pitcher.

When I bet against a great pitcher there is a reason to do so. We will lose some and win some, but if we can be leading a game after 5 innings, it is worth the risk.


If you see me going against a great pitcher, MAKE THE PLAY.

Betting the First Five innings

I am not the author of the following article. Credit should be given to Dave Carey.

The average length of a Major League Baseball game is more than three hours.

That’s a long time to sit around and wait as players chew double bubble, pick at their cleats and play with their batting gloves. It’s even more aggravating when you have big money on one of these matchups and shaky relievers, overweight outfielders and boneheaded managers bungle the end of what looked like an assured win.

Those factors and more are the exact reasons sharps are flocking to fatten their bankrolls much faster by playing five-inning lines.

“The best part is that you do not lose value on either the favorite or the underdog, depending on which you want to bet,” Covers Expert Matt Fargo said. “For example, the highest moneyline (on Friday was) Boston -195 with Daisuke Matsuzaka. The five-run line is -200 so there is not a big adjustment.”

But value is just the tip of the iceberg.

For starters, five-inning lines can be played the same way you bet a full MLB game – either with a runline or a moneyline. Nearly all runlines are simply plus or minus half runs, while most moneylines remain similar to those of full nine-inning contests. Totals also are adjusted accordingly. Typically, if a total is around nine runs for a full game, it will be around five for a five-inning wager.

Perhaps what many smart bettors like the most, however, is the fact that five-inning lines take bullpens out of the equation.

As bad as a team like the Astros have been, blowing seven saves hasn’t helped them much. And then there are the pens of the Orioles, Angels, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mets and Dodgers. Each of those relief units has allowed at least 10 home runs already.

“The biggest reason to get involved with first-half lines or five-inning lines for MLB is the bullpen issue,” Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach said. “Let's say I have found a matchup where Team A is crushing the ball, has a solid starter on the mound, but has a weak bullpen. Let's say that team is facing Team B, who is struggling at the plate, has a weak starter on the mound, but has a stellar bullpen. I may not trust Team A to win the full game because the bullpen mismatch could come into play. However, playing the five-inning line takes the bullpen mismatch out of the equation and provides great value.”

And just like this season, there have been several surprising teams making big bucks for those bettors who have been smart enough to tail them.

The American League West is where five-inning bettors have made the most green playing the moneyline this season. The Angels are an absurd 14-7-3, followed by the hot Rangers at 13-6-4 and the solid Athletics at 11-8-5. And then there are the Mariners. Anyone smart enough to fade the light-hitting doormats after last season have been cashing tickets left and right as the losers from the Pacific Northwest are a wretched 6-16-2.

The Angels and Athletics have been doing it with defense and pitching, posting an ERA of just 1.88 and 1.46 during their early runs. The Rangers, meantime, have done it with their bats, jumping out to early leads as they are posting an average of 3.35 runs over that span. And then at the bottom of the standings are the Mariners, who can’t do anything well. The team is crossing home plate an average of just 1.54 times in the first five innings while allowing an average of 2.83 runs in those games.

But there is plenty of value found in other divisions around the league.

On the road, the Marlins are just 1-6-1 over the first five innings, giving up an average of 3.25 runs in those outings. And not to pile on, but the Mariners are a wretched 1-10 in similar contests. In home games, the surprising Royals are off to a hot start at 9-3-2 with five-inning lines. Meantime, the Cubs couldn’t be much colder, going 4-8-2 in the first half of their first 14 games at Wrigley Field.

April Results

Good Morning,
We had a very strong April. Our final record was 30W-25L, and we were up 17.17 units, That comes out to 54,5 % winners on our money line plays. If we can average 8-10 units per month over time, we will make a lot of money.

Here are a couple of observations that I made on the part of my clients:
1. One client felt really good about one of my plays and dumped 25% of his total
bankroll on that one play. The play was a winner so he made a chunk of change.
I'm glad that he won, but he made one of the fatal mistakes in sportsbetting.
He did not manage his money properly by betting just 3-4%, so it was a bad
decision

2. Some players are still cherry picking my plays and betting just on the ones they
feel good about. Not good. I can't predict winners, I can only focus on
probabilities.
Yesterday for example, we had a losing day. We kept losses to a minimum because
we picked up +1.72 units in our Seattle vs. Boston games.

The point is that will have some fortunate wins and some heartbreaking loses,
but you have to make all of the plays. Wins and loses are random. You can
expect hot streaks and cold streaks. There will be great winning streaks and
there will be those days when we go 0W-3L. Please stick to proper money
mangement and we will do fine over time.

With all that being said, I feel great about May. It is usually a very
strong month.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Totals in Baseball

Good Afternoon,

One of the things I look at when handicapping is what is the total for game. The total is set by the bookmakers to determine how many runs will be scored in a game.

They look for a number that ideally would split the action so that 1/2 of the bettors are betting under and 1/2 are betting over.

Many people bet on totals because it does not matter who wins. The only goal is how many runs are scored in a game.

The reason I do not bet totals is that you usually end up paying juice/commission. I never want to bet on a game when the cards are stacked against me. I want PLUS money everytime. I do not want to put myself in a position where I have to win more than 50% of my games to break even

If you look at my record you will see that in baseball, about 60% of my bets are made on the National League, because they do not have the designated hitter like the American League. Typically you will find National League totals to be about one run lower than the American League.

Generally speaking, lower scoring games in baseball give us a slight advantage to be ahead after five innings. This is just one of many factors that need to be looked at, but it is something you want to be aware of.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805

HANDICAP TIP - NUMBER 2

Good Afternoon.
Handicapping games for the 1st five innings or for the first half is not easy. If it was, we would all be millionares. We cannot guarantee winners and if you run across a handicapper that gives you guarantees, etc. your best bet is to just stay away.
There is a lot of money to be made if you follow my picks. The important thing is to follow the money management rules that I share with you.

The three things that hurt my clients the most are:

1. Bettng too much on one game.
2. Doubling their bets to mske up for a losing day (chasing)
3. Not understanding the importance of the long term picture. Sports betting is a
marathon, not a sprint. If you do things the right way, you will be successful.
Evey professional gambler will have great months, average months and losing
months. It comes with the territory.

Stick religiously to my plays, and you will make money. Do not avoid a play because it does not look good to you. I am trained to look for opportunities that puts sports investors in a position to be ahead after the 1st 5 innings and after the 1st half (football and Basketball).

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com









0.

Since we only bet money line underdogs, you a

Handicapping Tip

Good Afternoon,
One of several things I look at when I handicap is what goes on between games. For example, on 04/19 the Boston Celtics beat the Knicks 96-93. It was a nice win for the Celtics, but Boston Coach Doc Rivers was not at all happy.

He made his team watch their performance in that game four times in a row. He pointed out every mistake he could find and called out to his players to step up, correct the errors and to play Celtic basketball, and this was after a win. That was one of the reasons I took Boston in the next game which they won 113-96.

My goal is to win 50% of my plays-always betting on moneyline underdogs. There is no magic formula to picking winners. If I win 50% of my plays my clients and I will make a lot of money since we are always getting plus money on our winners.

This month has been great, and we are up +19.05 units. This will not happen every month. However, over time if you discipline yourself to follow my plays you will be a winner.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

It Happens Every Year

Good Afternoon,

Prior to baseball season there are countless number of newspapers, magazines and professional analysts that try to predict which teams will be successful and which team will not. For example, who would have predicted the following through Wednesday April 20th.

1. C1eveland 13W-5L
2. Colorado 13W-5L
3. Boston 6W-11L
4. Minnesota 6W-12L
5. NY Mets 5W-13L

Probably very few people. That is why we do not predict winners, we look for probabilities. Forget the last 3 or 4 years of a team's record....doesn't mean a thing. Do not force plays because a team is due to win. Let the plays come to you based on what's happening now. This is similar to trend analysis in the stock market

The good news is that we can bail out quickly if things go against our desired results. As long as we average 8-10 units per month we make a lot of money.

Please note, the special I offered for $49.00 to give you all the plays through May 31st is over as of Midnight last night. I am back to charging $49.00 for 31 days of plays. I did have a couple of people this morning asking if they could still take advantage of the special and I told them NO. It would not be fair to the people that did take advantage of the special. On the other hand, $49.00
for 31 days of plays is still a great value. I can't believe how much some of these handicaping services are charging. I could write a book on it.

If you are still interested, my fee is $49.00 for 31 days of plays. It amazes me how many prople fight for a $10 or $15 savings. Makes no sense to me, since this is not a quick hit proposition, but a long term invesrment. We are talking about thousands of potential dollars.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

The Advantage of Betting the First Five Innings (Baseball)

Good Afternoon,

When you bet on the first five innings, you eliminate a lot of factors. For the most part you don't have to worry about the bullpen, the bench strength or losing teams faltering in the last few innings.

Todays Milwaukee's win over Philadelphia is a perfect example. Philadelphia eventually won the game 4-3, but Milwaukee was leading 3-0 after the first five innings and we got a sweet +175 return.

I handicap different that most people because I strickly look at the 1st half or first five innings. In football for example it has been shown statistically that bad teams tend to falter in the second half of a game. There are a lot of reasons for this that I will get into later

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

The Due Theory in Baseball

In 1988 the Baltimore Orioles lost their first 21 games. I can share with you many other similar examples in virtually every team sport. It is a mistake to bet on a team that you feel IS DUE FOR A WIN.

It's human nature to think that will happen, but in reality you have no way of knowing when a losing streak will end. The smart thing to do is to stay away from teams that are on a losing streak until they prove you wrong. There are exceptions to the rule here but this is a good guideline to follow, especially if you are a beginner.

Just look at how poorly the Boston Red Sox have started this year. There is not one handicapper or professional analyst that would have predicted that Boston would start 2W-11L.

They are starting to turn things around now and they are on the verge of a three game winning streak. Now is the right time to look at Boston.

Do not get caught up in the "Due Theory". Do not force plays, wait until they come to you.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Using Multiple Sports Books + Money Management

Special thanks to client N.S. for suggesting a blog on this topic.

I never keep my whole bankroll in sports books. For example if I have a total bankroll of $10,000 I would put about half of it in sports book accounts and half of it in a bank account at home. That's just playing it safe (think Enron) However, when I bet I would bet 3-4% of the $10,000, not 3-4% of what I have in a particular sports book. Some sports books offer book to book money transfers usually at no charge. The list changes so you want to check with your sports book first.

I start everyone with 5Dimes because I like their interface, they offer good lines and they pay promptly. If your bankroll is small stick with 5Dimes, until you build up your bankroll.

Bet Jamaica and the Greek are owned by the same people and either would be an excellent alternative out if you are in a position to open a second or third account.. They are both A+ rated.

Shopping for the best line is definitely a good idea. If you get +134 at one book and +137 at another the difference adds up over time.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Sports Book Bonuses

Good Afternoon,
Virtually all sportsbooks will offer you a new member bonus and a reload bonus if you are adding money to your account. The important thing is you have to ask for it. Most sports books do not automatically give you a bonus.

Let's use 5Dimes as an example since that is where I refer new clients. I have no affiliation with 5Dimes, other than having accounts with them . They are financially strong and offer the type of bets we focus on.

Before you fund your account look for the rewards button on their home page. It is located at the far right. By the way, you can open an account with them without funding it if you just want to review the site.

5Dimes likes to steer you to their reduced juice bonus. It is an excellent offer, however it does not apply to the type of bets we make. You want to choose the 2nd option - New Player Rewards, The 50% Plus New Player Reward! Earn up to $520 in Free-Play Rewards to use in our Sportsbook.

One other point I would like to make is that I never bet the Casino side of a sportsbook. I'm not a very good Black Jack, Craps or Poker Player. It is up to you if you want to play the casino side, but I don't. There are plenty of opportunities on the sports betting side to make money.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Sports Betting Profits and Taxes

Gambling Profits and Tax Consequences.

Many people ask about the tax liability as it relates to sports betting. Offshore sports do not report to the IRS. If you make 20,000, 30,000 or more, the IRS will not know about it.

This is an issue that you have to decide on how to handle. Personally, I put down professional gambler as my line of employment. I report my gambling income to the IRS.

The bad news is I pay taxes on my winnings. The good news is that since I am self employed, I can write off flights, hotels and meals and numerous other things as long as it relates to my business.

How you handle your winnings is entirely up to you. I know clients that do not report any gambling winnings to the IRS, and others that do. How to deal with your winnings is entirely up to you.

There is a great site www.gamblerbookclub.com that offers an incredible list of gambling books on everything from Black Jack to Sports Betting. If you click on search, and enter taxes, the site will take you to books related to taxes.

It's up to you how you decide to deal with your profits.



www.gamblersbookclub.com/

Betting the Run Line in Baseball

When you view baseball lines at 5Dimes, The Greek or any other sports book they alway offer an alternative bet called the Run Line. Sportsbooks make a lot of money from Run Line bettors. You won't see many professiol bettors taking the Run Line.

Let me explain a Run Line bet by example:

Today Philadelphia plays Washington. The line for the the full nine innings (run lines are not offered on 5 inning bets) is:

Philadelphia -152
Washington +142

The Run Line bet on the same game is:

Philadephia -1 1/2 runs +105 (Philadephia has to win by two runs)
Washington +1 1/2 runs -125 (Washington wins the bet even if they only lose by one run).

Basically you are turning a favorite into an underdog and an underdog into a favorite. This is very enticing to bettors especially if a really good team is playing a bad team

However, f you bet the Run Line over time you will lose money. Every year there are teams that will bring you a profit if you bet every one of their games on the Run Line. The problem is how to identify those teams. The answer is you can't.

The reason run lines do not work over time is that statistically 32% of all MLB games are decided by one run. Your best bet is to stick to 5 inning money line underdogs.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Should We Bet on Hockey ?

Yes, we should! I spent the last couple of years closely monitoring an outstanding Hockey handicapper out of Canada. Last year he was up over 60 units, and this year he is +77 units, and the playoffs haven't started yet. We have very similar approaches in our focus on underdogs. He also has an advisory service which focuses exclusively on hockey.

I won't be betting any hockey games until next year, but there is a lot of money to be made in that sport. I'll be visiting my friend sometime over the next few weeks as he would like to incorporated some of the sports we bet on into his service.

If you look at the amount of betting that is wagered each year this is where you find the money going.

1. NFL
2 NCAAF
3 NBA
4. NCAAB
5. MLB
6. Hockey

It still amazes me that NFL betting (16 regular season games) sees more action than any other sport. This is important, because we like obscure matchup that pay the same money as a high profile NFL win.

Next year you will see some hockey incorporated into my service. I treat sports betting as a business. I love sports, but as I have mentioned before I love making money on sports even more..

If you are not yet on board with baseball, now is the time to join. So far we are
14W-8L - up 10.30 units

Regards,

George
703-217-0805

Roaring Start!

Through 04/06 (MTD 9W-5L +8.18 units)

A unit is the amount you bet. A $100 bettor would already be up $818 for the month. Mind you, That we are going to have great months, average months and losing months, but the big months will nullify the average months.

If you have not gotten started yet, now is the time.

We are off to a great start. The first two months of baseball are usually outstanding. Most teams are still at full strength. Now is the time to get started.

Regards,

George

703-217-0805

gak555@yahoo.com

The Rest of the NBA Regular Season

Most NBA teams have 4- 5 games left in the regular season. This is the time of year that many teams are jockeying for position, resting their players for the playoffs, or giving prospects more playing time. The key during this time of year is "Who is Motivated and Who Wants it More"

Handicapping at this time of the NBA season involves the above factors more so than anytime during the season. This is definitely the time of year that the best team doesn't always win.

Regards,

George 703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

In Baseball Definitely Expect the Unexpected.

Good Afternoon,

Today was a perfect example of the the crazy things that happen in baseball.
I had a first five innings play. (Pittsburgh vs Chicago. The take back was a very healthy +160

In the top of the 5th inning, Chicago was at home leading 2-0. In my mind I already lost that game.

With two outs and Pittsburgh at bat I hear a knock on the door. It's the Fed Ex guy with a delivery. We chatted for about 10 minutes, and when I came back to the computer, my jaw dropped. Pittsburgh hit a grand slam in the top of the 5th and went on to win the first five innings 4-2.

Get ready for the roller coaster ride that baseball will put you through. Throughout the year, we will have tough losses and unexpected wins. By making sure
you manage your money properly we will come out ahead because we are only betting the moneyline underdogs.

For clients that have not yet sent in their renewal fee or for new people on the fence, kindly request a PayPal money request so you can continue.

This is going to be a great baseball year.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

A Few Baseball Betting Tips

Good Morning,

1. Many of you will be betting through www.5Dimes.com If you open an account with them they offer some nice bonuses. Their default bonus is reduced juice
(lower commissions). Reduced juice is great, but it does not help us the way we bet.

Ask for the the 50% Plus New Player Reward. Also, any fees like Western Union will be added to your account as long as you deposit at least $250.00 Make sure you ask for it when you make a deposit.

(By the way, I am not affiliated with 5Dimes,but they are financially strong, they offer the type of bets that we want, and they are swift in their payouts).

2. Baseball lines are available overnight, however, the 5 Inning lines are usually not posted until 10:30 or 11:00 so you might have to wait before you place you bet.

3. 5Dimes accepts phone bets, but the minimum is $50.00

4. They have an excellent live chat if you have any questions about your account.

5. All bets are (listed pitchers). If a pitcher is scratch at the last minute it sinply becomes a voided bet.

6. When you want to receive money from them (payout) it is best to do so between 9:00 am and 1:00 pm on a Monday. One Monday a month there is no fee to get your money request. I usually have then wire the money to my bank account.

7. If you deposit by Western Union which is what I normally do you will need to ask them exactly who to send the money to. It changes daily. Live chat will be very helpful.

8. I recommend 4% of your bankroll per play. If you are new or nervous start
with 3%.

9. You will probably see more National League plays than American League plays. We like lower scoring games. The National League averages about one less run per game because they do not use the designated hitter, which of course, the American League does.

10. Baseball is a marathon not a sprint. The best teams will have losing streaks and the worse teams will have winning streaks. Expect great days, average days and losing days. Sometimes we will get blown out and other times we will win easily. Losing bets come with the territory.

Stick very tight to your money management. This should be an exciting season. If we can reach our goal of 50% winners, we will make a lot of money. All we focus on is the first 5 innings. Good luck to all of us.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Five Things You Should Know about Baseball Betting

1. There is less money bet on Baseball than Basketball and Football. In an earlier blog I pointed out that more money is bet on the NFL (16 regular season games) than in all of baseball, where each team plays 162 games. This absolutely favors our style of betting. We can find a lot of bets under the radar screen in baseball. If Kansas Ciy beats Oakland it counts the same as The Yankees beating the Red Sox.

2. Many people shy away from moneyline betting for various reasons. Number one is that at lot of folkes simply do not understand or are not at ease betting
moneylines. They are more comfortable with point spread betting, So they skip baseball.BIG MISTAKE.

3. Never, ever bet on a team that is favored. A lot of people will cringe hearing this and yes many favorite do win games. We focus strickly on moneyline underdogs that we believe have a 50% chance of leading after five innings. In the long run, if you discipline yourself to focus on one style of betting you are better off than betting a buffet of favorites, underdogs, totals and runlines.

4. The price you pay to bet a strong team that is favored will cost you money. Last year, for example, Tampa Bay was 96W-66 loses. If you bet on every game they played you would have lost about 10 units. The prime reason for this is that that the line is almost always inflated when a good team is playing a bad team. Of course there are winning teams that will make you money over the long haul, but why risk betting on them. There are just so many underdogs that have great value. Do not look for a sure thing or can't lose opportunity. Even if the favorite has the best pitcher in baseball going, you will find that anything, and I mean anything can happen.

5. Baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. By going for singles and doubles rather than home runs, you will make money. One thing you can say about baseball....there is always tommorow
____________________________________________________________________________________

I am pleased at the large number of clients that have already subscibed to April's plays.

I sent out a special to my client list as well as to folkes that have not tried my service yet. I do all payments through PayPal.

Please contact me if you are interested oe have any questions

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

The Baseball Marathon

THE FOLLOWING POST WAS WRITTEN BY SEAN MURPHY. I AM NOT THE AUTHOR. I AGREE WITH MOST OF MOST OF WHAT HE SAYS IN THE ARTICLE AND HAVE PUT MY COMMENTS NEXT TO EACH PARAGRAPH IN BOLD >

_____________________________________________________________________

Baseball may be known as America’s favorite pastime, but when it comes to betting, it generally takes a backseat to football and basketball. (More money is bet on the NFL- 16 regular seasons games than the MLB 162 regular season games. That is a good thing for us. There are so many games in baseball so it is easier to find hidden gems). That doesn’t mean there isn’t money to be made on the diamond. The summer can be a profitable time of year, as long as you’re willing to put in a little time and effort.


Moneyline betting requires a much different approach to that of pointspread betting. Discipline is the key and not making a habit of investing in big favorites is paramount. (Agree)

You can win 60 percent of the time and still see your bankroll shrink if you’re not careful. ( This happens when you bet on favorites.....something we never do).

Perhaps the most important notion to drill into your head is that even the best teams lose close to 40 percent of the time. The Pittsburgh Pirates finished with the worst record in baseball in 2010, but still won 57 games, or 35 percent of the time. That’s why laying big prices on a regular basis is a sure ticket to the poorhouse.
(Totally Agree).

Be smart about your wager amounts. It may be clichéd, but the MLB season is a marathon, not a sprint. Don’t lose your shirt in April when many of the best opportunities to cash in on the diamond come in the dog days of summer. (Agree)

Unlike other professional sports, which top out at 82 games, teams are on the field almost every day over the course of a 162-game season. There are going to be spots where they don’t bring the proper level of focus. (Happens very frequently).

Scouting pitching matchups has to become as much a part of your daily routine as brushing your teeth. There’s a reason why starting pitchers are listed right next to the game lines at every sportsbook. You won’t find an individual player with as much control over the odds in any sport. (True)

With that in mind, starting pitchers are only part of the equation. Solely basing your wager on who’s taking the ball on that particular day can lead to frustration.
(He is right. it is not just about the starting pitcher).

With today’s pitch counts, starters will often work six innings or less, leaving at least a third of the game in the hands of the bullpens. You can’t count on a starter to toss a complete game every time he takes the hill, so you’re more than likely going to be relying on a team’s relief corps when the game is on the line. Pay attention to those bullpens and how teams fare in one-run ball games. ( We only play on the first 5 innings of baseball games, so the bullpen and bench usually do not factor into our analysis).

Don’t doubt defense

Defense might just be the most overlooked area of the game when it comes to baseball handicapping. Teams that avoid those costly mistakes in the field win more often – it doesn’t get much simpler than that.(True).


Hot and cold

Make sure you pay attention to streaks. It’s not uncommon to see teams go on extended winning or losing runs lasting 10 games or more. The betting marketplace is often a little slow to the take when it comes to these hot or cold teams. As a general rule, it’s rarely a good idea to step in front of streaks on the diamond.
(Streaks are one of the main factors that we look out before making a play).

We will only be betting on underdog money line plays for the first 5 innings.

The Dangers of a Winning Streak

I know we have had three great days in a row. I wish we had 30 great days in a row, but that is not going to happen. Please do not get trigger happy and bet more than your normal amount. We are looking for singles and doubles, not home runs. Enjoy the winning streaks and work through the losing streaks. Do not let your emotions get too high or low. Stick to your money management.

Our goal as many of you know is to win 50% of our 1st half or first 5 inning plays.
If we do that, we will make a lot of money.

By the way, I can't believe that baseball is just a little more than a week away. Baseball is a great sport to bet on. Every year you see predictions of how teams are going to do for the season. And every year you see teams defy the predicions.
We will be looking for the hidden gems, and there will be plenty of them.

Baseball is very beatable. There is more money bet each year on the NFL (16 games) than is bet on MLB (162 games). A lot of people don't bet baseball because they are comfortable betting on the point spread as opposed to money line betting. That plays right into our hands since we only bet money line underdogs.

If you are not yet involved contact me about getting started with my service

Regards,

George
703-217-0805

Let the Festivities Begin

This is one of the best times of year to get started. We have March Madness and MLB coming up. There will be a lot of situations that play right into our hands. Expect upsets as they always happen. Today, I have three strong NCAA tournament play and there will be more to come. Normally I charge $79.00 per month through Fazzer Sports, where I am the moneyline specialist.

Fazzer Sports and I have the understanding that I can obtain new clients through my own efforts. For new folkes I will give the rest of March and April free for only $49.00.

If you request a PayPal invoice, I will send it and you can get started right away.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Timing Matters

Yesterday I had a strong play on E. Carolina vs. UCF. East Carolina was behind 39-34 at the half, so the bet was a loss. The first half takeback, by the way was +135.

E. Carolina came out like gangbusters in the second half and outscored UCF 41-21 to win the game 75-60. It reminded me of the the saying "the operation was a success, but the patient died".

I had the right side, but my timing was off. This is part of the process we go through. We will have the same thing happen to us frequently in our favor. So I am not upset or mad. I am realistic. The key is to make all the plays I recommend and you will be profitable. You have look at this as a long term investment.

I reduced my fee for the rest of March to $39.00, because it is already the tenth of the month. Just contact me if you want to get started.
Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Why I did not Bet on Miami or Ohio State

This morning I sent out the e-mail below. A couple of clients asked me why I did not bet on the favorites which both won the first half easily (Miami eventually lost the game but they came out on fire and won the first half).

The best answer is that I find that focusing and disciplining myself to only bet money line underdogs for the first half works over time for me. Like every handicapper, including the legendary Billy Waters, I am going to have my ups and downs. But, that is my specialty and the area I am most comfortable with. I know I will make money.

Some people bet favorites, underdogs, totals and proposition bets all in the same day and I am sure that some of them do very well. But if you work with me, expect only one type of play. Call or e-mail me if you have any questions

Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
________________________________________________________________________________

Good Morning,
Today we have NO PLAYS. The card for today is very light. There are two games that absolutely meet our criteria. However, my experience and sixth sense tells me not to play either game.

Chicago vs Miami - the first half moneyline for Chicago will come in around +150. The main reason for not betting this game is that I don't want to go against Miami in their own barn.......especially since they have lost three games in a row. I expect the Heat to come out very motivated in the first half.

Wisconsin vs Ohio State - the first half moneyline for Wisconsin will come in at a whopping +180 or higher. The issue here is purely emotional. Ohio State is playing at home and there is a huge revenge factor. Wisconsin came back to beat them in their last meeting after being behind by 15 points. The Ohio State players felt that they were dissed after the last meeting. I would expect them to come out strong.

As I have said before, sometimes less is more. We will get them tomorrow.

George

Professional Betting vs Recreational Betting

This article is taken from the Fazzer Sports archives. I am not the author

When comparing types of people who bet on sports, over the years it has been easy to see glaring differences between those who lose money betting on sports, and those who are able to show long term profits betting on sports. Let’s take a look at 3 of these differences and how they can help teach you to become more profitable betting on sports.

Long term winners have a detailed plan. Losers have no plan.

People who win long term treat sports betting as a serious business, not just a weekend hobby. They run their operations no different than if they were the head of a Fortune 500 company. No different than working as a Wall Street trader, serious sports bettors have specific goals that they are trying to achieve over a specific period of time – trying to maximize return on investment while taking the proper steps to minimize their risk.

On the other hand the “weekend warrior” has virtually no chance to win long term at sports betting. They treat it like gambling – with no specific plan and often times unrealistic expectations as to what they should be trying to accomplish and what is involved.

Long term winners have realistic goals. Losers gamble with the hopes of the big score.

If someone told me that I could have a 20% return on any investment, compounded for the next 25 years – from in investment standpoint I would be one VERY happy person! But the average losing sports bettor does not understand how powerful numbers like these can be over the long term. They want to turn $500 into $2500 in the course of one football season…and think that they can do it just because they watch every single football game each Sunday. Well more times than not the $500 is all gone by week 3 or 4 and they are left scratching their head saying, “What happened?”

Long term winners have proper bankrolls. Losers continue to reload their accounts.

Now why do losers continue to reload their accounts? They are betting too much per game. Let’s take the conservative 2% rule again. If someone starts with $500 they should be betting $10 a game. “What $10 dollars a game…..I can’t make any money betting only $10 a game…!” And herein lies the problem again. People start betting more than they should, because to make the money they are looking to make, they have to gamble with the small chance they will get on that 70% hot streak. But what happens 95% of the time? The hot streak never happens and their $500 dollars is gone before they know it.

Review of Key Points

Create a detailed plan
Have realistic goals
Understand proper bet size and bankroll
If you can have a good understanding of these three concepts, and have the discipline to follow them – you will be better off than over 90% of the people who bet on sports. Aim to become a long term winner…and not a losing gambler!

Betting on Baseball

Good Afternoon,

It is hard to believe that baseball is right around the corner. When we play on baseball teams we focus on the first five innings. We always look for underdogs that we feel have a 50% chance of being ahead after the first five innings.

Baseball is one of the easier sports to beat. There are so many games to choose from as each team plays 162 games. It is interesting to note that football and basketball betting dwarfs the amount of money that is bet on baseball. A lot of people are used to betting on the point spread and they are not comfortable betting on the money line. That's fine with us.

Our goal is to make money. If you win a baseball game between The Washington Nationals and the Kansas City Royals it counts the same as winning a bet between the Dallas Cowboys and Green Bay Packers.

A lot of my clients are not into baseball, but all of them are into making money.
Let me know if you have any questions about baseball betting.
Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

What March Madness Means to Us

In one word: OPPORTUNITY. Since we only bet 1st half moneyline underdogs the tournament will play right into our strength. The big equalizer is the three point
shot. Three pointers allow smaller mid-sized schools to compete with the larger well known programs.

During March Madness there are always upsets and more importantly, first half opportunitites. It is not uncommon, for example, for big time schools to take the George Masons and Bradleys of the world lightly. Part of it is human nature regardless of what coaches say before tip off time. For me, it is one of the most exciting times of the year to bet on sports.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Less is More!

Good Evening,
I spent yesterday and today carefully looking over every play that I have made over the last six months. As many of you know, I only bet on the first half moneyline dogs in basketball and football and the first five innings of baseball games.

What I discovered was that in each month we would have made more money if we focused on underdogs with a takeback of +130 or higher. I will still bet some underdogs that are +110 to +125, but the goal here is to make money, not the number of plays I make.

I think part of me felt obligated to give subscribers some action and I may have forced a few plays that I normally would not make. You can expect less plays but better results in the future.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Conference Play - College Basketball

Things are starting to heat up in college conference play. Sixteen of the teams in the top 20 come from the ACC-Big East-Big 10 and the Big 12. There are many teams on the bubble of making the NCAA tournament. Home team underdogs particularly shine in this environment.

We only bet 1st half moneyline underdogs so we should have plenty of opportunities that meet our criteria. If you are interested in my daily service, let me know.

Regards,
George
703-217-0805

ps. As a rule, I never bet all star exhibition games, and tonight's NBA all star game is no exception. Even though the last three of four NBA all star games went over the total, usually you find better value on the under, because so many people play and inflate the over. If you want to throw some play money into the game, you might want to wait to later today and take the under, the total should rise as we get closer to tip off (This is Not an Official Play)

Yesterday's loss

We played Richmond over Temple yesterday with a very healthy payback of +170. Richmond got slaughtered in the first half. We never had a chance as Temple was playing lights out. The point I want to make is that you should expect to lose about 50% of your bets. The fact is that we always make more money on our winners because we only play first money line underdogs which makers up for the losses.

The keys are to make all the plays and never bet more than 4% of your bankroll on any given play. If you do that, you will be fine in the long run

George
703-217-0805

Today's Plays

Today we have one play.

1. Richmond vs Temple - play Richmond. This game is a perfect example of the way we bet. Temple is a strong team, particulary at home. On the other hand, Richmond is an outstanding road team. The first half money line for Richmond is +170.
So a $100 bettor would win $170($170 plus they get back their $100 = $270) if Richmond is leading at the half.

If Temple is leading at the half then $100 bettors would lose $100. The key to betting 1st half moneyline underdogs is to look for opportunities where we feel that we have a good chance of leading at the half.

Surely, Richmond might be behind at the half, and we could easily have a loser. But, the risk reward/reward ratio very strong.

If you are interested in my service please contact me.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Do not be afraid of college road underdogs

Conference play in College Basketball is now in full swing. Lines makers typically give a home team three points, and sometimes 5 points (i.e. Duke)simply because they are playing at home. We have an inherent advantage in playing road underdogs. By now, teams have played enough away games to where they are getting used to playing in hostile environments.

This is where the advantage of betting road dogs come into play. Remember, we only bet on first half money dogs. Many of these road teams are better than the home team. All we are trying to do is "sneak one in" during the first half. Statistics do in fact show the more fouls are called against the visiting teams than the home teams. This increases in the 3rd and 4th quarter. Stay the course and make all of the plays and you will be profitable.

Why You have to make all of the plays

Why you have make all the plays
Yesterday we had zero winners 0W-2L (down 2.00 units) We had the The Pistons +130 for the first half and the LA Clipper for the 1st half + 170. We lost both games at the half by two points each

The important thing to realize is that these games could have gone either way.

If you stick to moneyline underdogs for the first half we will make money over the long haul. Do not get gunshy. Make all of the plays.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805

What happened yesterday.

Yesterday, we had two plays. Both money line underdogs for the first half. Some folkes are still having difficulty understanding money line underdog plays. When you
bet the money line, the point spread does not matter. If we are leading at the half, we win. If we are losing at the half we lose. Point spreads do not factor at all. By example, yesterday we had two plays.

1. Georgetown vs Syracuse - Syracuse was leading at the half so we lost that bet. We also bet Davidson vs Wofford and the payback was +175. Davidson was leading at the half 37-24, so that was a win.

The end result was 1W-1L. Since the payback was so high on Davison $100 bettors make $75.00 dollars.

This is how we make money. Betting the first half moneylines. Feel free to contact me by phone or e-mail and I can answer all of your questions.

Please note that I am offering the rest of February for $39.00 If you do not show a profit, then March is free.

George
703-217-0805

Why I Don't Bet Totals

Betting on the over/under score of a game is another approach that some sports bettors use. Sometimes I will bet a total with my fun money. However, I never give out an official play on a total.

There are two reasons why I stay away from them.

1. Over time, I have never been able to consistently beat them.

2. Commissions/Vig - there are exceptions to this but most total bets are going
to require you to pay approximately 10% commission. So just to break even
you will need to win 52.38% of your plays. You never want that situation
because it puts you in the hole right from the beginning. I prefer to stick
with the moneyline underdogs because you will always make more back on your
winners than losers. If we win 46-50% of our bets we wil make money.

If you are going to bet totals you will probably want to focus on the unders. By and large, the general public likes to bet on the over, so the over tends to be inflated, particularly on TV games.

Another thing to be aware of is that most people think that a rainy, nasty day should favor the under. However, keep in mind that the offenses know where they are going, and slippery conditions may give the offenses an advantage.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

I have a great special for February. $39.00 gets you all of the plays for February. If we don't turn a profit then March is free

A Random Walk Down Sports Street

Yesterday we were 3-1. Up 3.40 units (units are the amount that you normally bet). Certainly that was a good day for us. The one game we lost Missouri vs Texas was the game that I felt most strongly about.

We lost that game 71-58. I watched the whole game and it was very obvious that Texas came to play and Missouri did not. The point I am making is that our results are random. You never really know what is going to happen in a particular game. That is why it is so important to flat bet and make all of the plays. By focusing on Money Line underdogs we give ourselves a great chance to make money. As you know, winning 50% of our games is my stategy and it works.

Texas was hitting everything and Missouri could not find the rim. It made me think about a book I read about the stock market (A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel).

All of the statistics I looked at indicated that Missouri had a great chance to be ahead at the half. Well, they got hammered. The point I am making is simply make all of the plays that I release.

We will have winning streaks, and we will have losing streaks. That is reality.

If you stay with the program, you will make money.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Why February Will be a Strong Month

February has been a very strong month over the years. With a full card of NBA and NCAAB games is it a lot easier to find weak lines that we can exploit. On any given day, especially Wednesdays and Saturdays the linesmakers have their hands full with over 40 plays which they have to set lines for.

You will see me looking as some great values in games that are not TV or Marquee games. I'm talking about the Hofstra's and the Tenn Techs of the world. The nice thing is that you can be a winner in many of these games. The payback is going to be the same or higher than a televised Maryland vs Duke game.

Friday night college basketball is usually confined to the Ivy League schools. Believe me, there are a lot of opportunities in the Ivy League. Most of thes games have half full arenas so the home court advantage/disadvantage that I discussed in an earlier blog is negligible