If you study any casino game you will find that the house always has a built in probability advantage. They make the most money from Roulette players and the least from Black Jack players.
In point spread sports betting whether you bet the favorite or the underdog, you will pay an average of $110 to win $100. If you win you get $100. But, if you lose you are out $110. Just to break even you need to win 52.38% of your bets. To make any real money you need to win at least 56% or higher against the point spread. Trust me, that is not easy.
When betting the money line underdog in sports, you get the most bang for your buck.By example, let's say that the Yankees are favored by -170 over Kansas City and the take back on Kansas City is +155. That means if if you like the Yankees you would bet $170 to win $100. On the other hand if you bet Kansas City you would bet $100 to win $155. If the Yankees lose you are out $170. If they win you only win $100. Conversely if you bet KC and lose you are out $100. But if you win you are up $155.
The whole premise of how we win is to find underdogs that based on our analysis have a 50% chance of being ahead after the first half or first 5 innings of the games. If you are not aware, you can easily bet the first half of a game at most reputable sports books. In another blog I will explain why we bet the first half/1st five innings instead of the whole game. What we do is unique and very profitable. Contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Which Sportsbook to Use ?
There are an amazing number of sportsbooks out there that will take your bets. If you are on any type of sports betting mailing list, like I am, your mailbox will be full of very slick advertising pieces from sportsbooks that offer you a plethora of bonuses and special offers.
Oftentimes, when I ask a client or potential client who they bet with, it is a book that I have never heard of. Nothing wrong with that as long as you get paid. The important thing if you bet with me is having a sportsbook that does first half money lines and first five inning moneylines.
I know that having multiple sportsbooks to compare prices is a good idea, but I find that most people stick to one or two sportsbooks. I normally steer people to 5Dimes to start and if they want to add a book to compare prices, BetJamaica. I have no affiliation with these books, but I know they are solid and most importantly, they pay. I have had accounts with them for years.
If you want to see how your sportsbook rates go to www.sportsbookreview.com This site rates a very large number of sportbooks
Oftentimes, when I ask a client or potential client who they bet with, it is a book that I have never heard of. Nothing wrong with that as long as you get paid. The important thing if you bet with me is having a sportsbook that does first half money lines and first five inning moneylines.
I know that having multiple sportsbooks to compare prices is a good idea, but I find that most people stick to one or two sportsbooks. I normally steer people to 5Dimes to start and if they want to add a book to compare prices, BetJamaica. I have no affiliation with these books, but I know they are solid and most importantly, they pay. I have had accounts with them for years.
If you want to see how your sportsbook rates go to www.sportsbookreview.com This site rates a very large number of sportbooks
Friday, September 17, 2010
We Always Lose the Popularity Contests
There are a number of websites that display which teams are being chosen to win by recreational bettors. By and large, these stats come from amateur contest websites such as Wagerline.com. The vast majority of everyday bettors go with the favorites. That is something we never do as we bet money line underdogs.
We are professional bettors that bet to make money. We often go against the grain and realize that anything can happen in a sporting event. Most people that come to me have been losing money either due to bad pick selection(mainly favorites) or poor money management.
I have tunnel vision when it comes to my official bets. Sometimes I have the same can't lose reaction to a favorite and feel like backing up the Brinks truck to bet large.
Betting on favorites can be fun, but I always resist the temptation. People that read this blog and have made good money betting on favorites will scoff at this and move on.
My take is that if you just bet favorites, it is just a matter of time before you lose. The legenday gurus in this business like Bob McCune, Lem Banker and David Sirvansky all focus or fucused on the 'dogs. That is where the real long term money can be found.
We are professional bettors that bet to make money. We often go against the grain and realize that anything can happen in a sporting event. Most people that come to me have been losing money either due to bad pick selection(mainly favorites) or poor money management.
I have tunnel vision when it comes to my official bets. Sometimes I have the same can't lose reaction to a favorite and feel like backing up the Brinks truck to bet large.
Betting on favorites can be fun, but I always resist the temptation. People that read this blog and have made good money betting on favorites will scoff at this and move on.
My take is that if you just bet favorites, it is just a matter of time before you lose. The legenday gurus in this business like Bob McCune, Lem Banker and David Sirvansky all focus or fucused on the 'dogs. That is where the real long term money can be found.
Thursday, September 16, 2010
The Best Sports Books
sportsbookreview.com
This is an outstanding website that has been rating sports books since 1999. I am amazed how many thriving sports books are out there. People just love to wager.
I recommend you stick to the top rated sports books. I always start my new clients with 5Dimes.com because I know their operation very well and have received countless payouts from them. BetJamaica.com is another favorite of mine and if you want to open a second account to compare prices, this one is a good choice. They are very solid and they are owned by the same group that owns The Greek.com which is also highly rated.
You can open an account with just about any sports book without depositing any money. If you are going to be working with me and open an account at 5Dimes.com under source make sure you put my name: George Kallajxhi. They know me down there and I send them a lot of new customers. I'll make sure you get you 20% initial deposit bonus.......something they normally do not advertise.
This is an outstanding website that has been rating sports books since 1999. I am amazed how many thriving sports books are out there. People just love to wager.
I recommend you stick to the top rated sports books. I always start my new clients with 5Dimes.com because I know their operation very well and have received countless payouts from them. BetJamaica.com is another favorite of mine and if you want to open a second account to compare prices, this one is a good choice. They are very solid and they are owned by the same group that owns The Greek.com which is also highly rated.
You can open an account with just about any sports book without depositing any money. If you are going to be working with me and open an account at 5Dimes.com under source make sure you put my name: George Kallajxhi. They know me down there and I send them a lot of new customers. I'll make sure you get you 20% initial deposit bonus.......something they normally do not advertise.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
The Beauty of Money Line Underdogs
Below is part of the write up I sent to my clients this morning. We have three plays today. If Washington is leading after five innings $100 bettors will have cleared $170 above the $100 they bet. Their payback would read (+270 because they get the original risk amount back plus the additional $170). I hope this blog doesn't blow up in my face with an Atlanta rally before the 5th inning is over. Right now we are in the top of the 5th inning and Washington is leading 4-1. I purposely wrote this blog before the end of the 5th inning because if Atlanta does rally to take the lead in the bottom of the 5th it will show you that in sports anything can happen.
If we win, we have two more games left today. The worse thing that could happen is that we lose them both. If that occurs , $100 bettors are only out $30 for the day. If the last two games split we make money. If we win all three games, that is a huge day because of the big take backs we have on our underdog plays.
If you are not aboard yet, my monthly service fee is a very reasonable $50.00
Join now through PayPal and get the rest of September free and all of October. This will include baseball and football. Please mention this blog as your source of the promotion.
_________________________________________________________________________________
1. Washington Nationals vs Atlanta - John Lannan has pitched very well for the Nats lately. In his last 21 innings he has only given up 5 runs. Mike Minor of Atlanta is good, however in his last four starts he has been very hitable given up more hits than innings pitched. Big take back today at around +170 as we try to sneak one in.
If we win, we have two more games left today. The worse thing that could happen is that we lose them both. If that occurs , $100 bettors are only out $30 for the day. If the last two games split we make money. If we win all three games, that is a huge day because of the big take backs we have on our underdog plays.
If you are not aboard yet, my monthly service fee is a very reasonable $50.00
Join now through PayPal and get the rest of September free and all of October. This will include baseball and football. Please mention this blog as your source of the promotion.
_________________________________________________________________________________
1. Washington Nationals vs Atlanta - John Lannan has pitched very well for the Nats lately. In his last 21 innings he has only given up 5 runs. Mike Minor of Atlanta is good, however in his last four starts he has been very hitable given up more hits than innings pitched. Big take back today at around +170 as we try to sneak one in.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
How did I know the Padres would Win ?
For the second straight day I was asked how I knew a team would win. Yesterday it was the KC Chiefs, which was an unpopular pick among my clients. Tonight it was the San Diego Padres.
If you are new to all this we only bet the first 5 innings of baseball games or the first half of football and basketball games. The San Diego Padres-Colorado Rockies game is still going on as I type this. But, San Diego was ahead after 5 innings 4-3. End of bet. That's all we care about. We were leading after five innings. $100 bettors with a take back of +150 made $150 of pure profit.
Getting back to the question of how I knew the Padres would win tonight. The answer is "I DIDN'T." No one knows who will win a contest. I am a professional handicapper and I know what is reasonable and what is not. When I see touts running their ads, everyone of them seems to have gone 16-4 their last 20 games. That is a bunch of bull. Could it happen. Sure. I once went 15-0 betting money line underdogs. That is incredible, but not common. Stay away from these guys that tell you they are doing that every week. I think most of them are great marketers and probably not very good handicappers.
I will say it again, I am in the probabilty business, not the prediction business. If you are a client, make all of the plays, as we will have winning and losing streaks. In the end we can't help but be profitable based on the way we bet.
If you are new to all this we only bet the first 5 innings of baseball games or the first half of football and basketball games. The San Diego Padres-Colorado Rockies game is still going on as I type this. But, San Diego was ahead after 5 innings 4-3. End of bet. That's all we care about. We were leading after five innings. $100 bettors with a take back of +150 made $150 of pure profit.
Getting back to the question of how I knew the Padres would win tonight. The answer is "I DIDN'T." No one knows who will win a contest. I am a professional handicapper and I know what is reasonable and what is not. When I see touts running their ads, everyone of them seems to have gone 16-4 their last 20 games. That is a bunch of bull. Could it happen. Sure. I once went 15-0 betting money line underdogs. That is incredible, but not common. Stay away from these guys that tell you they are doing that every week. I think most of them are great marketers and probably not very good handicappers.
I will say it again, I am in the probabilty business, not the prediction business. If you are a client, make all of the plays, as we will have winning and losing streaks. In the end we can't help but be profitable based on the way we bet.
Thursday, September 9, 2010
Why Betting on Football will be Profitable
As many of you know, we will be betting on first half money line underdogs in College Football and the NFL. I want to use tonight's opening NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints as an example of how profitable football betting will be for us.
The point spread for the first half of tonight's game was Minnesota (+3 -110). So if you wanted to win $100 you would have bet $110. You pay a price for that
3 point buffer, and most people do in fact bet the point spread.
However, the money line for the Vikings was +160 for the first half. Points do not matter when betting the money line. If you would have bet $100 on Minnesota, you would have won $160. THAT IS PROFOUND, and the secret to our success.
If we average +150 on our first half money line bets, we would only need to be leading at the half 40% of the time to break even. Everything above 40% is pure profit.
We are not in the prediction business, we are in the probability business.
Our goal is to find favorable spots where we feel that we have a 50% chance of being ahead at the half.
Regardless of what you may think or read, no one can predict exactly what will happen in a sporting event. Tonight, it looked like New Orleans was going to coast to a 7-3 halftime lead. Instead, Minnesota scored a touchdown in the last two minutes(they missed the extra point) and ended up with a 9-7 lead. So Minnesota bettors won their first half bet.
If you held a gun to my head and asked me what the score would be at halftime, I would have said New Orleans 14 - Minnesota 3. But like I said I do not predict scores. I look for favorable probabilities.
We will have tough loses and fortunate wins. That is part of what we do. Take it in stride, use proper money management and you will be OK.
I look forward to a very profitabe football season.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
The point spread for the first half of tonight's game was Minnesota (+3 -110). So if you wanted to win $100 you would have bet $110. You pay a price for that
3 point buffer, and most people do in fact bet the point spread.
However, the money line for the Vikings was +160 for the first half. Points do not matter when betting the money line. If you would have bet $100 on Minnesota, you would have won $160. THAT IS PROFOUND, and the secret to our success.
If we average +150 on our first half money line bets, we would only need to be leading at the half 40% of the time to break even. Everything above 40% is pure profit.
We are not in the prediction business, we are in the probability business.
Our goal is to find favorable spots where we feel that we have a 50% chance of being ahead at the half.
Regardless of what you may think or read, no one can predict exactly what will happen in a sporting event. Tonight, it looked like New Orleans was going to coast to a 7-3 halftime lead. Instead, Minnesota scored a touchdown in the last two minutes(they missed the extra point) and ended up with a 9-7 lead. So Minnesota bettors won their first half bet.
If you held a gun to my head and asked me what the score would be at halftime, I would have said New Orleans 14 - Minnesota 3. But like I said I do not predict scores. I look for favorable probabilities.
We will have tough loses and fortunate wins. That is part of what we do. Take it in stride, use proper money management and you will be OK.
I look forward to a very profitabe football season.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
An example of the importance of money management
Today I released two 5 inning baseball underdog plays (see analyses below). We went 1W-1L, so $100 bettors were up $25 for the day. I'll take a plus money day anytime. We won the Houston game and lost the Chicago White Sox game.
The point I want to make is that our pitcher for the Chicago White Sox, Freddy Garcia, left the game after two innings due to a sore back. This is the kind of thing that can make the best and most thorough analysis go right out the window.
The lesson to be learned is always flat bet the same amount of money on EVERY game regardless of how strongly you feel about a play. Forget5 Star bets, game of the week and all that nonsense because anything can happen.
When you flat bet a specific amount on each play you can weather an unfortunate occurance or a losing streak. Think of this as long term sports investing rather than betting.
Good Morning,
Today we have two plays.
1. Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs - Here we have two teams that are fighting for respect. Both of them have been playing fairly well lately. What we really like is the pitching match up. Our guy, Nelson Figueroa has been excellent. He is a part time reliever/part time starter. In sixty innings of work this year he has only given up 21 runs. Carlos Silva of the Cubs had a great start this season, but has not pitched since August 1st He was sidelined due to minor heart surgery. In his last seven innings, he has given up 14 runs. The take back will be +125 or so.
2. Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers - Both pitchers have been consistent recently. What is really attractive about this game is the take back that will come in at around +145 to +150. The White Sox have won 7 games in a row and are only 3 1/2 games out of first place. They have momentum and incentive. Detroit on the other hand has lost two in a row and they are out of contention. This line is simply out of wack.
All Baseball Plays - 1st 5 inning money lines
All Football Plays - 1st half money lines
Tally based on risking $100 per play
Month to Date Results - 4W-3L +$281
The point I want to make is that our pitcher for the Chicago White Sox, Freddy Garcia, left the game after two innings due to a sore back. This is the kind of thing that can make the best and most thorough analysis go right out the window.
The lesson to be learned is always flat bet the same amount of money on EVERY game regardless of how strongly you feel about a play. Forget5 Star bets, game of the week and all that nonsense because anything can happen.
When you flat bet a specific amount on each play you can weather an unfortunate occurance or a losing streak. Think of this as long term sports investing rather than betting.
Good Morning,
Today we have two plays.
1. Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs - Here we have two teams that are fighting for respect. Both of them have been playing fairly well lately. What we really like is the pitching match up. Our guy, Nelson Figueroa has been excellent. He is a part time reliever/part time starter. In sixty innings of work this year he has only given up 21 runs. Carlos Silva of the Cubs had a great start this season, but has not pitched since August 1st He was sidelined due to minor heart surgery. In his last seven innings, he has given up 14 runs. The take back will be +125 or so.
2. Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers - Both pitchers have been consistent recently. What is really attractive about this game is the take back that will come in at around +145 to +150. The White Sox have won 7 games in a row and are only 3 1/2 games out of first place. They have momentum and incentive. Detroit on the other hand has lost two in a row and they are out of contention. This line is simply out of wack.
All Baseball Plays - 1st 5 inning money lines
All Football Plays - 1st half money lines
Tally based on risking $100 per play
Month to Date Results - 4W-3L +$281
Monday, September 6, 2010
Some Insights into Football Betting
First of all, it was nice to start September with two strong MLB days. I know when it comes to betting, that football rules. However, there will still be plenty of great sport investing opportunities left in baseball, so I urge you to keep making those baseball wagers.
We will shortly begin having plays in NCAAF and NFL. Since so many games are clustered on the weekends it is very important to watch your money management carefully and never bet more than 4% on any one game.
The bets we make will all be first half money line bets on the underdogs. Our goal is to be leading at least 50% of the games at halftime.
Unlike baseball, where you have to wait until the day of the game to wager, you will usually see the first half football lines posted earlier in the week. There is a lot of debate about whether you will get a better line if you bet early in the week or wait until the last minute. The general wisdom is to bet favorites early in the week and wait until game day to bet underdogs. Over time it becomes a wash, so don't get hung up on that.
Some specific things to focus on when you are betting on football:
( I have much more that I will share in future blogs)
1. I know just about everyone will want to bet on televised games or on their favorite teams. Let's face it, it's fun. I would simply recommend you bet 1/2 or less of your normal amount that you would use for your regular bets.
2. Some of the best values out there will be on obscure teams that do not get much media attention. These can be gems. Remember our goal is to make money through our sports investing.
3. Home field advantage in college football can be justified for a lot of teams. However, in many cases a team playing at home doesn't really have a strong advantage. For example, there is a huge difference between a team like Michigan playing in front of 102,000 home team fans, and a Towson University my alma mater) playing in front of 20,000 home fans. The lines makers typically award 3 points to most home teams as a built in advantage regardless of who they are. We will be looking closely at road underdogs that have a better team but are underdogs in large part because they are playing away.
_____________________________________________________________________________
The fee for my service is $50.00 a month regardless of how many plays I release. From now through the end on October the nuber of plays tend to spike up. If you like to figure out how much you are paying per pick, it will probably come out to less than 50 cents per game. Contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
We will shortly begin having plays in NCAAF and NFL. Since so many games are clustered on the weekends it is very important to watch your money management carefully and never bet more than 4% on any one game.
The bets we make will all be first half money line bets on the underdogs. Our goal is to be leading at least 50% of the games at halftime.
Unlike baseball, where you have to wait until the day of the game to wager, you will usually see the first half football lines posted earlier in the week. There is a lot of debate about whether you will get a better line if you bet early in the week or wait until the last minute. The general wisdom is to bet favorites early in the week and wait until game day to bet underdogs. Over time it becomes a wash, so don't get hung up on that.
Some specific things to focus on when you are betting on football:
( I have much more that I will share in future blogs)
1. I know just about everyone will want to bet on televised games or on their favorite teams. Let's face it, it's fun. I would simply recommend you bet 1/2 or less of your normal amount that you would use for your regular bets.
2. Some of the best values out there will be on obscure teams that do not get much media attention. These can be gems. Remember our goal is to make money through our sports investing.
3. Home field advantage in college football can be justified for a lot of teams. However, in many cases a team playing at home doesn't really have a strong advantage. For example, there is a huge difference between a team like Michigan playing in front of 102,000 home team fans, and a Towson University my alma mater) playing in front of 20,000 home fans. The lines makers typically award 3 points to most home teams as a built in advantage regardless of who they are. We will be looking closely at road underdogs that have a better team but are underdogs in large part because they are playing away.
_____________________________________________________________________________
The fee for my service is $50.00 a month regardless of how many plays I release. From now through the end on October the nuber of plays tend to spike up. If you like to figure out how much you are paying per pick, it will probably come out to less than 50 cents per game. Contact me if you have any questions.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Sunday, September 5, 2010
If you are serious about making money on sports betting
Good Evening,
I had a number of people that have decided to give my service a try. To be exact, there were 7 new clients that signed up via PayPal while I was on vacation.
Today was the first day I released plays for September. The good news is that we went 2W-1L today. $100 bettors were up about $180.
For those of you that have not started yet, below is the actually e-mail I sent out this morning to my clients. Hopefully, it will give you a good idea of the type of analysis I provide. I try to keep it short and simple as I know my clients only have one goal in mind...MAKING MONEY.
What confuses many people is the concept of betting money line underdogs for the first five innings of a baseball game or the first half of a football or basketball game. 90% of sports bettors are used to betting the pointspread. If you look at one of my earlier blogs, I explain very clearly why betting the point spread is a losing proposition. .
My clients are always welcome to contact me by phone or e-mail as I love talking about sports betting.
In a nutshell, when we bet the money line underdog for the first five innings or the first half, we always win more money than we risk. That allows towin only 45% or 50% of our bets and make good money.
I am one of the very few people that bet this way. All I care about is putting myself in a favorable situation to make money.
I will be putting this exact e-mail as my latest blog to hopefully give newcomers more information.
Look for an exciting day tomorrow. I have not decided yet, but we may have our first college football play. Stay tuned.
___________________________________________________________________-
Good Morning,
Expect a lot of football action this month. Also September will be a fascinating month in baseball as teams jockey for position to pull out a division title or wildcard spot. Other teams are bringing up a bunch of minor league players to evaluate and still other teams will be throwing in the psychological towel early.
Our job is to capitalize on the opportunities that present themselves.
Today we have three plays:
1. Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis - We have two teams that are going in opposite dirrections. Cincinnati is 7-3 and St. Louis is 2-8 over the last ten games. In addition, the Reds bats are hot. They have scored 5 or more runs in four of their last five games. St. Louis does have a pitching advantage as Chris Carpenter is very solid. However, he has shown signs of a tired arm in his last two starts. What makes this a particularly appealing play is the whopping +160 or so takeback we will be getting.
2. Colorado Rockies vs San Diego - every year a top team or two crumbles in September. San Diego sure looks like a candidate for the choke of the year award. Although they are still sitting on top of their division, they have lost nine games in a row.
Today's matchups feature two excellent pitchers. We will take our chances with a surging Colorado team vs a San Diego team that is in turmoil. We will have a decent decent takeback of about +120
3. Chicago White Sox vs Boston - Chicago is on a roll having won five games in a row. They are only 3 1/2 games out of first place. Boston, on the other hand is one of those teams that looks about ready to throw in the towel. They are 10 games out looking up at the formidable Yankees and Rays. The pitching matchup is a virtual wash. What we like is the momemtum and the +125 approximate takeback.
All baseball games are first 5 Inning money lines plays
All football games are first half money line plays
I had a number of people that have decided to give my service a try. To be exact, there were 7 new clients that signed up via PayPal while I was on vacation.
Today was the first day I released plays for September. The good news is that we went 2W-1L today. $100 bettors were up about $180.
For those of you that have not started yet, below is the actually e-mail I sent out this morning to my clients. Hopefully, it will give you a good idea of the type of analysis I provide. I try to keep it short and simple as I know my clients only have one goal in mind...MAKING MONEY.
What confuses many people is the concept of betting money line underdogs for the first five innings of a baseball game or the first half of a football or basketball game. 90% of sports bettors are used to betting the pointspread. If you look at one of my earlier blogs, I explain very clearly why betting the point spread is a losing proposition. .
My clients are always welcome to contact me by phone or e-mail as I love talking about sports betting.
In a nutshell, when we bet the money line underdog for the first five innings or the first half, we always win more money than we risk. That allows towin only 45% or 50% of our bets and make good money.
I am one of the very few people that bet this way. All I care about is putting myself in a favorable situation to make money.
I will be putting this exact e-mail as my latest blog to hopefully give newcomers more information.
Look for an exciting day tomorrow. I have not decided yet, but we may have our first college football play. Stay tuned.
___________________________________________________________________-
Good Morning,
Expect a lot of football action this month. Also September will be a fascinating month in baseball as teams jockey for position to pull out a division title or wildcard spot. Other teams are bringing up a bunch of minor league players to evaluate and still other teams will be throwing in the psychological towel early.
Our job is to capitalize on the opportunities that present themselves.
Today we have three plays:
1. Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis - We have two teams that are going in opposite dirrections. Cincinnati is 7-3 and St. Louis is 2-8 over the last ten games. In addition, the Reds bats are hot. They have scored 5 or more runs in four of their last five games. St. Louis does have a pitching advantage as Chris Carpenter is very solid. However, he has shown signs of a tired arm in his last two starts. What makes this a particularly appealing play is the whopping +160 or so takeback we will be getting.
2. Colorado Rockies vs San Diego - every year a top team or two crumbles in September. San Diego sure looks like a candidate for the choke of the year award. Although they are still sitting on top of their division, they have lost nine games in a row.
Today's matchups feature two excellent pitchers. We will take our chances with a surging Colorado team vs a San Diego team that is in turmoil. We will have a decent decent takeback of about +120
3. Chicago White Sox vs Boston - Chicago is on a roll having won five games in a row. They are only 3 1/2 games out of first place. Boston, on the other hand is one of those teams that looks about ready to throw in the towel. They are 10 games out looking up at the formidable Yankees and Rays. The pitching matchup is a virtual wash. What we like is the momemtum and the +125 approximate takeback.
All baseball games are first 5 Inning money lines plays
All football games are first half money line plays
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Al Roker and Sports Betting
My vacation to the Outer Banks,NC was cut short due to a mandatory evacuation. We were told to leave late Thursday. The big news was the approach of Hurricane Earl. The Weather Channel even sent Al Roker down to give continual updates.
The forecast vacillated from Earl being a major category four hurricane to it missing the Outer Banks completely and heading north. The end result was that “Hurricane Earl” just missed the Outer Banks and caused strong winds and rain. No real harm done.
All of the expert meteorologists were monitoring the storm and giving their opinions as to the ultimate path of Hurricane Earl. Truth be told, no one knew exactly what would happen.
How does this relate to sports betting? Well, when we bet on a sporting event nothing can be guaranteed. So many things can happen to alter our analysis. For example, did our quarterback get injured on the second play of the game? Is there a torrential rain that virtually prevents the passing game from being effective? Did our team’s plane have a three hour delay causing our players to change their normal routine?
The point is, when we bet on money line underdogs ONLY we have a cushion for the unexpected. We always win more on our bets than we initially risk. We do not need to win 55% or 60% of our bets to be profitable. A 50% winning percentage makes us a lot of money. A 45% winning percentage would put us in break even territory.
When I release plays, just like Hurricane Earl, I cannot guarantee the end results. However, I have a buffer thaat allows me to be wrong and still make money. That is the beauty of money line betting.
The way I bet is going to make money. I am not in the prediction business, I am in the probability business. Over time we will be successful and make a ton of money.
September is a great month because we have three sports that overlap ( MLB-NFL and NCAAF). Traditionally I do not bet the first week of college football.
There were 31 games today in college football that had first half money lines. I will learn more from the results of those games than I would from reading the 12 college football publications that come out before the season starts. Next week we will have a number of college football plays.
Don’t forget that there is still a lot of money to be made in these final weeks of baseball. You might be surprised at some of my baseball recommendations that I will be sending out. Every team has a COMPLETELY different outlook in September. After 17 years of sports betting, I know exactly what to look for. I expect September to be a very profitable month. For my current subscribers, make sure you make all of the plays and stick to your money management. September will be an excellent money maker.
The forecast vacillated from Earl being a major category four hurricane to it missing the Outer Banks completely and heading north. The end result was that “Hurricane Earl” just missed the Outer Banks and caused strong winds and rain. No real harm done.
All of the expert meteorologists were monitoring the storm and giving their opinions as to the ultimate path of Hurricane Earl. Truth be told, no one knew exactly what would happen.
How does this relate to sports betting? Well, when we bet on a sporting event nothing can be guaranteed. So many things can happen to alter our analysis. For example, did our quarterback get injured on the second play of the game? Is there a torrential rain that virtually prevents the passing game from being effective? Did our team’s plane have a three hour delay causing our players to change their normal routine?
The point is, when we bet on money line underdogs ONLY we have a cushion for the unexpected. We always win more on our bets than we initially risk. We do not need to win 55% or 60% of our bets to be profitable. A 50% winning percentage makes us a lot of money. A 45% winning percentage would put us in break even territory.
When I release plays, just like Hurricane Earl, I cannot guarantee the end results. However, I have a buffer thaat allows me to be wrong and still make money. That is the beauty of money line betting.
The way I bet is going to make money. I am not in the prediction business, I am in the probability business. Over time we will be successful and make a ton of money.
September is a great month because we have three sports that overlap ( MLB-NFL and NCAAF). Traditionally I do not bet the first week of college football.
There were 31 games today in college football that had first half money lines. I will learn more from the results of those games than I would from reading the 12 college football publications that come out before the season starts. Next week we will have a number of college football plays.
Don’t forget that there is still a lot of money to be made in these final weeks of baseball. You might be surprised at some of my baseball recommendations that I will be sending out. Every team has a COMPLETELY different outlook in September. After 17 years of sports betting, I know exactly what to look for. I expect September to be a very profitable month. For my current subscribers, make sure you make all of the plays and stick to your money management. September will be an excellent money maker.
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