Good Morning,
Last night we had a really wacky win. We bet Baltimore +110 to be leading Boston after five innings of play. Baltimore was the home team. With two outs in the bottom of the 5th, Boston was leading 6-2. I just figured that would be a loss.
Baltimore ended up scoring five runs and took the lead 7-6, which gave
us a win. Boston scored eight runs in the eight inning and won the game 15-10.
Sometimes we will have fortunate wins and sometimes we will have tough losses.
It comes with the territory. What is interesting is that we tend to remember the tough losses more than the fortunate wins.
I still clearly recall a two loss day about three years ago. I was leading two college basketball games as the first half was coming to a close. I lost both games on last second three point shots from midcourt. I couldn't believe it.
Reality, is that over the long haul the fortunate wins and tough loses even themselves out. That is why we only bet underdog money lines.
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
Friday, July 8, 2011
When Very Good Pitchers Face Elite Pitchers
Good Morning,
Today one of our plays is Atlanta vs. Philadelphia for the first five innings. The payback on Atlanta is a very nice +160 The last time that Roy Halladay pitched for Philadelphia I stayed out of his way. He is one of the best in the business.
What is different about tonight's game is that Atlanta has been playing very well lately and they are sending Brandon Beachy to the mound. Beachy is flying under the radar right now, and a lot of people do not know much about him. He is going to be very good.
An interesting thing happens when a good pitcher faces the best. Often a confident, good pitcher relishes the opportunity to go against the elite. It is not uncommon to see them elevate they game to a high level.
Of course, this does not always happen, but with a strong takeback of +160 we have an excellent chance of leading this game after five innings. Even if we are behind 10-0 after five, this is still a very good bet as our goal is to win 50% of our plays.
Today one of our plays is Atlanta vs. Philadelphia for the first five innings. The payback on Atlanta is a very nice +160 The last time that Roy Halladay pitched for Philadelphia I stayed out of his way. He is one of the best in the business.
What is different about tonight's game is that Atlanta has been playing very well lately and they are sending Brandon Beachy to the mound. Beachy is flying under the radar right now, and a lot of people do not know much about him. He is going to be very good.
An interesting thing happens when a good pitcher faces the best. Often a confident, good pitcher relishes the opportunity to go against the elite. It is not uncommon to see them elevate they game to a high level.
Of course, this does not always happen, but with a strong takeback of +160 we have an excellent chance of leading this game after five innings. Even if we are behind 10-0 after five, this is still a very good bet as our goal is to win 50% of our plays.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Winning Streaks and Losing Streaks
Good Evening,
If we are on a losing streak, which will happen, there is a strong tendency for players to skip some plays or wait until we are on a winning streak to start betting again . Bad idea.
On the other hand, if we are on a strong winning streak which will also happen, some clients will double their bet size, etc. Another bad idea.
Bob McCune, my mentor, taught me that betting on sports, especially
Baseball (162 games per year)is a grind filled with ups and downs. Never get too high or too low based on your results.
Sports bettng is exciting. However, making money is even more exciting. I highly recommend that you stay with all of the plays that I recommend and flat bet each one with the same amount of money regardless if we are doing great or if we are in a funk.
We never really know if we are going to have a bad month or if we are going to hit a home run. In the long run we will prevail and we will be profitable. Stay with it play by play.
If we are on a losing streak, which will happen, there is a strong tendency for players to skip some plays or wait until we are on a winning streak to start betting again . Bad idea.
On the other hand, if we are on a strong winning streak which will also happen, some clients will double their bet size, etc. Another bad idea.
Bob McCune, my mentor, taught me that betting on sports, especially
Baseball (162 games per year)is a grind filled with ups and downs. Never get too high or too low based on your results.
Sports bettng is exciting. However, making money is even more exciting. I highly recommend that you stay with all of the plays that I recommend and flat bet each one with the same amount of money regardless if we are doing great or if we are in a funk.
We never really know if we are going to have a bad month or if we are going to hit a home run. In the long run we will prevail and we will be profitable. Stay with it play by play.
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