Good Afternoon,
One of the things I look at when handicapping is what is the total for game. The total is set by the bookmakers to determine how many runs will be scored in a game.
They look for a number that ideally would split the action so that 1/2 of the bettors are betting under and 1/2 are betting over.
Many people bet on totals because it does not matter who wins. The only goal is how many runs are scored in a game.
The reason I do not bet totals is that you usually end up paying juice/commission. I never want to bet on a game when the cards are stacked against me. I want PLUS money everytime. I do not want to put myself in a position where I have to win more than 50% of my games to break even
If you look at my record you will see that in baseball, about 60% of my bets are made on the National League, because they do not have the designated hitter like the American League. Typically you will find National League totals to be about one run lower than the American League.
Generally speaking, lower scoring games in baseball give us a slight advantage to be ahead after five innings. This is just one of many factors that need to be looked at, but it is something you want to be aware of.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
HANDICAP TIP - NUMBER 2
Good Afternoon.
Handicapping games for the 1st five innings or for the first half is not easy. If it was, we would all be millionares. We cannot guarantee winners and if you run across a handicapper that gives you guarantees, etc. your best bet is to just stay away.
There is a lot of money to be made if you follow my picks. The important thing is to follow the money management rules that I share with you.
The three things that hurt my clients the most are:
1. Bettng too much on one game.
2. Doubling their bets to mske up for a losing day (chasing)
3. Not understanding the importance of the long term picture. Sports betting is a
marathon, not a sprint. If you do things the right way, you will be successful.
Evey professional gambler will have great months, average months and losing
months. It comes with the territory.
Stick religiously to my plays, and you will make money. Do not avoid a play because it does not look good to you. I am trained to look for opportunities that puts sports investors in a position to be ahead after the 1st 5 innings and after the 1st half (football and Basketball).
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
0.
Since we only bet money line underdogs, you a
Handicapping games for the 1st five innings or for the first half is not easy. If it was, we would all be millionares. We cannot guarantee winners and if you run across a handicapper that gives you guarantees, etc. your best bet is to just stay away.
There is a lot of money to be made if you follow my picks. The important thing is to follow the money management rules that I share with you.
The three things that hurt my clients the most are:
1. Bettng too much on one game.
2. Doubling their bets to mske up for a losing day (chasing)
3. Not understanding the importance of the long term picture. Sports betting is a
marathon, not a sprint. If you do things the right way, you will be successful.
Evey professional gambler will have great months, average months and losing
months. It comes with the territory.
Stick religiously to my plays, and you will make money. Do not avoid a play because it does not look good to you. I am trained to look for opportunities that puts sports investors in a position to be ahead after the 1st 5 innings and after the 1st half (football and Basketball).
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
0.
Since we only bet money line underdogs, you a
Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Handicapping Tip
Good Afternoon,
One of several things I look at when I handicap is what goes on between games. For example, on 04/19 the Boston Celtics beat the Knicks 96-93. It was a nice win for the Celtics, but Boston Coach Doc Rivers was not at all happy.
He made his team watch their performance in that game four times in a row. He pointed out every mistake he could find and called out to his players to step up, correct the errors and to play Celtic basketball, and this was after a win. That was one of the reasons I took Boston in the next game which they won 113-96.
My goal is to win 50% of my plays-always betting on moneyline underdogs. There is no magic formula to picking winners. If I win 50% of my plays my clients and I will make a lot of money since we are always getting plus money on our winners.
This month has been great, and we are up +19.05 units. This will not happen every month. However, over time if you discipline yourself to follow my plays you will be a winner.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
One of several things I look at when I handicap is what goes on between games. For example, on 04/19 the Boston Celtics beat the Knicks 96-93. It was a nice win for the Celtics, but Boston Coach Doc Rivers was not at all happy.
He made his team watch their performance in that game four times in a row. He pointed out every mistake he could find and called out to his players to step up, correct the errors and to play Celtic basketball, and this was after a win. That was one of the reasons I took Boston in the next game which they won 113-96.
My goal is to win 50% of my plays-always betting on moneyline underdogs. There is no magic formula to picking winners. If I win 50% of my plays my clients and I will make a lot of money since we are always getting plus money on our winners.
This month has been great, and we are up +19.05 units. This will not happen every month. However, over time if you discipline yourself to follow my plays you will be a winner.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Thursday, April 21, 2011
It Happens Every Year
Good Afternoon,
Prior to baseball season there are countless number of newspapers, magazines and professional analysts that try to predict which teams will be successful and which team will not. For example, who would have predicted the following through Wednesday April 20th.
1. C1eveland 13W-5L
2. Colorado 13W-5L
3. Boston 6W-11L
4. Minnesota 6W-12L
5. NY Mets 5W-13L
Probably very few people. That is why we do not predict winners, we look for probabilities. Forget the last 3 or 4 years of a team's record....doesn't mean a thing. Do not force plays because a team is due to win. Let the plays come to you based on what's happening now. This is similar to trend analysis in the stock market
The good news is that we can bail out quickly if things go against our desired results. As long as we average 8-10 units per month we make a lot of money.
Please note, the special I offered for $49.00 to give you all the plays through May 31st is over as of Midnight last night. I am back to charging $49.00 for 31 days of plays. I did have a couple of people this morning asking if they could still take advantage of the special and I told them NO. It would not be fair to the people that did take advantage of the special. On the other hand, $49.00
for 31 days of plays is still a great value. I can't believe how much some of these handicaping services are charging. I could write a book on it.
If you are still interested, my fee is $49.00 for 31 days of plays. It amazes me how many prople fight for a $10 or $15 savings. Makes no sense to me, since this is not a quick hit proposition, but a long term invesrment. We are talking about thousands of potential dollars.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Prior to baseball season there are countless number of newspapers, magazines and professional analysts that try to predict which teams will be successful and which team will not. For example, who would have predicted the following through Wednesday April 20th.
1. C1eveland 13W-5L
2. Colorado 13W-5L
3. Boston 6W-11L
4. Minnesota 6W-12L
5. NY Mets 5W-13L
Probably very few people. That is why we do not predict winners, we look for probabilities. Forget the last 3 or 4 years of a team's record....doesn't mean a thing. Do not force plays because a team is due to win. Let the plays come to you based on what's happening now. This is similar to trend analysis in the stock market
The good news is that we can bail out quickly if things go against our desired results. As long as we average 8-10 units per month we make a lot of money.
Please note, the special I offered for $49.00 to give you all the plays through May 31st is over as of Midnight last night. I am back to charging $49.00 for 31 days of plays. I did have a couple of people this morning asking if they could still take advantage of the special and I told them NO. It would not be fair to the people that did take advantage of the special. On the other hand, $49.00
for 31 days of plays is still a great value. I can't believe how much some of these handicaping services are charging. I could write a book on it.
If you are still interested, my fee is $49.00 for 31 days of plays. It amazes me how many prople fight for a $10 or $15 savings. Makes no sense to me, since this is not a quick hit proposition, but a long term invesrment. We are talking about thousands of potential dollars.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Wednesday, April 20, 2011
The Advantage of Betting the First Five Innings (Baseball)
Good Afternoon,
When you bet on the first five innings, you eliminate a lot of factors. For the most part you don't have to worry about the bullpen, the bench strength or losing teams faltering in the last few innings.
Todays Milwaukee's win over Philadelphia is a perfect example. Philadelphia eventually won the game 4-3, but Milwaukee was leading 3-0 after the first five innings and we got a sweet +175 return.
I handicap different that most people because I strickly look at the 1st half or first five innings. In football for example it has been shown statistically that bad teams tend to falter in the second half of a game. There are a lot of reasons for this that I will get into later
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
When you bet on the first five innings, you eliminate a lot of factors. For the most part you don't have to worry about the bullpen, the bench strength or losing teams faltering in the last few innings.
Todays Milwaukee's win over Philadelphia is a perfect example. Philadelphia eventually won the game 4-3, but Milwaukee was leading 3-0 after the first five innings and we got a sweet +175 return.
I handicap different that most people because I strickly look at the 1st half or first five innings. In football for example it has been shown statistically that bad teams tend to falter in the second half of a game. There are a lot of reasons for this that I will get into later
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Monday, April 18, 2011
The Due Theory in Baseball
In 1988 the Baltimore Orioles lost their first 21 games. I can share with you many other similar examples in virtually every team sport. It is a mistake to bet on a team that you feel IS DUE FOR A WIN.
It's human nature to think that will happen, but in reality you have no way of knowing when a losing streak will end. The smart thing to do is to stay away from teams that are on a losing streak until they prove you wrong. There are exceptions to the rule here but this is a good guideline to follow, especially if you are a beginner.
Just look at how poorly the Boston Red Sox have started this year. There is not one handicapper or professional analyst that would have predicted that Boston would start 2W-11L.
They are starting to turn things around now and they are on the verge of a three game winning streak. Now is the right time to look at Boston.
Do not get caught up in the "Due Theory". Do not force plays, wait until they come to you.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
It's human nature to think that will happen, but in reality you have no way of knowing when a losing streak will end. The smart thing to do is to stay away from teams that are on a losing streak until they prove you wrong. There are exceptions to the rule here but this is a good guideline to follow, especially if you are a beginner.
Just look at how poorly the Boston Red Sox have started this year. There is not one handicapper or professional analyst that would have predicted that Boston would start 2W-11L.
They are starting to turn things around now and they are on the verge of a three game winning streak. Now is the right time to look at Boston.
Do not get caught up in the "Due Theory". Do not force plays, wait until they come to you.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Using Multiple Sports Books + Money Management
Special thanks to client N.S. for suggesting a blog on this topic.
I never keep my whole bankroll in sports books. For example if I have a total bankroll of $10,000 I would put about half of it in sports book accounts and half of it in a bank account at home. That's just playing it safe (think Enron) However, when I bet I would bet 3-4% of the $10,000, not 3-4% of what I have in a particular sports book. Some sports books offer book to book money transfers usually at no charge. The list changes so you want to check with your sports book first.
I start everyone with 5Dimes because I like their interface, they offer good lines and they pay promptly. If your bankroll is small stick with 5Dimes, until you build up your bankroll.
Bet Jamaica and the Greek are owned by the same people and either would be an excellent alternative out if you are in a position to open a second or third account.. They are both A+ rated.
Shopping for the best line is definitely a good idea. If you get +134 at one book and +137 at another the difference adds up over time.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
I never keep my whole bankroll in sports books. For example if I have a total bankroll of $10,000 I would put about half of it in sports book accounts and half of it in a bank account at home. That's just playing it safe (think Enron) However, when I bet I would bet 3-4% of the $10,000, not 3-4% of what I have in a particular sports book. Some sports books offer book to book money transfers usually at no charge. The list changes so you want to check with your sports book first.
I start everyone with 5Dimes because I like their interface, they offer good lines and they pay promptly. If your bankroll is small stick with 5Dimes, until you build up your bankroll.
Bet Jamaica and the Greek are owned by the same people and either would be an excellent alternative out if you are in a position to open a second or third account.. They are both A+ rated.
Shopping for the best line is definitely a good idea. If you get +134 at one book and +137 at another the difference adds up over time.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Friday, April 15, 2011
Sports Book Bonuses
Good Afternoon,
Virtually all sportsbooks will offer you a new member bonus and a reload bonus if you are adding money to your account. The important thing is you have to ask for it. Most sports books do not automatically give you a bonus.
Let's use 5Dimes as an example since that is where I refer new clients. I have no affiliation with 5Dimes, other than having accounts with them . They are financially strong and offer the type of bets we focus on.
Before you fund your account look for the rewards button on their home page. It is located at the far right. By the way, you can open an account with them without funding it if you just want to review the site.
5Dimes likes to steer you to their reduced juice bonus. It is an excellent offer, however it does not apply to the type of bets we make. You want to choose the 2nd option - New Player Rewards, The 50% Plus New Player Reward! Earn up to $520 in Free-Play Rewards to use in our Sportsbook.
One other point I would like to make is that I never bet the Casino side of a sportsbook. I'm not a very good Black Jack, Craps or Poker Player. It is up to you if you want to play the casino side, but I don't. There are plenty of opportunities on the sports betting side to make money.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Virtually all sportsbooks will offer you a new member bonus and a reload bonus if you are adding money to your account. The important thing is you have to ask for it. Most sports books do not automatically give you a bonus.
Let's use 5Dimes as an example since that is where I refer new clients. I have no affiliation with 5Dimes, other than having accounts with them . They are financially strong and offer the type of bets we focus on.
Before you fund your account look for the rewards button on their home page. It is located at the far right. By the way, you can open an account with them without funding it if you just want to review the site.
5Dimes likes to steer you to their reduced juice bonus. It is an excellent offer, however it does not apply to the type of bets we make. You want to choose the 2nd option - New Player Rewards, The 50% Plus New Player Reward! Earn up to $520 in Free-Play Rewards to use in our Sportsbook.
One other point I would like to make is that I never bet the Casino side of a sportsbook. I'm not a very good Black Jack, Craps or Poker Player. It is up to you if you want to play the casino side, but I don't. There are plenty of opportunities on the sports betting side to make money.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Thursday, April 14, 2011
Sports Betting Profits and Taxes
Gambling Profits and Tax Consequences.
Many people ask about the tax liability as it relates to sports betting. Offshore sports do not report to the IRS. If you make 20,000, 30,000 or more, the IRS will not know about it.
This is an issue that you have to decide on how to handle. Personally, I put down professional gambler as my line of employment. I report my gambling income to the IRS.
The bad news is I pay taxes on my winnings. The good news is that since I am self employed, I can write off flights, hotels and meals and numerous other things as long as it relates to my business.
How you handle your winnings is entirely up to you. I know clients that do not report any gambling winnings to the IRS, and others that do. How to deal with your winnings is entirely up to you.
There is a great site www.gamblerbookclub.com that offers an incredible list of gambling books on everything from Black Jack to Sports Betting. If you click on search, and enter taxes, the site will take you to books related to taxes.
It's up to you how you decide to deal with your profits.
www.gamblersbookclub.com/
Many people ask about the tax liability as it relates to sports betting. Offshore sports do not report to the IRS. If you make 20,000, 30,000 or more, the IRS will not know about it.
This is an issue that you have to decide on how to handle. Personally, I put down professional gambler as my line of employment. I report my gambling income to the IRS.
The bad news is I pay taxes on my winnings. The good news is that since I am self employed, I can write off flights, hotels and meals and numerous other things as long as it relates to my business.
How you handle your winnings is entirely up to you. I know clients that do not report any gambling winnings to the IRS, and others that do. How to deal with your winnings is entirely up to you.
There is a great site www.gamblerbookclub.com that offers an incredible list of gambling books on everything from Black Jack to Sports Betting. If you click on search, and enter taxes, the site will take you to books related to taxes.
It's up to you how you decide to deal with your profits.
www.gamblersbookclub.com/
Betting the Run Line in Baseball
When you view baseball lines at 5Dimes, The Greek or any other sports book they alway offer an alternative bet called the Run Line. Sportsbooks make a lot of money from Run Line bettors. You won't see many professiol bettors taking the Run Line.
Let me explain a Run Line bet by example:
Today Philadelphia plays Washington. The line for the the full nine innings (run lines are not offered on 5 inning bets) is:
Philadelphia -152
Washington +142
The Run Line bet on the same game is:
Philadephia -1 1/2 runs +105 (Philadephia has to win by two runs)
Washington +1 1/2 runs -125 (Washington wins the bet even if they only lose by one run).
Basically you are turning a favorite into an underdog and an underdog into a favorite. This is very enticing to bettors especially if a really good team is playing a bad team
However, f you bet the Run Line over time you will lose money. Every year there are teams that will bring you a profit if you bet every one of their games on the Run Line. The problem is how to identify those teams. The answer is you can't.
The reason run lines do not work over time is that statistically 32% of all MLB games are decided by one run. Your best bet is to stick to 5 inning money line underdogs.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Let me explain a Run Line bet by example:
Today Philadelphia plays Washington. The line for the the full nine innings (run lines are not offered on 5 inning bets) is:
Philadelphia -152
Washington +142
The Run Line bet on the same game is:
Philadephia -1 1/2 runs +105 (Philadephia has to win by two runs)
Washington +1 1/2 runs -125 (Washington wins the bet even if they only lose by one run).
Basically you are turning a favorite into an underdog and an underdog into a favorite. This is very enticing to bettors especially if a really good team is playing a bad team
However, f you bet the Run Line over time you will lose money. Every year there are teams that will bring you a profit if you bet every one of their games on the Run Line. The problem is how to identify those teams. The answer is you can't.
The reason run lines do not work over time is that statistically 32% of all MLB games are decided by one run. Your best bet is to stick to 5 inning money line underdogs.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Monday, April 11, 2011
Should We Bet on Hockey ?
Yes, we should! I spent the last couple of years closely monitoring an outstanding Hockey handicapper out of Canada. Last year he was up over 60 units, and this year he is +77 units, and the playoffs haven't started yet. We have very similar approaches in our focus on underdogs. He also has an advisory service which focuses exclusively on hockey.
I won't be betting any hockey games until next year, but there is a lot of money to be made in that sport. I'll be visiting my friend sometime over the next few weeks as he would like to incorporated some of the sports we bet on into his service.
If you look at the amount of betting that is wagered each year this is where you find the money going.
1. NFL
2 NCAAF
3 NBA
4. NCAAB
5. MLB
6. Hockey
It still amazes me that NFL betting (16 regular season games) sees more action than any other sport. This is important, because we like obscure matchup that pay the same money as a high profile NFL win.
Next year you will see some hockey incorporated into my service. I treat sports betting as a business. I love sports, but as I have mentioned before I love making money on sports even more..
If you are not yet on board with baseball, now is the time to join. So far we are
14W-8L - up 10.30 units
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
I won't be betting any hockey games until next year, but there is a lot of money to be made in that sport. I'll be visiting my friend sometime over the next few weeks as he would like to incorporated some of the sports we bet on into his service.
If you look at the amount of betting that is wagered each year this is where you find the money going.
1. NFL
2 NCAAF
3 NBA
4. NCAAB
5. MLB
6. Hockey
It still amazes me that NFL betting (16 regular season games) sees more action than any other sport. This is important, because we like obscure matchup that pay the same money as a high profile NFL win.
Next year you will see some hockey incorporated into my service. I treat sports betting as a business. I love sports, but as I have mentioned before I love making money on sports even more..
If you are not yet on board with baseball, now is the time to join. So far we are
14W-8L - up 10.30 units
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
Thursday, April 7, 2011
Roaring Start!
Through 04/06 (MTD 9W-5L +8.18 units)
A unit is the amount you bet. A $100 bettor would already be up $818 for the month. Mind you, That we are going to have great months, average months and losing months, but the big months will nullify the average months.
If you have not gotten started yet, now is the time.
We are off to a great start. The first two months of baseball are usually outstanding. Most teams are still at full strength. Now is the time to get started.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
A unit is the amount you bet. A $100 bettor would already be up $818 for the month. Mind you, That we are going to have great months, average months and losing months, but the big months will nullify the average months.
If you have not gotten started yet, now is the time.
We are off to a great start. The first two months of baseball are usually outstanding. Most teams are still at full strength. Now is the time to get started.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Wednesday, April 6, 2011
The Rest of the NBA Regular Season
Most NBA teams have 4- 5 games left in the regular season. This is the time of year that many teams are jockeying for position, resting their players for the playoffs, or giving prospects more playing time. The key during this time of year is "Who is Motivated and Who Wants it More"
Handicapping at this time of the NBA season involves the above factors more so than anytime during the season. This is definitely the time of year that the best team doesn't always win.
Regards,
George 703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Handicapping at this time of the NBA season involves the above factors more so than anytime during the season. This is definitely the time of year that the best team doesn't always win.
Regards,
George 703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Friday, April 1, 2011
In Baseball Definitely Expect the Unexpected.
Good Afternoon,
Today was a perfect example of the the crazy things that happen in baseball.
I had a first five innings play. (Pittsburgh vs Chicago. The take back was a very healthy +160
In the top of the 5th inning, Chicago was at home leading 2-0. In my mind I already lost that game.
With two outs and Pittsburgh at bat I hear a knock on the door. It's the Fed Ex guy with a delivery. We chatted for about 10 minutes, and when I came back to the computer, my jaw dropped. Pittsburgh hit a grand slam in the top of the 5th and went on to win the first five innings 4-2.
Get ready for the roller coaster ride that baseball will put you through. Throughout the year, we will have tough losses and unexpected wins. By making sure
you manage your money properly we will come out ahead because we are only betting the moneyline underdogs.
For clients that have not yet sent in their renewal fee or for new people on the fence, kindly request a PayPal money request so you can continue.
This is going to be a great baseball year.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Today was a perfect example of the the crazy things that happen in baseball.
I had a first five innings play. (Pittsburgh vs Chicago. The take back was a very healthy +160
In the top of the 5th inning, Chicago was at home leading 2-0. In my mind I already lost that game.
With two outs and Pittsburgh at bat I hear a knock on the door. It's the Fed Ex guy with a delivery. We chatted for about 10 minutes, and when I came back to the computer, my jaw dropped. Pittsburgh hit a grand slam in the top of the 5th and went on to win the first five innings 4-2.
Get ready for the roller coaster ride that baseball will put you through. Throughout the year, we will have tough losses and unexpected wins. By making sure
you manage your money properly we will come out ahead because we are only betting the moneyline underdogs.
For clients that have not yet sent in their renewal fee or for new people on the fence, kindly request a PayPal money request so you can continue.
This is going to be a great baseball year.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
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