The Beach Ball Factor in Baseball

Is momentum important in baseball ?

Yes, it is very important. Each team will play 162 games. You will see that every team from the best to the worst is going to have winning streaks and losing streaks. Good hitting and good pitching are contagious.

Betting on an underdog that has been on a winning streak is one of my favorite plays. Bob McCune taught me to never get in the way of a winning or a losing streak in baseball. Regardless of the team, sometimes the hitters collectively will be seeing Beach Balls and sometimes they will be seeing BB guns come to the plate.

The best way to look at these opportunities is to focus of recent performance. What happened one or two months ago does not matter. What does matter, is what has a team done lately. Forget about statistics for the full season, what happened last week is much more important.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Baseball - Pitching Changes

Good Afternoon,

I want to clarify the difference in baseball between action bets and listed pitchers.
We always want to bet listed pitchers. Baseball lines are highly influenced by whom is pitching for both sides.

If you place a bet at most sports books they automatically default to listed pitchers. That means if the listed pitchers do not start the game and a replacement pitcher gets the call, your bet is null and void and you just get your money back. If you bet action, then regardless of a pitching change, your bet will stand.

This year in baseball we have only had two games with last minute pitching changes, so this is not a major concern, but it is something to be aware of.

Last year I went to a Washington Nationals game. The highly touted rookie Steven Strausburg was scheduled to pitch. Unfortunately during warm ups he was having stiffness in his shoulder, so they scratched him for the game and brought someone else in to start the game. Anyone that bet either side would have just gotten their money back because Strauburg did not start .

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

When Bad isn't that Bad

Good Morning,

Yesterday, we had four plays. Below is the e-mail that I sent to subscribers. It was definitely one of those days. We went 1W-3L. We lost all three of our day MLB games and won the NBA bet.

I do not like losing money, but tough days are part of what we do. I just want to point out that we were down only 1.25 units on the day. The reason is that we had Oklahoma City at +175. That is the advantage of betting money line underdogs. When we have a good day, our returns far out shines the bad days.

If you are a subsciber, just accept what happened yesterday, and move on. The nice thing about sports betting is that there is always tomorrow.

___________________________________________________________________________


Good Morning,
Today we have one NBA and three MLB plays. Please note the early starts:

1. (9:05) Oklahoma City vs Dallas - play OC +175

2. (12:05) Cleveland Indians vs Boston. play Cleveland +155

3. (1:05) Toronto Blue Jays vs NY Yankees. play Toronto +155

4. (2:05) Chicago White Sox vs Texas. play Chicago White Sox +1.31

All Plays are 1st half or 1st five inning money lines

Which Sport Book to Use

Good Afternoon,
I send all new clients to 5Dimes.com (I have no affiliation with them other than being a long term client). Most sports books will allow you to open an account without actually funding it. This gives you a chance to review the site.

Many sites have numerous betting options including online casinos. Personally, I would never place a casino bet using an online sports book.

We specialize in one type of bet so when you look at a sports book, avoid all the bells and whistles and find out if they allow 1st half and 1st five inning money line betting.


Also, find out about any potential bonus that is being offered. It might seem like a hassle when you open up an account at a sports book because they vary in the ways they accept money, and might require you to fax a copy of your license, etc. However, once you do it, it's done.

You should also know that off shore sports books do not report income to the IRS. Below is a website that evaluates over 750 sports books. I strongly recommend that you use a sports book that is rated A or A+ and that accepts our type of betting.

BetJamaica.com and theGreek.com are two other quality sites that accept our type of betting. If you have a large bankroll, you might want to open accounts at more that one sports book. This allows you to shop for the best price.

www.sportsbookreview.com

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

The Zig-Zag Theory

The Zig-Zag theory is one of the most popular handicapping techniques especially during the NBA playoffs. It is based on the simple theory: The team that wins a game is less likely to improve than the one that just lost. The loser comes out more hungry because every play off game is a must win situation.

I look at the Zig-Zag theory when I handicap the NBA playoffs and to some degree the MLB post season. There are several times that this approach is helpful, especially when you are dealing with strong defenses.

However, over time you can not place bets strickly using this theory. If it worked then technically every playoff series would go seven games, and we know that doesn't happen.

So look at the revenge factor, just don't hang your hat on it or use it exclusively.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Realistic Expectations

Good Morning,
The class I teach and my e-book are both titled How to Make $50,000 a Year Betting on Sports.

I am not a very good marketing guy, but someone that is recommended this title to attract attention. It certainly has done that. But, I want clients to be realistic about what they can make betting on sports.

Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month. If you work with me, that is very realistic, but you have to look at sports investing as a long term investment.

Over the course of a year, we will have huge months, average months and
losing months.


We never know when we will hit a big month or a losing month. That is why it is important to use proper money management (flat betting 3-4% of your of your bankroll) on each play.

We should hit at least 100 units( a unit is the amount you bet) every year. If you want to make $50,000 profit you would have to bet about $500.00 per play.

Many of my clients cannot bet $500 per game. I get calls and e-mails all the time from people that want to know how they can turn a bankroll of $500 into a bankroll of $50,000. You can't over night. If you take the amount you bet on each game and multiply it by 100, that will give you a more realistic picture of what you will make. For example, if you are a $100 bettor you should make $10,000 a year.

The good news is that as your bankroll increases, so does your amount that you bet on every game. Also, there is no easier way to make money than properly betting on sports.

We are not affected by unemployment rates or an uncertain economy. I know that if I compare my returns to what you can get in the options, futures, commodities and stock market, I will win hands down.

If you are a current client you know you can contact me by phone or e-mail at anytime. I try to answer questions as quickly as possible.

If you have not yet signed up and are sitting on the fence, now is a great time to get started. Just call or e-mail me and I will tell you why.

Regards.

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Flat Betting Every Game

Special Thanks to client Jeff A. for giving me the idea to do this post.

Tonight we have two plays. My client suggested we bet more on one game than the other. I totally understand and respect his opinion.

I flat bet every game even if I feel particularly strong about a play. In the long run that is the way to go. A gentleman that I tutored with, Bob McCune, used to say that "every pitcher has a no hitter in them." His point was that anything can happen in a particular game.

When I pick a team to win, I can easily point out reasons they could lose. It's the plus money that gives us a cushion. The last couple of days we had a couple of very close losses. That comes with the territory. You will find that over time we will have a lot of close winners , too.
Please stick to betting the same amount on every game even if it takes you out of your comfort zone.


Regards,

George

Yesterday's Recap

Good Morning,
Yesterday I sent out five plays to my clients and potential clients(which I do ocassionally). The end result was 1W-2L -.75 units. It looked like we were poised for a big day after winning the San Francisco game.

What was frustrating was that we were leading in everyone of our other games.

1. Oklahoma City which had a large payback of +170 was leading 27-20 after the first quarter. Dallas came out smoking in the 2nd quarter and out scored OC 35-21

2. Texas was up 3-0 and the White Sox got three runs in the bottom of the fifth to push the game

3. San Diego scored first, but they were behind 2-1 after five innings.

4. The Toronto game was postponed due to weather.

If anything, yesterday reinforced the importance of good money management
(flat betting 3-4% on every game) because we will have days like yesterday. We will also have days where the exact opposite happens and he hit a big 4-5 unit day.

Because we have the advantage of only betting money line underdogs that we feel have a 50% chance of being ahead after the first half or first five innings it gives us a nice cushion.

For existing clients we have 14 days to get to our average of 8-10 units per month. Very realistic.

For potential clients the special offer to try my service will end on May 20th.

Let me know if you have any questions.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Betting Overs and Unders on Baseball

Special thanks to client Andy R for giving me the idea to blog on this topic

Many clients are interested in betting on over and unders. If you are a beginner, all the sports we bet on include an over/under option. By example, in baseball if San Francisco is playing the LA Dodgers, the linesmakers will post a total of lets say 8 1/2.

Over/under bettors do not care who wins. They care about how many runs are scored in the game. Usually you will find in baseball that the totals are lower by about one run in the National League vs the American League because the National League does not have a designated hitter. In the National League, the pitcher must bat.

There are countless ways that people handicap totals. Some of them include pitching matchups, wind direction, altitude of a stadium, humidity, team stats and home umpires.

Looking at the home umpire is particularly interesting as umpires develop a reputation of having a tight strike zone or a forgiving stike zone. Unfortunately, for bettors this phenomenon does not hold steady over time. If you look at every umpire and see how they they have done over the last five years, you will not find one umpire that is consistently biased one way or the other.

Below is a link to a good article by Allen Moody that you can copy and paste. You might want to subscribe to his newsletter. It is free and informative.

I am not a very good totals handicapper. A fews years ago, I did a lot of over/under betting, but I did not get consistent results, so I moved away from that arena. I am sure that there are professionals that focus on totals, but I have never found one that is consistently profitable over time.

http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/baseballbetting/a/umpires.htm

Recent Performance vs Year Long Stats

Good Evening,
Many very smart people, including baseball managers, have tried to analyze baseball games through the use of Sabermetrics, which in a nutshell is an intense crunching of past performance numbers to predict the outcome of future games. It does have merit, and I use that approach to some degree when I handicap games.

Reality is that the result of a particular game is totally random. Anything can happen. When you look at excellent hitters, for example, that have a batting average of over .300 you will see that over the course of a season they will have streaks and slumps. They are not going to consistently get three hits out of every ten at bats. It just doesn't happen that way.

What is really more important is "What have you done lately" That is a much better measure of how a player will do in their next game. The emotional analysis of a game is much more important to me than a team's year long record. I don't care if a pitcher is 2W-7L on the year. I care about his recent performance. Also, winning and losing are contagious, as are team pitching and team hitting. You will almost never see me bet on a team that has lost it's last three games. I simply do not adhere to the popular notion that a team "Is Due". Play close attention to momentum and recent performance.

When you do that and at the same time focus on money line underdogs you will be a long term winner.

George
703-217-0805

Does Defense Matter in Baseball ?

Absolutely!

If you look at stats for football and basketball you can easily find how teams are doing defensively. However, defense is probably the most overlooked significant stat in baseball.

Very few sports bettors look at how a MLB team is doing defensively. The reason is that baseball is a lower scoring game than football and basketball. The effects of a bad defense are easy to overlook in baseball. But if you look at every one run game in Baseball, most times you will find that the losing team had more errors than the winning team.

Last year, if you bet every game on the worse three teams defensively you would have been down 45-50 units.

This is not the holy grail that will make you a winner. But it is something you should look at when picking a play.

I always look at this stat when I am handicapping. It is one of many factors that I use to handicap games, and sometimes it will determine whether or not to move forward.

For my clients, I do this as part of my service. If you see me make a play, you can be sure that I looked at defense vs defense.

If you are not yet a client, and have questions feel free to contact me.

Regards,


George K
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Handicapping Pitchers

Good Afternoon,
In April we ended up +17.17 units and through May 12th we are up almost
3 units. Our goal is to average 8-10 units per month (a unit is the amount you bet). This is a perfect scenario for us to have another excellent month as we have over 1/2 of May to reach our goals.

We look at a lot of factors when making a play. When you compare pitchers for example, many people just compare ERA's. That is worthless.

The important things to look at are:

1. WHIP ( walks + hits divided by innings pitched.) The lower the number the better.

2. The ratio of a pitcher's ground balls outs vs fly ball outs. This can be
significant. We like pitchers that keep the ball on the ground
especially since we focus on the first five innings.

3. Recent performance is important, W/L record for the season is not. What a pitcher
did in the beginning of April has no reflection on on his next start in May or
June.

4. A pitchers performance against the team they are facing. It is true that some
pitchers simply do well when pitching in a ballpark that they like and some
simply do not do well in certain ballparks. I remember Michael Jordan saying
that he disliked playing in Detroit (you would not know that from looking at
his stats) because he felt their rims were too tight and not forgiving.

With all that being said, there are a lot of other factors to look at. Remember that our goal is to win 50% of our games (first five inning underdogs). Anything can happen. Every starting pitcher at the MLB level has a no-hitter in them.

Historically, when you look at no-hitters, at least half of them were acheived by one game wonders.

The above factors are just some of the things to look at. When handicapping sometimes it looks like a game has all the stars lined up for a win.

It does not work that way. There are no guarantees. We just put ourselves in a position where we feel that our team has a 50% chance to be ahead after five innings.

Over time, we will make money. We will experience winning and losing streaks, lucky wins and tough beats.

The fact that we only play money line underdogs helps to cushion the unexpected.

Please contact me if you have not yet received my free e-book or if you would like to more about how my my advisory service.

Regards,

George K
703-217-0805
gak555 @yahoo.com

Does Your Last Tough Loss Match This ?

Good Afternoon,

I did not have a bet on Texas vs Oakland. However, after three and 1/2 innings, Texas was up 7-0. The game was then postponed due to weather.


In order for a game to be officially on the books it has to go a minimum of 5 innings or 4 1/2 innings if the home team is leading. Texas bettors were SOL, and Oakland bettors were very happy.

This is the kind of craziness that comes with the sports betting arena. Whether you work with me or someone else, stay disciplined with your picks and money management. Frustrating things will happen when you bet for a living, but over the long haul they will average out if you have a good handicapper or system

Why I Played Boston Celtics and Memphis Grizzles Today

Good Afternoon,
As many of you know, I do not predict games. I look for favorable opportunities to be leading at halftime. Today I bet the first half money line for Memphis at +170 and Boston +185 This is a perfect setup for the way I bet.

There are four excellent teams and no one has any idea who will bring it on tonight. Will Paul Pierce be on fire ? Will Kevin Durant score 40 points and have the game of his life ? We don't know. We can easily go 0W-2L, 1W-1L or 2W-0L.

Proper Sports investing is a long term process. not a one night stand. Be careful of touts that give out 4-5 star plays, or the lock of the week. There is no such thing. If you follow my money management system, which is to flat bet every game 3-4% of your bankroll you will end up being a winner.

Even if we go 0W-2L tonight, it would not effect what I do. The beauty of sports betting is that there is always tomorrow.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com

Jumping Lines

Good Afternoon,
I noticed that the lines of our three plays today, and other games are jumping all over the place. This is not surprising. The public wants action. and with just a few basketball games remaining, baseball is the outlet. Since baseball is not as liquid as football and basketball, line fluctuations are to be expected, especially during the first two months of the season. At that point things will settle down.

We do not have a crystal ball to predict which lines will move towards or against our favor. One of our play today was +117 for the first five innings and it moved down to +107.

Sometimes line movements go in our favor, and sometimes they go agsinst us. What you shoud do is make the play regardless of line movements, even if the line drops below +110 which is normally our bottom acceptable bet.

Regard,

George
703-217-0805

Sports Books are on Vacation

Good Morning,
I do not mean the title of this blog to be taken literally. But once Football and Basketball(almost) are done, there is a lot less money bet on baseball. Some sports books lay people off until football starts again. Sports bettors simply do not bet as much on Baseball as the do the other sports.

That is great for us, because there are so many baseball games. Each team plays 162 games a year and the beauty is that even the best teams will lose 35-40% of their games. You can make a lot of money betting on baseball.

A win is a win. As long as you stick to your money management, you will make just as much money on games like the KC Royals vs the Baltimore Orioles as you would in a high profile football game that everyone is watching on TV.

I had one client that told me to contact him when Football season starts again because he is not into Baseball. I think he is making a big mistake. Our goal here is that we are sports investors looking to make a profit. Even if you hate baseball, you should make my recommended plays if your main goal is making money.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com.

Money Management

Thanks to client TG for this blog

Good Afternoon,

A unit is the amount that you bet. If you are a $20 bettor, $20 is your unit. If you are a $500 bettor, $500 is your unit.

If you increase your bankroll, you should increase your unit size (some people use
3% and others 4% of their bankroll. If you are betting 4% per game and your bankroll increases from $1,000 to $1,300 you should adjust your bankroll to reflect 4% of $1,300, which would be $52


However, if your bankroll decreases from $1,300 to $1,200 you do not lower your unit size . Keep the unit size at $52 until we rebound.


Regards,

George
703-217-0805

When is the Best Time to Place a Bet

Good Afternoon,
I just returned e-mailed to a sharp client who knows that an extra 5 or 10 points on a line can make the difference in profitability over the long run.

The line changes on 1st half and 1st five innings can move rapidly since there is not as much liquidity as there is it betting the full game.

I placed my two bets shortly after sending them out this morning. I used 5Dimes for both bets.

I got Atlanta Hawks at +115 and Minnesota at +125.

I just re-checked the lines and now they have the Atlanta Hawks at +105 (good for us) and Minnesota at +145 (bad for us).

The key question is "When is the best time to place a bet" Technically if you hover over the line changes you will find lines that are better or worse than the ones I send out.

Personally, I have no interest in doing that. Once I decide on a play, I set it and forget it. It really does come out in the wash because half the time I end up getting a better line by waiting, and half the time waiting can end up giving me a worse line.

That is a small price to pay when you are also concerned about your quality of life.

In my e-book I encourage shopping different books to get the best possible line. This can be very time consuming, especially if you are working full time. Reality, is if you set it and forget it, you will save yourself a lot of stress hovering over a computer.

There are a lot of professional bettors that will disagree with me and I understand that. But over time, you are probably better off just making the plays when you get them.

George

When to Bet Against the Best Pitchers

As a rule, I shy away from betting against the best pitchers in baseball
(i.e. Roy Halliday, Josh Johnson, CC Sabathia, Josh Johnson, etc.) There are just too many other opportunities out there. However, there is good money to be made if you carefully pick your spots when your team is going against a top notch guy. I have made plenty of money going against the Randy Johnsons and Roger Clemens of the world.

The best pitchers are always going to command a premium price and the lines on them is usually overinflated because of public opinion. That is good for us.

With that being said, if an opposing team is in good form and they have a good, not great pitcher, going for them, it is always woth a second look.

When a good pitcher is going against a great pitcher you will often see the good pitcher rise to the occasion and pitch a great game. It's a combination of competiveness, adrenaline and the challenge of going against a stud pitcher.

When I bet against a great pitcher there is a reason to do so. We will lose some and win some, but if we can be leading a game after 5 innings, it is worth the risk.


If you see me going against a great pitcher, MAKE THE PLAY.

Betting the First Five innings

I am not the author of the following article. Credit should be given to Dave Carey.

The average length of a Major League Baseball game is more than three hours.

That’s a long time to sit around and wait as players chew double bubble, pick at their cleats and play with their batting gloves. It’s even more aggravating when you have big money on one of these matchups and shaky relievers, overweight outfielders and boneheaded managers bungle the end of what looked like an assured win.

Those factors and more are the exact reasons sharps are flocking to fatten their bankrolls much faster by playing five-inning lines.

“The best part is that you do not lose value on either the favorite or the underdog, depending on which you want to bet,” Covers Expert Matt Fargo said. “For example, the highest moneyline (on Friday was) Boston -195 with Daisuke Matsuzaka. The five-run line is -200 so there is not a big adjustment.”

But value is just the tip of the iceberg.

For starters, five-inning lines can be played the same way you bet a full MLB game – either with a runline or a moneyline. Nearly all runlines are simply plus or minus half runs, while most moneylines remain similar to those of full nine-inning contests. Totals also are adjusted accordingly. Typically, if a total is around nine runs for a full game, it will be around five for a five-inning wager.

Perhaps what many smart bettors like the most, however, is the fact that five-inning lines take bullpens out of the equation.

As bad as a team like the Astros have been, blowing seven saves hasn’t helped them much. And then there are the pens of the Orioles, Angels, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mets and Dodgers. Each of those relief units has allowed at least 10 home runs already.

“The biggest reason to get involved with first-half lines or five-inning lines for MLB is the bullpen issue,” Covers Expert Scott Rickenbach said. “Let's say I have found a matchup where Team A is crushing the ball, has a solid starter on the mound, but has a weak bullpen. Let's say that team is facing Team B, who is struggling at the plate, has a weak starter on the mound, but has a stellar bullpen. I may not trust Team A to win the full game because the bullpen mismatch could come into play. However, playing the five-inning line takes the bullpen mismatch out of the equation and provides great value.”

And just like this season, there have been several surprising teams making big bucks for those bettors who have been smart enough to tail them.

The American League West is where five-inning bettors have made the most green playing the moneyline this season. The Angels are an absurd 14-7-3, followed by the hot Rangers at 13-6-4 and the solid Athletics at 11-8-5. And then there are the Mariners. Anyone smart enough to fade the light-hitting doormats after last season have been cashing tickets left and right as the losers from the Pacific Northwest are a wretched 6-16-2.

The Angels and Athletics have been doing it with defense and pitching, posting an ERA of just 1.88 and 1.46 during their early runs. The Rangers, meantime, have done it with their bats, jumping out to early leads as they are posting an average of 3.35 runs over that span. And then at the bottom of the standings are the Mariners, who can’t do anything well. The team is crossing home plate an average of just 1.54 times in the first five innings while allowing an average of 2.83 runs in those games.

But there is plenty of value found in other divisions around the league.

On the road, the Marlins are just 1-6-1 over the first five innings, giving up an average of 3.25 runs in those outings. And not to pile on, but the Mariners are a wretched 1-10 in similar contests. In home games, the surprising Royals are off to a hot start at 9-3-2 with five-inning lines. Meantime, the Cubs couldn’t be much colder, going 4-8-2 in the first half of their first 14 games at Wrigley Field.

April Results

Good Morning,
We had a very strong April. Our final record was 30W-25L, and we were up 17.17 units, That comes out to 54,5 % winners on our money line plays. If we can average 8-10 units per month over time, we will make a lot of money.

Here are a couple of observations that I made on the part of my clients:
1. One client felt really good about one of my plays and dumped 25% of his total
bankroll on that one play. The play was a winner so he made a chunk of change.
I'm glad that he won, but he made one of the fatal mistakes in sportsbetting.
He did not manage his money properly by betting just 3-4%, so it was a bad
decision

2. Some players are still cherry picking my plays and betting just on the ones they
feel good about. Not good. I can't predict winners, I can only focus on
probabilities.
Yesterday for example, we had a losing day. We kept losses to a minimum because
we picked up +1.72 units in our Seattle vs. Boston games.

The point is that will have some fortunate wins and some heartbreaking loses,
but you have to make all of the plays. Wins and loses are random. You can
expect hot streaks and cold streaks. There will be great winning streaks and
there will be those days when we go 0W-3L. Please stick to proper money
mangement and we will do fine over time.

With all that being said, I feel great about May. It is usually a very
strong month.

Regards,

George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com