Yesterday we were 3-1. Up 3.40 units (units are the amount that you normally bet). Certainly that was a good day for us. The one game we lost Missouri vs Texas was the game that I felt most strongly about.
We lost that game 71-58. I watched the whole game and it was very obvious that Texas came to play and Missouri did not. The point I am making is that our results are random. You never really know what is going to happen in a particular game. That is why it is so important to flat bet and make all of the plays. By focusing on Money Line underdogs we give ourselves a great chance to make money. As you know, winning 50% of our games is my stategy and it works.
Texas was hitting everything and Missouri could not find the rim. It made me think about a book I read about the stock market (A Random Walk Down Wall Street by Burton Malkiel).
All of the statistics I looked at indicated that Missouri had a great chance to be ahead at the half. Well, they got hammered. The point I am making is simply make all of the plays that I release.
We will have winning streaks, and we will have losing streaks. That is reality.
If you stay with the program, you will make money.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Friday, January 28, 2011
Why February Will be a Strong Month
February has been a very strong month over the years. With a full card of NBA and NCAAB games is it a lot easier to find weak lines that we can exploit. On any given day, especially Wednesdays and Saturdays the linesmakers have their hands full with over 40 plays which they have to set lines for.
You will see me looking as some great values in games that are not TV or Marquee games. I'm talking about the Hofstra's and the Tenn Techs of the world. The nice thing is that you can be a winner in many of these games. The payback is going to be the same or higher than a televised Maryland vs Duke game.
Friday night college basketball is usually confined to the Ivy League schools. Believe me, there are a lot of opportunities in the Ivy League. Most of thes games have half full arenas so the home court advantage/disadvantage that I discussed in an earlier blog is negligible
You will see me looking as some great values in games that are not TV or Marquee games. I'm talking about the Hofstra's and the Tenn Techs of the world. The nice thing is that you can be a winner in many of these games. The payback is going to be the same or higher than a televised Maryland vs Duke game.
Friday night college basketball is usually confined to the Ivy League schools. Believe me, there are a lot of opportunities in the Ivy League. Most of thes games have half full arenas so the home court advantage/disadvantage that I discussed in an earlier blog is negligible
Is there a Home Court Advantage in College Basketball
The answer is yes and no. The lines makers, particularly on Saturdays have the daunting task of setting lines for 30-35 games. As a general rule,they add three points to the home team. Certainly, if a game is being played at Duke or West Virginia where they sell out every game the home court can make a difference. That is one of the things I look at when I handicap.
If the line is right, I have no problem going against a home team that has major fan base if I see value in the underdog.
On the other hand, I historically have done very well betting on road dogs when the home team does not receive much fan support.
Last week I went to visit some friends in Towson, Md, which is just outside of Baltimore. Towson University is my alma mater and we decided to catch a game there.
Towson is a very poor team (4W-16L) and got blown out. You could hear a pin drop during the game. The point I am making, is that many colleges do not have a strong fan base. It's almost as if they are playing on a neutral court.
This is why you will see a number of my plays on road underdogs, if the home team has a poor fan base.
If you have any questions about my advisory service contact me by phone or email.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
If the line is right, I have no problem going against a home team that has major fan base if I see value in the underdog.
On the other hand, I historically have done very well betting on road dogs when the home team does not receive much fan support.
Last week I went to visit some friends in Towson, Md, which is just outside of Baltimore. Towson University is my alma mater and we decided to catch a game there.
Towson is a very poor team (4W-16L) and got blown out. You could hear a pin drop during the game. The point I am making, is that many colleges do not have a strong fan base. It's almost as if they are playing on a neutral court.
This is why you will see a number of my plays on road underdogs, if the home team has a poor fan base.
If you have any questions about my advisory service contact me by phone or email.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Why We Want to Avoid Halftime Adjustments
Yesterday we went 4W-0L. $100 bettors would have made $601.00 betting on the first half moneyline underdogs. Below are the plays I released yesterday morning. I'm not tooting my horn because we went 4W-0L. As a matter of fact my goal is to win 50% of our plays each month. But, I want to explain one of the reasons why I concentrate on first half moneyline underdogs. Good coaches like Rick Petino and Mike K from Duke are very good at making halftime adjustments. Our goal is to "sneak one in before we hit halftime." All I care about is does my team have a good chance at being ahead at the half
_________________________________________________________________________________
Good Morning,
Today we have four plays (all college basketball)
1. West Virginia vs Louisville - play WV takeback +168
(At halfime W.Virginia was ahead 37-26, but they lost the game 55-54)
Lousville came out in the second half with a ferocious defense.
2. Rhode Island vs St Louis - play RI takeback +115
(at halftime Rhode Island was leading leading 27-26, and they were the only
pick that won the whole game 59-57.
3. Houston vs Rice - play Houston takeback +160
(at the half Houston was leading 31-28, but lost the game 79-71
4. San Diego State vs BYU - play SD State takeback +158
(at the half, SD wad ahead 31-30, but lost the game 71-58
All Plays are 1st Half Moneylines
__________________________________________________________________________
Certainly, we will win some close ones and lose some close ones. One of the foundations of my betting style is to avoid halftime adjustments. They can have a huge inpact on the final score.
Below is a link to my blog. Feel free to contact me with your questions about my service.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
http://sportsinvesting-themoneylineway.blogspot.com/
_________________________________________________________________________________
Good Morning,
Today we have four plays (all college basketball)
1. West Virginia vs Louisville - play WV takeback +168
(At halfime W.Virginia was ahead 37-26, but they lost the game 55-54)
Lousville came out in the second half with a ferocious defense.
2. Rhode Island vs St Louis - play RI takeback +115
(at halftime Rhode Island was leading leading 27-26, and they were the only
pick that won the whole game 59-57.
3. Houston vs Rice - play Houston takeback +160
(at the half Houston was leading 31-28, but lost the game 79-71
4. San Diego State vs BYU - play SD State takeback +158
(at the half, SD wad ahead 31-30, but lost the game 71-58
All Plays are 1st Half Moneylines
__________________________________________________________________________
Certainly, we will win some close ones and lose some close ones. One of the foundations of my betting style is to avoid halftime adjustments. They can have a huge inpact on the final score.
Below is a link to my blog. Feel free to contact me with your questions about my service.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
http://sportsinvesting-themoneylineway.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Why You Can Make a Bundle Betting 1st Half Moneylines
Good Aftenoon,
I will use a live sample of one of our official plays tonight. San Diego State University is playing BYU. The pointspread for the whole game is SDSU +5 1/2 and the line for the first half is SDSU +3.
We don't care about the pointspread. We focus on teams that have a very good chance of being ahead at the half. The money line means that we have to win the first half outright without any points being taken into consideration.
Now check this out. The takeback on SDSU if they are winning at the half is +158
$100 bettors get their initial wager back and on top of that they get $158. That is very attractive. If SDSU is behind at the half $100 bettors are only down $100. Even if you are ahead 45% of the time at the half, you will make good money. With the first half spread only being +3, SDSU could easily be ahead at the half. Three points is one shot. SDSU can easily be leading at the half which gives us a very nice payback.
Our goal is to win 50% of our plays. That translates into an excellent return on your money. If you work with me you will make money. Part of my service is unlimited phone and e-mail interaction so you understand what to do.
If you have any questions you can call or email me.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
I will use a live sample of one of our official plays tonight. San Diego State University is playing BYU. The pointspread for the whole game is SDSU +5 1/2 and the line for the first half is SDSU +3.
We don't care about the pointspread. We focus on teams that have a very good chance of being ahead at the half. The money line means that we have to win the first half outright without any points being taken into consideration.
Now check this out. The takeback on SDSU if they are winning at the half is +158
$100 bettors get their initial wager back and on top of that they get $158. That is very attractive. If SDSU is behind at the half $100 bettors are only down $100. Even if you are ahead 45% of the time at the half, you will make good money. With the first half spread only being +3, SDSU could easily be ahead at the half. Three points is one shot. SDSU can easily be leading at the half which gives us a very nice payback.
Our goal is to win 50% of our plays. That translates into an excellent return on your money. If you work with me you will make money. Part of my service is unlimited phone and e-mail interaction so you understand what to do.
If you have any questions you can call or email me.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Sunday, January 23, 2011
NFL Playoffs - Sunday
Good Morning,
Personally I would like to see a Green Bay vs Pittsburgh Super Bowl. However the lines dictate that we play both underdogs today. We only play first half moneylines. Chicago is at +140 and the NY Jets are at +150. Those odds are too good to pass up.
The temperature in both games will be in the teens, with high winds. This tends to favor the defense. Could we be behind in both games at the half ? Sure.
But we are in the probability business not the prediction business. If we go 1W-1L we still make good money. You can win less than 50% of your games and still come out ahead. Let's see what happens.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Personally I would like to see a Green Bay vs Pittsburgh Super Bowl. However the lines dictate that we play both underdogs today. We only play first half moneylines. Chicago is at +140 and the NY Jets are at +150. Those odds are too good to pass up.
The temperature in both games will be in the teens, with high winds. This tends to favor the defense. Could we be behind in both games at the half ? Sure.
But we are in the probability business not the prediction business. If we go 1W-1L we still make good money. You can win less than 50% of your games and still come out ahead. Let's see what happens.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Friday, January 21, 2011
What Type of Return should you expect from your Sports Investing ?
What type of return should you expect from your Sports Investing ?
Let’s say you have a bankroll of $2,500 and that you are going to bet 4% of that bankroll on each bet. That would be $100 per bet. My clients and I strive to hit an average of 10 units per month. Sometimes we have a great month and sometimes we have a tough month. This is the nature and randomness of sports betting. The key is to look at your sports betting as a long term endeavor.
Let’s say you only win two units this month (a unit is the amount of money you normally bet). If that is the case you will make $200. If you divide $200 by $2,500 that is a monthly return of 8%. In one year you will double your bankroll just by averaging 2 units per month.
Sports Betting using money line underdogs is a powerful way to increase your income.
My approach absolutely works. By the way, sports winnings are not reported to the IRS because you will be dealing with offshore sportsbooks.
If you have any questions just contact me by phone or e-mail.
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
http://sportsinvesting-themoneylineway.blogspot.com/
Let’s say you have a bankroll of $2,500 and that you are going to bet 4% of that bankroll on each bet. That would be $100 per bet. My clients and I strive to hit an average of 10 units per month. Sometimes we have a great month and sometimes we have a tough month. This is the nature and randomness of sports betting. The key is to look at your sports betting as a long term endeavor.
Let’s say you only win two units this month (a unit is the amount of money you normally bet). If that is the case you will make $200. If you divide $200 by $2,500 that is a monthly return of 8%. In one year you will double your bankroll just by averaging 2 units per month.
Sports Betting using money line underdogs is a powerful way to increase your income.
My approach absolutely works. By the way, sports winnings are not reported to the IRS because you will be dealing with offshore sportsbooks.
If you have any questions just contact me by phone or e-mail.
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
http://sportsinvesting-themoneylineway.blogspot.com/
Monday, January 17, 2011
Beware of the Scamdicappers
There are a lot of sleazy people in the handicapping business. If you see anything like "Game of the Year", 5 Star Play. Lock of the week, Can't lose winner, etc. Stay away! These are salespeople not legitimate handicappers.
One common ploy is that they give out both sides of a game to people. Half of the people will win and half will lose. They continue this ploy by doing the same thing again with the winners. At some point they will hit the remaining winners with a "Lock of the Year" game. Many people that have won two or three in a row due to the process of elimination will feel confident and pay a lot of money for that next pick. It's not uncommon for these scamdicappers to charge you $50.00 or more for one pick.
Just check out www.covers.com and look at what some of the handicappers are charging for plays. It's outrageous!. Either make your own plays or find a handicapper that charges a reasonable fee. It's hard enough to win at sports betting, so do not put yourself at a huge disadvantage from the beginning. If you find someone honest and trustworthy they will charge you $1.00 or less for their picks. Buyer Beware!
One common ploy is that they give out both sides of a game to people. Half of the people will win and half will lose. They continue this ploy by doing the same thing again with the winners. At some point they will hit the remaining winners with a "Lock of the Year" game. Many people that have won two or three in a row due to the process of elimination will feel confident and pay a lot of money for that next pick. It's not uncommon for these scamdicappers to charge you $50.00 or more for one pick.
Just check out www.covers.com and look at what some of the handicappers are charging for plays. It's outrageous!. Either make your own plays or find a handicapper that charges a reasonable fee. It's hard enough to win at sports betting, so do not put yourself at a huge disadvantage from the beginning. If you find someone honest and trustworthy they will charge you $1.00 or less for their picks. Buyer Beware!
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
The Importance of Flat Betting
Last night we had Notre Dame vs. Marquette. The take back was a nice first half moneyline of +130. It was a good bet. Notre Dame was ranked 11th in the country and they have been playing very well.
So what happened? Marquette hit 12 of 17 from three point range. That is over 70%.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame hit just 3-16 beyond the three point line.
Mike Brey, coach of Notre Dame had this to say " Marquette was in a zone. They probably could have beaten an NBA team the way they were shooting 3's. I'm glad that a night like this only counts as one loss".
The point is, expect the unexpected. How many people would have predicted that there would only be 41 points scored in the Auburn vs. Oregon game. Very few.
When we place a bet based on using 1st half money lines we are shooting for a 50% winning percentage. We will have some close wins and some close losses. In the long run what we do works.
It is important to bet the same amount (flat bet) on every game. We never know when we are going to go on a big winning streak. Lately, we have been bouncing back an forth, close to breakeven. Stay the course and make all of the plays. In the long run we will definitely be profitable.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
So what happened? Marquette hit 12 of 17 from three point range. That is over 70%.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame hit just 3-16 beyond the three point line.
Mike Brey, coach of Notre Dame had this to say " Marquette was in a zone. They probably could have beaten an NBA team the way they were shooting 3's. I'm glad that a night like this only counts as one loss".
The point is, expect the unexpected. How many people would have predicted that there would only be 41 points scored in the Auburn vs. Oregon game. Very few.
When we place a bet based on using 1st half money lines we are shooting for a 50% winning percentage. We will have some close wins and some close losses. In the long run what we do works.
It is important to bet the same amount (flat bet) on every game. We never know when we are going to go on a big winning streak. Lately, we have been bouncing back an forth, close to breakeven. Stay the course and make all of the plays. In the long run we will definitely be profitable.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Saturday, January 8, 2011
Yesterday's Disaster - Lesson Learned
Hello All,
Yesterday we went 0W-2L. We played the NJ Nets and Cleveland State - first half Money Lines. Both of our teams were down by over 20 points at some point during the first half. I have never had anything like that happen. Needless to say we got hammered and lost both games.
The lesson to be learned is the importance of proper money managem=nt. The are going to be good days and bad days. Over time we will be winners because playing first half money line underdogs works. It does not matter whether you win or lose by
one point or tweny points. A loss is a loss and a win is a win.
My clients already know how to handle their money. Make sure you flat bet the same amount of money on each game. Don't get too excited when we go on a big winning steak or too low when we run into a tough patch.
Put in your mind thst you are not gambling, you sre a sports invetor focused on the long term. The good thing about sport betting is there is always tommorow.
If you are not yet using my service and are still interested contact me.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Yesterday we went 0W-2L. We played the NJ Nets and Cleveland State - first half Money Lines. Both of our teams were down by over 20 points at some point during the first half. I have never had anything like that happen. Needless to say we got hammered and lost both games.
The lesson to be learned is the importance of proper money managem=nt. The are going to be good days and bad days. Over time we will be winners because playing first half money line underdogs works. It does not matter whether you win or lose by
one point or tweny points. A loss is a loss and a win is a win.
My clients already know how to handle their money. Make sure you flat bet the same amount of money on each game. Don't get too excited when we go on a big winning steak or too low when we run into a tough patch.
Put in your mind thst you are not gambling, you sre a sports invetor focused on the long term. The good thing about sport betting is there is always tommorow.
If you are not yet using my service and are still interested contact me.
Regards,
George
703-217-0805
gak555@yahoo.com
Sunday, January 2, 2011
Those Pesky One Point Loses
Yesterday after getting off to a good start with a Penn State first half moneyline win, I thought to myself " We have a shot at getting the New Year started with a huge no loss day" My clients and I proceeded to lose our Wisconsin college bowl game first half moneyline bet 13-14 and our Notre Dame first half basketball moneyline game 33-34. The Notre Dame game by the way had a huge pay back of +190.
I've been wagering for a long time and have had many one point wins and one point loses. After calming down because of those two very frustrating losses I realized something.
The emotions are different when you win by one point versus when you lose by one point.
When you win by one point it is common to say to yourself " Oh man I got lucky or I'm glad I pulled that one out" on the other hand when you lose by one point the common reaction is " I can't believe that a-hole missed his last free throw before the half, or that the "idiot missed the field goal which would have put me ahead at the half".
The emotional reaction to a one point loss is much greater than the reaction to a one point win.
The point is that if you are a long term bettor and your main goal is making income these one point loses are part of what we do. I am sure that through the end of January I will have many more one point loses and one point wins.
Don't let emotions get in the way that sometimes can lead to doing stupid things, like doubling up on bets to make up for the tough losses, or dump a large part of your bankroll on a make up game.
Move on and focus on the next play. If you are using good handicapping skills and stick to your money management you will come out alright in the long run.
I've been wagering for a long time and have had many one point wins and one point loses. After calming down because of those two very frustrating losses I realized something.
The emotions are different when you win by one point versus when you lose by one point.
When you win by one point it is common to say to yourself " Oh man I got lucky or I'm glad I pulled that one out" on the other hand when you lose by one point the common reaction is " I can't believe that a-hole missed his last free throw before the half, or that the "idiot missed the field goal which would have put me ahead at the half".
The emotional reaction to a one point loss is much greater than the reaction to a one point win.
The point is that if you are a long term bettor and your main goal is making income these one point loses are part of what we do. I am sure that through the end of January I will have many more one point loses and one point wins.
Don't let emotions get in the way that sometimes can lead to doing stupid things, like doubling up on bets to make up for the tough losses, or dump a large part of your bankroll on a make up game.
Move on and focus on the next play. If you are using good handicapping skills and stick to your money management you will come out alright in the long run.
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